Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011603
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

                   VALID AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 6

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER PECOS RIVER BASINS THIS WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Rainfall in southeastern Texas was locally intense overnight.
Rainfall totals primarily fell within two hours. The highest
observed rainfall amount in our database was 6.6 inches near Greens
Bayou in the Houston metropolitan area. Other gage amounts of 2 to 5
inches were widespread in the Houston metropolitan area. Amounts as
high as 4 inches were also observed further north from Lufkin to
Longview. Rainfall amounts over the next five days should be much
lighter throughout most of Texas, and confined to the southeast.

The weather situation in New Mexico and far western Texas is expected
to remain active for the next few days with showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rainfall. Isolated amounts above 2 inches were
observed in several areas of New Mexico over the past 24 hours,
especially just north of El Paso and further north near Santa Fe.
Another very active day for showers and thunderstorms is expected
today as monsoon moisture remains in place. Saturday is also expected
to have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall throughout New Mexico. Lower amounts of rain are
forecast on Sunday through Wednesday, but monsoon moisture should
remain in place, and there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, and far western Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25
to 0.5 inches are forecast for the upper Texas Gulf coast and for
southwestern Louisiana. Lesser amounts are forecast for South Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inch are
forecast for portions of far western Texas and southern New Mexico.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for most of the rest of
New Mexico and for southern Colorado. Lesser amounts are forecast for
southeastern Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are
forecast for southeastern Texas and for western Texas, the rest of New
Mexico and for southern Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts
are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico and southern
Colorado, far western Texas, and southeastern Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast. The exception is far western Texas, where locally heavy rains
may provide further drought relief. Local runoff issues are possible
in New Mexico and western Texas over the next five days, but
significant river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin..
Locally intense rains overnight in the Houston metropolitan area have
caused elevated flows on Greens Bayou. Greens Bayou at Ley Road near
Houston (GBLT2) is expected to have a renewed rise to near flood stage
later today due to over 6 inches of rain in the upper portion of the
local basin.

...Trinity Basin...
Locally intense rains yesterday over the northeastern headwaters of
the Trinity pushed Sister Grove Creek near Blue Ridge (BVWT2) and
the East Fork Trinity at McKinney (MCKT2) to action stage. Both sites
have crested and are returning to normal seasonal flows.

...Rio Grande Basin...
With continued monsoonal activity in northern Mexico and far west
Texas, there is potential for minor flooding in the creeks feeding
into the Rio Grande mainstem. The Rio Grande near Candelaria (CDET2)
spiked early this morning with a locally heavy thunderstorm. Storm
activity is continuing in the area.

...Upper Rio Grande Basin...
Monsoonal rains continue throughout New Mexico.  Over this weekend,
northern New Mexico will remain convectively active with the heavier
periods being this evening and Saturday morning. Areas to watch for
minor flooding are around the Albuquerque/Santa Fe reaches and points
below Elephant Butte Dam through El Paso.

...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in many locations over New Mexico with
some locally heavy rains being reported.  Rain is expected to
continue through the weekend with the heaviest amounts anticipated
this afternoon.  The draws and creeks northwest of Carlsbad have
received heavy rainfall again overnight into this morning.  This
activity will be closely monitored for any additional heavy runoff
episodes. While some localized flooding has occurred the majority of
the area has received beneficial wetting rains.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Beneficial monsoonal rains continue over many location in New Mexico.
The continued convective activity may produce flashy runoff events
and possibly spike some forecast points to minor criteria levels
this evening through Saturday morning.  However, no significant
mainstem  flooding is anticipated at this time.  Conditions will
continue to be monitored closely.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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