Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 041607
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

                     VALID JULY 4 THROUGH JULY 9

...MONSOONAL RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER TEXAS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT RAIN TO RETURN NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Ridge continues to sit over the New Mexico area which will allow
the monsoonal flow to generate through the weekend.  Coastal
isolated storms are expected to develop over southeastern Texas
today and tomorrow during the afternoon and evening hours.  The
rest of the area may see an isolated shower but should be dry for
the majority of the weekend.

Next week a forecast for a frontal boundary could bring a line of
showers and thunderstorms from the Big Bend area through the
panhandle into Oklahoma.   This boundary will interact with strong
low level moisture advection in the lower levels while moisture
remaining available aloft to limit the capability of the cap to
reduce storm initiation.  The heaviest of the rainfall will be
concentrated to the north of the WGRFC area with the current
forecast, but the rain will stretch down into the area Monday into
Tuesday as it moves west to east.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 are possible for isolated areas of New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 for northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado are forecasted.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to an inch are
possible for northcentral Texas with close to an inch also possible
for northern New Mexico area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
forecasted for northcentral and western Texas.  An inch is
forecasted for areas near El Paso into New Mexico with 0.5 inches
possible for northern New Mexico.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas
to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of minor flooding
is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2)
has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor flood
levels and falling. Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into
minor flood stage.   Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs
outflow for several days, but an increase is possible next week due
to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream
at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream.  Still elevated
flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through
forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power gen today or Sunday.
This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and
Bon Wier this week, and falling stages at Deweyville by next
weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher
than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.  Monsoonal
rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash  flooding
where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective  activity.
Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$





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