Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211643
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

                VALID FEBRUARY 21 THROUGH FEBRUARY 26

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
EAST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front remains relatively stationary along the southeast
Texas coast. This system is tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
and bringing it into Texas.

Widespread rainfall with localized heavy downpours is forecast to
occur with this system over east Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas.
Soil moisture conditions are currently saturated because of recent
rainfall. The potential for heavy rainfall is expected to continue
into the weekend. Significant rises are possible over the upper and
middle Sabine and Neches river systems, along with other tributaries
located in northeast Texas.

This active weather pattern is expected to continue into the
weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 2 to 3 inches are forecast over east Texas.  MAP amounts
of 0.50 to 2 inches are also expected over central into east Texas.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over northern New
Mexico into southern Colorado.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts ranging from 0.25 to 1
1 inch are forecast over central into east Texas, with the heavier
amounts located in east Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
also forecast over northern New Mexico into southern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts ranging from 0.25 to
1.5 inches are forecast over central into northeast Texas.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast over the mountains of
southern Colorado.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
foreast over central and east Texas, with the heavier amounts
located over northeast Texas.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Rainfall yesterday pushed the headwaters greenville and quinlan into
flood stage, with greenville reaching moderate flood impacts.  Rain
should shift more towards the Sabine today but question remains what
part of the Sabine will be hardest hit.  Expect minor flooding in the
harder hit areas and would not rule out another isolated moderate
impact flooding on smaller creeks and tribs.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
2-4 inches fell widespread across the upper Trinity causing some minor
flooding impacts in the tribs and near Dallas on the Trinity River.
This will route down causing minor flooding impacts down the river as
the flood wave attenuates downstream.  Rain is still in forecast but
not projecting any rises into a higher category.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over a large part of the Neches
River system over the next 24 hours.  River levels, currently below
criteria, are forecast to rise into minor flood levels at various
locations.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rain to continue but should remain to East Texas for the most
part.  There are some high rain totals in the Hill Country that will
need to be closely monitored in case totals add up in isolated areas.
Otherwise the rest of the area should remain within banks.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

All information in this product can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/quick_briefing

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

SHULTZ


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