Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281624
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 28 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2

...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WGRFC AREA, RAIN
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Very warm temperatures and dry weather will continue across most of
the region through tomorrow, with some temperatures reaching the mid
80s across the state. By late tomorrow, moisture will begin to
increase across portions of Colorado and New Mexico, in advance of
a Pacific storm system approaching from the west. The upper level
storm system can be seen on the latest water vapor imagery, spinning
off the California coast. By late tomorrow/early Friday, this system
is forecast to move into California and dig southward over
the Baja California. As this system slowly approaches from the west,
showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over Colorado and
New Mexico and eventually become more widespread across most areas
along and west of I-35. Average rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch
could affect these areas from Friday-Sunday.

By Saturday, rains will begin to spread across the remainder of
the WGRFC region, mainly for areas along and east of I-35. Rainfall
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are expected for North and Northeast
Texas, while lesser amounts are expected for Central and
Southeast Texas. This activity may cause some minor flooding and
isolated moderate flooding in basins across Southeast Texas. This
especially applies to locations that are currently experiencing
minor flooding from last week`s rainfall event. By Sunday, a cold
front is expected to push south across Texas, this will allow
precipitation to quickly end across the region. Conditions will once
again dry out temporarily, until the next system arrives the end of
next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of southeastern New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of Colorado, New Mexico and West Texas.
Mainly for all areas along and west of I-35.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of North and Northeast Texas.
Lesser amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC region.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the
next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional
runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Bluff (MBFT2) will remain above criteria for
the next few days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers.
Flooding near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue
for the next few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) will
continue to slowly fall. Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) should
fall below criteria Wednesday.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above
minor flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases
upstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) has crested and will fall
below criteria this week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows.
Forecast rainfall later this week could generate some
runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across
Southeast Texas where soils are saturated. Widespread flooding is
not expected over the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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