Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231701
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 23 THROUGH JANUARY 28

...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER THE WGRFC
AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system moved eastward from northeast
Texas into the Carolinas the past 24 hours.  Some wrap-around
rainfall fell from eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas as this
storm moved away Sunday. Otherwise dry weather conditions occurred
across most of the WGRFC area.  A ridge of high pressure developed
west of Texas Sunday and is over Texas this morning.  The result is
that mostly dry weather will continue today through Tuesday morning
as the ridge moves eastward.

Additional wintry precipitation is forecast to return by tonight and
continue into Tuesday over portions of New Mexico and Colorado.  An
upper low will organize over Wyoming by Tuesday morning, with a
trough of low pressure extending westward into Colorado and Utah.
Moisture from the Pacific Ocean ahead of this trough will cause
precipitation to redevelop and persist over the western parts of the
WGRFC area at least tonight and Tuesday before letting up on
Wednesday.

As the Wyoming storm moves toward northern Iowa by Wednesday, a
cold front will be moving across Texas.  Initially there will not be
any rain associated with the front, but as the front encounters
better moisture over southeast Texas Tuesday night it may create a
few showers along and near the Texas Gulf coast into southwest
Louisiana. But dry air will follow the passage of this front, thus no
precipitation is expected from later Wednesday into Thursday and
Friday.

On Friday a trough of low pressure will approach Texas from the
north.  As the trough moves into Texas by Saturday, Gulf moisture
will try to return into Texas.  This may result in some light rain
over deep south Texas in the lower Rio Grande valley by Saturday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southern
Colorado into northern and western New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the western two thirds of New
Mexico and much of Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for central and northern sections of New Mexico and
most of Colorado, as well as over the middle and upper Texas Gulf
coast into southwest Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for western Colorado, as well as over the upper
Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over the lower Texas Gulf coast into deep south
Texas and northeast Mexico.

There continues to be some abnormally dry soil moisture conditions,
and a few locations in drought, in Texas on the latest U.S. Drought
Monitor. No doubt the rainfall the past week has helped to alleviate
some of the dry conditions.  In Texas, the area considered to be
abnormally dry is at 17%. Also, 4% of Texas is experiencing moderate
drought conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought,
particularly over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico
the drought monitor shows around 33% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought. The
precipitation forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The San Bernard River near Boling (BOLT2) has crested, but will
remain above moderate flood stage for the next 12 to 24 hours.
Sweeny has also crested and should fall below flood stage today.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Guadalupe near Bloomington (DUPT2) has crested and will
continue slowly falling, remaining above flood stage for the next
day or so.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at a number of locations in the Neches
River basin due to rainfall over the past several days. The Neches
River at Saltwater Barrier (NSBT2) has been temporarily driven
downward by northwesterly winds. After winds shift again today, the
river should recover back up towards action stage levels due to
routed flow. Tidally influenced fluctuations above action stage
should be expected throughout the week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding will continue for the next several days on the Sabine
River at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Inflows into Lake Livingston are on the decrease, allowing a slow
recession on the Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2). The gage
dropped more quickly yesterday due to northwesterly winds. Releases
of around 23,000 cfs out of Lake Livingston will keep the Trinity
River at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) above action stage
throughout the week.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Release out of Lake Amistad has brought higher flows to the Rio
Grande downstream to Falcon Reservoir.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River has crested at all gaged locations and can be
expected to continue slowly falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Nearly all remaining rivers have crested from recent rainfall. Drier
weather over the next five days will allow river levels to remain
nearly steady to slowly falling.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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