Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 180825
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
425 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...06Z NCEP SFC ANAL SHOWS A SERIES OF LOW PRES WAVES
TRACKING ALG A FNTL BNDRY ACRS FAR SRN NT2 WTRS. THE IR SAT IMGRY
IS STILL SHOWING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS EARLY THIS
MRNG WITH THE LIGHTNING PRODUCT SHOWING ISOLTD TSTMS ALSO
EXTEDNING N OVER MUCH OF OUTER NT2 ZONES. ALTHOUGH SFC ANAL DOES
NOT YET SHOW IT...00Z GFS CONTS FOR FORM TROF EXTNDG N OF FNTL
ZONE INTO NE NT2 WTRS ALG WITH PSBL WK LOW PRES FRMG THERE ASCD
WITH THIS AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS. THIS WILL BE SHRT TERM FTR MOVG
OUT TO E AND NE ALG WITH LAST OF LOW PRES WAVES LATER THU INTO THU
NIGHT. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT PASSES AT 01Z AND 0245Z SHOWS MOSTLY 5
TO 15 KT BUT SOME HIGHER WNDS 20 KT IN NE FLOW NE NT2 WTRS AND 25
KT NR CAPE HATTERAS...BUT BUOY 41025 IN THAT AREA ONLY RPTS 16G19
KT. HURCN EDOUARD WAS AT 39.3N 46.7W AT 18/06Z IN THIS MRNG BASED
ON THE LATEST NHC PRELIM ADVISORY...WHICH PUTS IT E OF MIM AREA
AND MOVG AWAY. STG HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVE E SAT AND SUN WHILE MAINTAINING A WKNG
RDG W INTO NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPCTD TO FORM
OFF THE GA AND SC CST SAT NIGHT...THEN PASS NE OVER THE NT2 OFSHR
WTRS SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND PASS E OF NT1 AREA MON. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NEW ENG AND NEW JERSEY COASTS FROM THE W
LATER SUN INTO SUN NITE...THEN MOVE OFSHR MON.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE ALL IN GUD AGREEMNT THRU THE
FCST PRD...EXCEPT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMNT WITH SPEED/TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW WHICH IS EXPCTD TO FORM OFF THE SE CST BY SUN.
THE GFS AND ESPCLY 00Z CMC GEM IS STRONGER AND WRN OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW WHILE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AREA FARTHER E. WILL START WITH
00Z GFS 10M WNDS THRU 18Z SAT AS COMPROMISE BTWN SLGTLY STRONGER
GFS 30M WNDS AND WEAKER ECMWF/UKMET WHICH WL GIVE MAX WNDS 30 KT
IN NE FLOW BHND CDFNT IN NRN NT2 AREA. THEN FOR REST OF FCST WILL
USE 50/50 BLEND OF STRONGER 00Z GFS WITH 00Z ECMWF FOR POPULATING
THE WIND GRIDS UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. OTRW USING EVEN
THE LOWER 10M GFS WNDS WITH THE LOW SUN INTO MON WOULD PRODUCE
GALES IN OUTER NT2 WTRS.

SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM ARE IN GUD
OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU SAT...BUT THE MWW3
BECOMES SVRL FEET HIGHER WITH THE SEAS IN THE NT2 AREAS DURING THE
SUN THRU MON NITE TIMEFRAME...DUE TO STRONGER LOW FCST BY GFS. WILL
USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WAM/MWW3 MDL THRU FCST AFTER
THU AFTER STARTING WITH ECMWF WAM WHICH HAS SLGTLY BETETR
REPRESENTATION OF INITL CONDS.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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