Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 161225
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
825 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. AS OF 11Z BUOY 44014
64NM E OF VIRGINIA BEACH HAD A GUST TO 37 KT WHILE BUOY
41013...FRYING PAN SHOALS HAD A GUST TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL DROP
BELOW GALE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES SLIDES N OF THE NT1
WATERS TONIGHT. THE 06Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z
RUN...AND CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BEGINNING ABOUT 00Z
SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT USED THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CMC. AS OF 11Z...THE OBSERVED
SEAS WERE MOSTLY WITHIN A FT OF THE NWW3 FCST VALUES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE LTST GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR TROF ALONG THE US E COAST...AND
THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A SFC FRNTL BNDRY OVR THE OFSHR WTRS.
THE LGTNG DATA INDC STRIKES OVR THE SRN NT2 WTRS...AS THE STG
FRNTL FRCG IS ACTING AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS...SO WL KEEP TSTMS IN
THE FCST FOR TDA. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC WNDS UP TO 35 KT OVR THE
W ATLC...AND 00Z GFS WNDS LOOK OK WHEN COMPARED WITH THE CRNT
DATA. ALSO...O2Z ASCAT DATA INDC SRLY GALES OVR THE GLF
STRM...AND IN N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNLT BNDRY. THE GFS INDC A
BF PD OF GALES IN THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE FNT...AND OVR THE
GLF STRM AHD OF THE BNDRY...THO WL BE E OF THE OFSHR WTRS EARLY
TDA. GFS 925 MB WNDS SHOW A VRY STG LL JET OVR THE FNT...ALTHO THE
STGST WNDS ALOFT ARE E OF THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS RSNBL
IN THE SHORT RNG...SO WL USE THE GFS FOR TNGT INTO FRI...USING 30M
WNDS OVR THE GLF STRM AND W OF THE FNT.

THE 00Z MDLS INDC THE STG SHRTWV ASSCO WITH THE STG FNT WL MOVE
NE OF THE RGN TDA...TAKING THE STGST WNDS WITH IT TO THE E.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z MDLS ALSO INDC THAT THE TAIL END OF THE BNDRY
WL STALL JUST E OF NT2 THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT W
INTO SUN AS THE SFC RDG ALNG THE ERN APPALACHIANS WKNS AND DRIFTS
TO THE N AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN COAST THEN TO
THE E. THE 00Z MDLS BEGIN TO DIFFER FRI AND SAT WITH A SHRTWV
MOVG ALNG THE SRN STRM THAT EJECTS OFF THE SE COAST ON SAT. THE
MDLS INDC THE SHRTWV WL DVLP A SFC LOW JUST S OF THE OFSHR
WTRS...THO DIFFS SHOW UP ON THE INTNSTY AND LOC OF THE LOW. THE
GFS HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER SOLN...AND HAS ALSO SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE SFC FEATURE. IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE WEAKEST
SOLN WITH THE SHRTWV...AND ALSO THE WNDS. THE 00Z ECWMF SOLN HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE INTNSTY AND TRACK OF THE LOW AND
ASSOC SHRTWV...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS. THE
PREV FCST FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLN IN THE EXTENDED PD FM LATE FRI
ON...AND ATTM AGREEING WITH THAT SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WL CAP WNDS
AT 30 KT DUE TO LOW CONFDC WITH THE ECWMF GALES...AS THE MDL AGRMT
IS EXTREMELY GUD. OTRW WL STAY WITH THE 00Z IN THE SHORT
TERM...THEN THE ECWMF IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE FCST PD.

SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z MWW3 AND ECWMF WAM ARE INIT SEVL FT HIGH OVR
THE GLFME...AS MDL WNDS WERE INIT A LTL HIGH. OTRW THE GUID SEEMS
RSNBL. PLANNING ON USING THE MWW3 INTO FRI...THEN FAVOR THE 00Z
ECWMF WAM LATE FRI TO THE END OF THE FCST PD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE PREFERRED WX MDL SOLNS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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