Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 290219
MIMATN

.Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
.NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1015 PM EDT TUE 28 MAR 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

At 00Z, a 1010 mb surface low was centered about 50 nm or so
east of Toms River, New Jersey. The latest models are in very
good agreement that this low will gradually strengthen as it
tracks eastward across the offshore waters tonight into early
Wednesday. The 12Z/18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF are slightly stronger
with the associated north to northwest winds across the outer
NT1 and northeastern NT2 waters late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The 12Z ECMWF lends support to the GFS in forecasting
winds briefly reaching gale force across ANZ905 and ANZ910 late
Wednesday night inot early Thursday. Forecast confidence is
slightly above average with these gales. Models then diverge at
the end of the week and through the weekend with the upper level
shortwave/ possible closed upper low forecast to exit the mid
Atlantic coast early Saturday and pass east across the waters
later Saturday. Versus its previous run the 18Z GFS trended
slightly northward with the associated surface low, and is
closer to the ECMWF, which has shown good run to run continuity.
Given this trend along with the 12Z/18Z GEFS support, have
updated the Friday through Monday wind grids with a 50/50 blend
of the past two runs of the ECMWF. Then adjusted these blended
winds upward by 10 percent or so to retain the gales as
previously forecast. Both the 18Z Wavewatch III and 12Z ECMWF
WAM were underdone with wave heights east of Georges Bank at
00Z. Elsewhere across the NT1 and NT2 waters, both sets of
guidance are within a foot of the latest ship and buoy
observations.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale Wednesday night into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Gale Wednesday night into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.

$$

.Forecaster Clark. Ocean Prediction Center.


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