Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 021913
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A STNRY FRNT ACRS C AND SRN NT2...AND
THE GOES VIS IMGRY INDC CNVCTV WX ALNG THE BNDRY OVR THE UNSTABLE
ENVRMT IN NT2. THE LGTNG DENSITY PROD INDC SCTRD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING MENTION IN NEXT PKG. THE ASCAT WND
RTRVLS FM 15Z INDC AN AREA OF 30 KT OVR SRN NT2 AHD OF THE
BNDRY...AND THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WNDS ARE INIT OK WHEN COMPARED WITH
THE DATA. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM ARE INIT A LTL WKR...BUT THE 12Z
ECWMF CATCHES UP FAIRLY QUICKY. PREV ISSUES WITH THE GEM OVRDVLPG
LOWS DUE TO CNVCTV FEEDBACK STILL SEEM TO BE AN ISSUE...AS IT
OVRDVLPS THE LOW AFTER IT PASSES TO THE E OF THE WTRS. THE 12Z GFS
SEEMS TO BE HNDLG THIS CRNT FRNTL WAVE E OF CAPE HTRS ABT THE
BEST...SO WL BE USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST. HOWEVER...WL BE
USING 10M WNDS N OF THE GLF STRM.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE VIS IMGRY INDC AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NE
GULFMEX WITH SOME DISORGANIZED CNVCTN. CRNT OBS INDC ABT 25 KT OF
WND AND 9 FT SEAS...AND THE GFS WNDS INDC 30 KT NR THE CTR. THE
12Z MDLS ALL INDC THE LOW WL MOV NE...AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COASTWED NGT INTO THU. DVLPT WL DEPEND ON THE TRACK...AND A TRACK
TO JUST E OF THE GUID CUD BE A CONCERN FOR FURTHER DVLPMT. THE 12Z
UKMET/GEM TAKE A TRACK TO THE SE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND ARE A
LTL MOR PRGSV WITH THE TMG...AND INDC GL FRC WNDS IN NT2 WED INTO WED
NGT...AS THE LOW TRACKS THRU THE UNSTABLE ENVRMT OVR THE GLF STRM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECWMF/GFS...AND PREV FCST FAVORED THE NRLY
TRACK...SO ATTM PLANNING ON STAYING CLOSER TO PREV FCST.

OTRW...THE 12Z GFS RMNS IN RSNBL AGRMT INTO THU...BEFORE BCMG A
BIT MORE PRGRSV THAN THE REST OF THE 12Z GUID. THE GFS SEEMS A BIT
TOO FAST...AS THE UPR LVL PTTN IS SLGTLY AMPLIFIED...AND WOULD
INDC A SLOWER PRGRSN OF SYSTEMS. THE 12Z ECWMF IS IN LINE WITH THE
REST OF THE GUID...SO ATTM PLANNING ON SWITCHING TO 12Z ECWMF ON
12Z THU...AND CONTG WITH IT THRUT THE RMNDR OF THE PD.

SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS HV BOTH
INITIALIZED LOW E OF CAPE HTRS...WHERE THE ASCAT INDCD 30 KT...SO
PLANNING ON BOOSTING SEAS INIT. OTRW THE MDLS AGREE WELL INTO 12Z
THU...BEFORE DIFFS ARISE MAINLY DUE TO THE FASTER GFS WX MDL. TO
RMN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERRED WX MDL TRENDS...PLANNING ON
USING THE 12Z NWW3 INTO 12Z THU...THEN TRANSITION TO THE 12Z ECWMF
WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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