Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 270650
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
250 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRES IDGE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN
NT2 WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTSM OVER THE FAR SRN NT2 WATERS.
AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE MON EVENING WITH VERY GOOD COVERAGE OVER
OFFSHORE/COASTAL WATERS INDICATED WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MDL FCST FIELDS AND BUOY/SHIP DATA.

THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z MODELS. THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRES WHICH IS FCST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS TODAY THROUGH WED EVENING. THE 00Z GFS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS WITH A TRACK OF THE LOW VERY
CLOSE TO THE 12/18Z FROM YESTERDAY AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF
GALE WINDS. THE 00Z UKMET...SIMILAR TO ITS PAST FOUR OR FIVE RUNS
CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
LOW...ALTHOUGH EVEN IT HINTS AT WINDS CLOSE TO GALE OVER FAR ERN
PORTION OF ANZ905 WED EVENING. THE 00Z NAM/GEM AND ECMWF ALL
INDICATE GALES...ALTHOUGH THE LOCATIONS VARY WITH SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS WITH THE ECMWF CLOSEST TO THE GFS. WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE EXISTING GALES
TONIGHT INTO WED...WITH CONFDC LEVEL MDT. DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM THU AND BEYOND...THE MODELS ALL REMAIN CONSISTENT ON
CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING SE AND BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY OVER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATANTIC AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE LIFTING NE LATE SAT/SUN. AT THE SFC...LOWER PRES WILL
PERSIST INLAND OVER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC WHILE HIGH PRES
BUILDS S NORTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NE TO E WINDS OVER ESPECIALLY THE WRN NT1 WATERS AND
FAR NW NT2 WATERS THU AND FRI. THE 00Z GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS WINDS
TO GALE OVER HUDSON CANYON/S OF LONG ISLAND WATERS LATER FRI.
SINCE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WILL CONTINUE TO
CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE
SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE NT1 WATERS SLOWLY WEAKENS. IN
SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS USING THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS
WITH A FEW EDITS TO KEEP WINDS AT 35 KT OVER NRN NT2 WATERS
TONIGHT INTO WED.

.SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
CONTINUED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MWW3 FCST VALUES.
OVERALL...THE MWW3 VALUES LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCLUDING OVER THE GALE AREAS TONIGHT/WED AND OVER THE
NT1 WATERS IN NE/E FLOW FRI INTO SAT AND WILL PLAN ON USING THE
MWW3 THROUGHOUT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID-ATLANTIC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE WED.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE WED.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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