Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 181412
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
712 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

12Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
PZ5/PZ6 WATERS...W/A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE NE SRN CA WATERS. GIVEN
06Z GFS/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/THE PRIOR 00Z MODELS
RUNS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IN THIS
INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AND CONTINUE W/WARNING HEADLINES AS IS.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

06Z NCEP FINAL ANAL SHOWED A WK AND DSIPTG CDFNT ENTERING THE
CNTRL CA WTRS WITH WK HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE WTRS BHND THE
FNT...WHILE HIGH PRES RMNS CNTRD WELL W OF SRN CA WTRS. OPC ALSO
ANALYZED A DVLPG HURCN FORCE LOW 46N155W WITH A 977 MB PRES
TRACKING NE. AN ASCAT-B PASS FM 0449Z STILL SHOWED SOME NW 20 TO
25 KT IN NE WA WTRS AND TO THE S AN AREA OF NW 20 TO 25 KT FM NR
POINT ARENA EXTNDG S INTO THE WTRS SW OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS IS IN
AREA OF ENHANCED GRADIENT BTWN INTERIOR CA TROF AND THE RDG TO THE
W. THE CURRENT FCST APPRS ON TARGET.

00Z GLOBAL MDLS REMAIN IN GOOD AGRMT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH THE
MOST SGFNT EFFECTS OVER THE PZ5 WATERS. THE HI PRES RDG MOVS OVR
PZ5 AREA TODAY WHILE THE STG LOW PRECEDED BY AND ASCD STG FNTL
SYSTEM APCH THE PZ5 WTRS FM THE W. THE 00Z GFS APPRS TO HAVE BEST
HNDL ON THE INITL INTSTY OF THE LOW AND REMAINS CONSISENT IN ITS
TRACK AND TIMING OF FNT SPREADING GALES ACRS THE WA WTRS N OF CAPE
SHOALWATER AND THE OUTER WTRS BTWN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CAPE
LOOKOUT TWD EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE ASCD STORM AND PSBL
HURCN FORCE WNDS WITH THIS LOW SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE W AND NW AS
THE LOW CNTR TRACKS INTO THE SRN GLF OF AK. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
END BY SAT. OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND CONFDC IN GALES IS MDT TO HIGH. THE FNT THEN MOVS E OF WTRS
SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND LOW TRACKING W AND THEN NW OF WA
WTRS WHICH WL PUSH ANOTHER FNT THRU PZ5 AREA SUN AND A LOW PRES
TROF MON. 06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPRT WK LOW FRMG ON TROF AS
SHOWN IN GFS AND NON- NCEP MDLS. DSIPG LOW PRES...WHICH ONCE WAS
THE HURCN FORCE LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MOV ACRS WTRS LATER TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

OVER THE PZ6 WATERS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA BUT IN WKNG FORM...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WL MOV
THROUGH MON. OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PZ5 WATERS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE.

.SEAS...WILL GENERALLY FAVOR 00Z ENP NWW3 OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF VERSION SIMILAR.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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