Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 010745
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1245 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
POPULATED WIND GRIDS WITH 30M WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS TIL 12Z
SUN...THEN 10M WINDS THEREAFTER.

LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWING AREA OF NWLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PZ6 WATERS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
E AND SE ACROSS THE SRN PZ5 AND PZ6 WATERS TODAY AND SLOWLY
WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CSTL TROF WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CNTRL CALIF COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO 25
KT TO CONTINUE OFF THE COAST AND INTO THE ADJACENT OFFSHR WATERS.
TROF WEAKENS MON.

MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGRMT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FRONT TO
APPROACH THE PZ5 WATERS SUN NIGHT. FRONT MOVES INTO PZ5 WATERS
MON...AS ITS ASSOC LOW PRES MOVES NW OF THE AREA. FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PZ5 WATERS MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ON TUE.
FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS LOW PRES MOVES NW OF THE AREA. STILL SOME DISCREPENCY AS
TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SIMILAR IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH THE GFS BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. UKMET...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IN ITS PREV RUN IS NOW FASTER AND FURTHER TO THE NW. WILL
SPEED UP THE GFS BY 6 HOURS BEGINNING 12Z WED AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY GALES TO
THE NW PORTION OF THE PZ5 WATERS WED AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
NW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS ARE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE E AND SE QUAD OF THE LOW.


.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.
BUOY 46002 RPTNG 15 FT LAST HOUR...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF NEAR 18 FT
TO THE S. POPULATED WAVE GRIDS FROM 00Z ENP THRU THE PERIOD...WITH
A 6 HOUR TIME SHIFT STARTING 12Z WED TO LINE UP WITH TIME SHIFT
FOR WIND GRIDS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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