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000
AGPN40 KWNM 200806
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1206 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Strong low pres expected to move northeast across Northern
California and Southern Oregon today, and move inland later this
afternoon and into tonight. Latest global models in good
agreement with timing and strength of the low, with gales
expected in the south and southeast quadrant of the low as it
moves across the offshore waters. Will use GFS for wind grids
with this system.

Second low then expected to follow the same track as the previous
low Monday night into Tuesday. Models in decent agreement with
the track and the strength of the low, with the GFS being
slightly further south with the track than the ECMWF/UKMET. Once
again gales are expected to develop in the south and southeast
quadrant of the low as it moves across the offshore waters. ECWMF
stronger this run and is in line with the GFS winds. Will lean
towards the ECMWF/UKMET solution for this system in the wind
grids.

Still some differences noted with a small system to move towards
the Central California offshore waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday. GFS still the strongest of the models, while the ECMWF
continues to be the weakest. UKMET a good compromise of the two
being close to the GFS track but a little weaker than the GFS.
Will use the GFS for the wind grids with this system, but will
tone down winds a bit. Forecast confidence not particularly good
with this system.

Model differences galore for Thursday night through Friday night
with the potential of a series of low pressure systems to affect
the northern offshore waters. GFS and ECMWF seem to be in general
agreement with the synoptic pattern, while the UKMET seems to
diverge here. GFS the stronger of the two solutions. Will lean
towards the ECMWF solution for the wind grids for this pacakge,
since that was preferred for the last package.


.SEAS...Both ENP and ECMWFwave still underdone with seas in
association with strong low west of the offshore waters. Will
bump seas up around 3 ft for the first period of the forecast
across the Northern and Central California offshore waters.
Otherwise, will use mostly ENP for the wave grids through 12z
Thursday, with the exception of a 50/50 blend of the ENP and
ECWMWFwave between 06z Wednesday and 12z Thursday. Beyond 12z
Thursday, will lean more towards the ECMWFwave for the remainder
of the forecast.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Monday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today into Tuesday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today into Monday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Monday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Monday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Monday night.

$$

.Forecaster Achorn. Ocean Prediction Center.


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