Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 031503
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
803 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

12Z OPC SFC SHOWED A HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WHILE A LOW PRES TROUGH WAS INLAND OVER CA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IN THIS INTERMEDIATE UPDATE
THROUGH DAY 4. THE ONE CHANGE WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF GALES
MON NIGHT IN THE FAR NE PZ6 WATERS. WHILE THE 06Z GFS DOES HINT AT
POSSIBILITY OF GALES SNEAKING INTO THE NE PZ6 WATERS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD ALONG W/THE ECMWF SHOWING A FEW AREAS OF 30 KT
WINDS...THE FACT ITS OVER A SMALL AREA AND AT THE VERY END OF
PERIOD MAKES IT REASONABLE TO DOWNPLAY WARNING POTENTIAL FOR NOW.
WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z MODEL CYCLES TO DETERMINE IF THEY NEED TO BE
REINTRODUCED DOWN THE ROAD.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLDY AREAS ARE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL REGION BUT THERE ARE NO
LGHTNG STRKES ASSCTD WITH THEM AND THE RADAR HAS NO INDC OF TSTMS
OVR THE REGION. AT 06Z HGH PRES 1029 MB W OF THE REGION HAS RIDGE
INTO THE WTRS WHILE A WEAK CLD FRNT LIES ACRS THE CNTRL WTRS. THE
PRES GRDNT IS SLCK AND OBSVD WINDS RANGE BETWN 10 AND 20 KT. LAST
ASCAT PASS AT 0523Z HAD 20 KT WINDS OVR THE NW PARTS.

MOST OF THE ERNGY IS STILL CONFINED IN AN UPPRLVL TROF TO THE N
WHILE THE TROF XTNSION S-WARD TO THE SRN WTRS HAS JUST SOME LITTLE
ENRGY NR THE CNTRL WTRS. UPPRLVL RIDGE LIES W OF THE UPPLVL TROF
AND ANOTHER UPPRLVL RIDGE CVRS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE TO THE
W WILL SLIGTHLY STRENGTHEN AND THAT WILL FORCE THE TROF TO BE
SQUEEZED AND INITIALLY DIP DOWN INTO THE NRN WTRS...THE CORRSPNDNG
SFC FEATURE WILL BE A LOW MOVING ACRS THE ERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE ERNRY WILL SHIFT INLAND AND ALLOW THE INLAND TROF TO
STRENGTHEN AND THAT WIL FORCE A SLIGHT TIGTENING OF THE PRES GRDNT
RESULTING IN ELEVATED WINDS JUST BEFORE END OF FCST PRD.

GLBL MDLS STIL IN AGRMNT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT SLIGHT DIFFS IN
THE XTNDD PRD AS MOST OF THE MDLS DO NOT SHOW ELEVATED WINDS TWD
END OF FRCST PRD. WILL SEEK MDL THAT SHUD ELEVATE WINDS NR THE END
OF FCST PRD. ALL THE MDLS AGREE ON LEVATED WINDS OVR THE ERN PARTS
OF THE CNTRL REGION TWD END OF FCST PRD XCPT ON THE STRENGTH.
GFS/NOGAPS AND CMC HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS UKMET HAS 30 KT WHILE
ECMWFHR HAS TO 25 KT. WILL USE MDL WITH HGR WINDS...GFS. IN THE
SHORT TERM HGH PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP MOVING SLOWLY E-WRD AS THE
INLAND TROF BUILDS SLOOWLY TOO. THE HGH WILL STRENGTEN IN THE
XTNDD PAS IT GETS CLSR TO THE REGON AND THAT WILL TRIGGER ELEVATED
WINDS OVR THE ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL REGION.


.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BTWN 6 AND 10 FT...HGHST OVR THE NRN WTRS.BOTH
NWW3 MULTI GRID WV MDL AND THE ECMWFWV AGREE WITH OBS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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