Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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192
AGPN40 KWNM 060354
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
754 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVD INTO CSTL WA/OR WTRS AS PER 00Z FINAL SFC
ANALYSIS WHILE THE WEAKER TRAILING PORTION IS MOVG INTO THE SFC
RDG COVERING PZ6 WTRS. WILL THEREFORE LET CURRENT GALE WRNGS OVR
INNER PZ5 WTRS EXPIRE.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE OVERALL MDLS ARE IN AGRMT EXCP LATER TUE
INTO WED WHEN 18Z GFS CAME IN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRES MOVG
NWD TO W OF PZ5 WTRS VERSUS PREVIOPUS RUN WITH 12Z RUN AGREEING
MORE WITH FASTER AND STRONGER ECMWF/UKMET. HWVR THIS APPRS TO HAVE
LTL EFFECT ON TIMING OF FNT MOVG INTO PZ5 WTRS. WILL THEREFORE LET
CURRENT WIND GRIDS STAND BASED ON OLDER 12Z GFS. PERSISTING UPR
RDG NR W COAST WILL CONT TO DIVERT LOW PRES AREAS NWD TO W OF AREA
AND WITH SLY FLOW ON E SIDE OF SYSTEMS WILL CONT TO GO WITH WINDS
LIMITED TO 30 KT WITH APCHG FRONTS IN NRN WTRS. NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR EVENING UPDATE.

SEAS...12Z/18Z ENP NWW3 AGREES WELL WITH 00Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS
WI 1-2 FT AND WITH 12Z GFS WINDS PREFERRED WILL CONT TO GO WITH
12Z ENP NWW3.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
MOST OF THE PERIOD...W/THE ONLY DIFFERENCE NOTED TUE NIGHT INTO
WED IN REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE PZ5
WATERS. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PZ5/NRN PZ6 WATERS TONIGHT CLEARS E
OF THE WATERS TONIGHT W/GALES OVER MAINLY THE INNER PZ5 WATERS
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS A RESULT. HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
W/A WARM FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE FAR NW PZ5
WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 12Z GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GALES
OVER THE FAR NW PZ5 WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN ONCE THE FRONT
LIFTS NE...W/THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF KEEPING GALES NOT TOO FAR NW OF
THE WATERS. THAT SAID WILL CONTINUE TO MAX WINDS OUT AT 30 KT
GIVEN THE FACT WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED W/WAA. HIGH PRES RIDGING
REBUILDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IN THE TUE TO TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE ABOUT
12HRS FASTER THAN THE 12Z GFS/CMC W/A FROPA ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...W/THE 12Z GFS/CMC NOT DOING SO UNTIL LATER
TUE NIGHT. GIVEN CHOICE TO USE GFS SOLUTIONS THAT LAST FEW DAYS
AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT GLOBAL GUIDANCE COMES BACK INTO AGREEMENT
TOWARDS WED MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND FAVOR 12Z GFS/CMC SOLUTION
HERE. BY LATE WED ANTICIPATE YET ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTING THE
PZ5/NRN PZ6 WATERS BUT AT THIS TIME THE FEATURE DOESNT LOOK TOO
SIGNIFICANT.

.SEAS...GENERALLY FAVORED 12Z NWW3 OVER THE PERIOD GIVEN CHOICE TO
FAVOR 12Z GFS WINDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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