Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 110953
SWOD48
SPC AC 110952

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY/DAY 5. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM THE ARKLATEX
SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ERN STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE GREATEST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY/DAY 6 WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
TO THE MS VALLEY. THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
CNTRL STATES FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 INTO THURSDAY/DAY 8 WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS RANGE...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2016


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