Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 280854
SWOD48
SPC AC 280853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SCNTRL
STATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WHERE ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA COULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY/DAY 5 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
LOW. ELSEWHERE FROM TUESDAY/DAY 5 THROUGH THURSDAY/DAY
7...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN STATES WHERE THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SEVERAL POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME IN THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS
FORECAST STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

..BROYLES.. 08/28/2015



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