Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 240541
SWODY1
SPC AC 240540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST GA  ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VICINITY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A SFC LOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A TRAILING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST/COASTAL GA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

ADDITIONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

...SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS DAYTIME TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 F...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND EVEN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAST
STORM MOTION OF ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COMBINED WITH PW VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED SHALLOW CONVECTION...PERHAPS WITH
LIMITED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL IND/KY...AND QUICKLY TRACK EAST
ACROSS OH AND WRN KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AROUND 100-250 J/KG SBCAPE MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF 850 MB FLOW
/55-65 KT/ AND THE STRONG BACKGROUND PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 11/24/2014




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