Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 171611
SPC AC 171610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z


Thunderstorms are expected tonight across much of the Midwest from
Missouri to Ohio, with more isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible across parts of the central Rockies.

A broad upper trough is deepening across the western states today,
while a band of strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds extends
from the Great Basin into the Midwest.  Southerly low-level winds
over the MO/IL/IN will help moisten/destabilize the air mass,
leading to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after
dark.  One cluster of convection will move across northern IN and
southern Lower MI this evening.  At this time, no severe storms are
anticipated with this activity.

Late tonight, 12z model guidance continues to indicate a risk of
thunderstorms developing after 10z near an approaching cold front
over north-central MO and central IL.  Forecast parameters suggest
some risk for hail in the strongest cells, but limited
areal/temporal confidence precludes an upgrade at this time.

..Hart/Bunting.. 11/17/2017

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