Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 010535
SWODY2
SPC AC 010533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TN TO VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES...NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO VIRGINIA.

...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS FORECAST SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION DRAPED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WSWWD ACROSS WV/KY/MIDDLE TN AT 18Z...FARTHER
NORTH THAN FRIDAY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE
OPTED TO ADJUST CAT1 SEVERE PROBS NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE DELMARVA.  AS A RESULT...STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS VA/WV.  WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT STRONG...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THIS
AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WV INTO WRN VA WHERE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS.
 ESEWD STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTH TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TX BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.  WHILE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS
REGION IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE OFFSHORE OVER THE NWRN
GULF BASIN.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

$$


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