Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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797
ACUS02 KWNS 300503
SWODY2
SPC AC 300502

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT
NEWD FROM OREGON INTO ALBERTA FROM THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE WA/BC COAST.  AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.

...MT...
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MT TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT.  STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY SHOW
TEMPERED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW LOCATED LARGELY WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME OVER
WESTERN MT.  GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIURNALLY PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE LOBE OF ASCENT EXITS
NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

..SMITH.. 09/30/2016

$$



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