Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 021724
SWODY2
SPC AC 021723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA.  A FEW STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS.

...TEXAS...

LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AS 500MB SPEED MAX DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA.  WITH TIME STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL LATER DAY3.  PRIOR TO THIS FEATURE EJECTING INTO TEXAS...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO
NEAR THE ARKLATEX.  ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET SHOULD DRIVE
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
LLJ SHOULD VEER TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND A FEW STORMS COULD
SPREAD INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST COULD SUPPORT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WARM FRONT WILL ORIENT ITSELF NEAR OR JUST
INLAND FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  HIGH QUALITY WESTERN GULF BASIN AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S.  WHILE NEAR-SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL POSE A RISK OF EXHIBITING
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY COULD STRUGGLE
AS LLJ AND STRONGER ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED WELL INLAND.  EVEN SO...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.

..DARROW.. 12/02/2016

$$



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