Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 281642
SWODY2
SPC AC 281641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EAST-CENTRAL AL THROUGH CENTRAL GA AND INTO NC AND SC...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX GULF
COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from the
Texas Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. Strong winds and hail will be the
main threat with these storms. The greatest threat appears to be
from far east-central Alabama through central Georgia and into North
and South Carolina during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Synopsis...
A band of enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow will exist across
the southern Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. This
is on the southern periphery of the upper trough over the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will stall from
central TX into the TN Valley. A moist airmass will exist to the
south of this boundary from the TX Gulf Coast vicinity through the
southeastern U.S. Where stronger heating can occur in tandem with
weak shortwave impulses migrating through southwesterly flow, strong
to severe storms will be possible from the TX Gulf Coast through
northeastward through the Carolinas.

...Southern Appalachians to the NC Coastal Plain...

A weak surface trough will reside across the North Carolina Piedmont
into northern GA with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to
upper 60s. Where stronger heating occurs, moderate destabilization
is expected. Additionally, deep layer shear will be somewhat
stronger over this region compared to further southwest at around
35-45 kt. As a result, isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon. Steep low level lapse
rates and PW values greater than 1.5 inches could allow for some
damaging wind gusts. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind
profiles will favor upscale growth and some bowing segments could
emerge. Midlevel lapse rate will be modest, from about 6.5 to 7.0
deg C/km, so some marginally severe hail also will be possible.

...TX Gulf Coast to MS/AL...

Deep layer shear and forcing across this area will be rather weak on
Monday. However, where pockets of stronger heating can occur in the
vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries and the stalled cold front,
strong storms will be possible given a moist and unstable
environment. The lack of stronger deep layer shear will limit a more
organized severe threat, but some gusty winds and small hail will be
possible with stronger cells.

..Leitman.. 05/28/2017

$$



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