Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 100822
SPC AC 100820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible across the
central Gulf Coast states and vicinity on Monday.

Broad but relatively low-amplitude flow field aloft will continue
across the Continental U.S. on Monday, as short-wave troughing
shifts across the Midwest and eventually the Northeast.  As this
occurs, a southeastward-moving cold front should cross the
Appalachians during the afternoon, and then off the Atlantic and
Gulf coasts overnight.  In the wake of this front, a cold
continental airmass will spread across a large portion of the

While differences in the southward and eastward speed of the surface
cold frontal advance are evident between the NAM and GFS, it appears
that showers and a few thunderstorms will occur near the advancing
front across the central Gulf Coast states.  Weak lapse rates -- and
thus modest CAPE -- should hinder storm intensity, despite ample
shear for robust updrafts.  The anticipated meager instability and
uncertainty with respect to model differences preclude highlighting
any severe risk areas.

..Goss.. 12/10/2016

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