Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 290704
SWODY3
SPC AC 290702

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY FROM
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND MID MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK EXTENSION OF
THE TROUGH BACK INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EXTENDING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THESE REGIONS BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

CONCERNING FLORIDA...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING A
TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY/DAY 1
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY/DAY 2. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
BY NHC TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 3
POTENTIALLY TO THE WRN COAST OF FL ON THURSDAY/DAY 4. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE NHC FORECAST TO SOME EXTENT AND
SUGGESTS THAT THE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM MAY
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE DAY 3
PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH
AND ACTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. ATTM...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
TOO SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE ADDITION OF A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA.

..BROYLES.. 08/29/2016

$$



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