Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 210643
SWODY3
SPC AC 210642

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY3 PERIOD AS 70KT 500MB SPEED MAX EVOLVES WITHIN THE SERN QUADRANT
OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.  NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SPEED
MAX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AT 24/00Z WITH THE GFS LAGGING STRONGER
FLOW ACROSS NM.  REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
THE DRYLINE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING
ORGANIZED ROTATING DEEP CONVECTION.  LATEST THINKING IS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY 21Z PRIMARILY BETWEEN I-20 AND I-90
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AND MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED
ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER...NWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS.

LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISLODGE DUE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE
EWD INTO CNTRL NEB...SWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN TX PANHANDLE AT PEAK
HEATING WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT BUT SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
50S ALONG ERN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE DRYLINE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AIDED BY AN EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  AS A RESULT...SQUALL
LINE MAY EMERGE OVER CNTRL KS/WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR I-35
LATE.

..DARROW.. 04/21/2014



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