Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 250729
SWODY3
SPC AC 250727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WHILE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TUESDAY...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

...EASTERN CONUS...
SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERAL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT OCCURRING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND EXIT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE OTHERWISE REACHING PARTS OF GA AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND THE CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BOTH BE WEAK. A VERY
LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEAR UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 09/25/2016

$$


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