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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022031
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Andres continues to spin down this afternoon, and a timely 1553
UTC SSMIS microwave overpass revealed a partial eyewall with the
remaining portion located over the northern quadrant.  The initial
intensity is set at 75 kt which agrees with the Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The rate of weakening is
expected to increase as Andres moves over even cooler waters during
the next couple of days.  An inhibiting thermodynamic environment
and anticipated southwesterly shear near the 48-hour period should
also contribute to the prompt demise of the cyclone.  Andres is
expected to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or so with
dissipation in 4 days or less.  The NHC official forecast follows
a blend of the SHIPS model and the IVCN multi-model intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimated to be at 305/9 kt.  A break in the
mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast
to develop during the next couple of days which should induce a turn
toward the northwest and north.  After the 36 hour period, Andres is
expected to turn northeastward, then east-northeastward on Thursday
while moving slowly within the weak low- to mid-level flow as a
shallow, sheared system.  For the remaining forecast period, Andres
is expected to ultimately drift toward the east-southeast within the
peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated several hundred miles
to its east.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and sides with the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.3N 123.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.1N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.8N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 19.9N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.0N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 19.9N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 19.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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