Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is off the W coast of Africa with axis extending from
15N17W to 04N17W, moving W at 10 kt. The 700 mb analysis shows a
good wave reflection. Although the wave is in a favorable wind
shear environment, the CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture
with large patches of dry air, which in part hinders convection at
this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 09N31W to 00N32W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows
a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave
reflection. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N53W to 05N54W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery
shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in
the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good
wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air is
present in the wave`s environment inhibiting convection. There is
a very pronounced 700 mb wave reflection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near
04N19W to 04N30W...then resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N33W
and continues to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-08N between 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is centered over central Texas near 31N97W with an
associated cold front. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate to
strong convection over central and south Texas, and Louisiana.
Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is also over the NW Gulf
of Mexico from 27N-30N between 93W-95W. One to three NM visibility
with fog is also being reported over portions of the NW Gulf.
Elsewhere, a 1017 mb high is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico
near 27N84W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf.
10-20 kt SE surface winds are over the W Gulf. Scattered showers
are over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of 21N. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level
moisture is over most of the Gulf, except over S Florida and the
SE Gulf where strong subsidence is noted. Expect the cold front to
reach the Texas coast today, 29/1200 UTC, with more showers and
convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon
trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered
moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Further N,
scattered showers are inland over, Honduras,and Guatemala.  A
surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to
17N91W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean. An upper
level trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with
showers. Also expect continued convection over the SW Caribbean,
and Central America.

HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the Island,
hindering convection. However, patches of low level moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, will produce isolated showers
over the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will influence the
island on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
30N45W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic just E of the
Canary Islands with scattered showers. Three tropical waves are
over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section for more details. Saharan dry and dust is noted across
much of the Atlantic Ocean N of 10N and E of 50W. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level trough is centered N of the Leeward
Islands producing upper level diffluence with scattered showers
from 20N-24N between 55W-65W. Expect over the next 24 hours for
more showers to be over the Atlantic in the vicinity of the
Leeward and Windward Islands.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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