Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 021806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING.
THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 16W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST AIR N AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ON ITS SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR 50W...MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST WITHIN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

FORMER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVED INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO EPAC WATERS
NEAR 06N84W AND HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MAINLY
OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N18W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 05N30W TO 03N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. SEE SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
BORDER BETWEEN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE EXTENDS A TROUGH S TO THE
EASTERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE
CONUS TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
TO SW OF THE LOW TO 25N89W. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS EAST OF 87W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
THE N-NW BASIN ALONG WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT. WATER VAPOR
AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
IN THIS REGION OF THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY WED MORNING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE GOM SECTION
EXTENDS S TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE REMAINDER BASIN
IS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N82W TO 14N83W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS N
OF 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A TONGUE OF
MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXTENDING TO CUBA...JAMAICA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TONGUE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ISLAND
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL ISLAND.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N62W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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