Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 14N ALONG ROUGHLY 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
103W AND 110W. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 09N OR 10N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT
IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE LOW PRES/WAVE S OF 10N UNDER
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 13N115W TO 08N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A 1009 MB
LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W
AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. LOOKING
AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W EARLY TUE THEN SLOWLY
DEVELOPING...POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...LATE IN THE WEEK
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
101W TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE. WHILE ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE LOW DUE TO AN
ADDED COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL
START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW
PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL SHIFT WNW
PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W THU THEN NW
OF THE AREA FRI.

ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION NEAR A LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY NEAR 09N117W HAS
DISSIPATED AND SHIFT WEST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY SHEAR SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE...LEAVING A WEAK EXPOSED
CENTER NEAR 10N115W. WESTERLY SHEAR IS ACTING ON A QUASI-
STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N131W. THE CONVECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE...BUT REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW ITSELF APPEARS TO BE MORE
DISORGANIZED THAN BEFORE AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
THROUGH LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. RELATED SEAS
TO 9 FT WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY...BUT AN AREA OF WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8
FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER AN AREA FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 130W
IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO 22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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