Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201545
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Warning...Hurricane Kenneth is at 16.3N 127.4W at 1500
UTC, moving W, or 280 degrees at 13 kt, with a minimum central
pressure of 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts
to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed
within 75 nm of center surrounded by scattered moderate to
strong convection elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line
from 18N128W to 12.5N127W. Kenneth is expected to remain a
hurricane for a couple of days before moving over cooler waters.
Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under
WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for
additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 86W moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along 09N
within 150 nm of the wave, but strong convection is observed
futher W between 90W and 93W.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N to 15N along 108W, and has
been progressing W at about 12 kt over the past 24 hours.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along 10N
within 120 nm W of the wave. This wave is becoming difficult to
locate and may soon be dropped from the surface analysis.

A 1010 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
08N116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 180 nm E of the low center.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends W along 10N from the far SW Caribbean
to the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 11N92W, then
turns gently WSW through the embedded surface low previously
described at 08N116W TO 08N119W where it loses identity. The
monsoon trough resumes SW of Hurricane Kenneth near 14N130W to
beyond 11.5N140W.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within
150 nm either side of a line from 07N77W to 08N88W to 13N92W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm either side of a line from 07N90W to 09N98W to 09N110W,
and within 90 nm of 09.5N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander E to W
across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this
week with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the
trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to
SE orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A
moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja
California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each
evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja
California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will
persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a
moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center
that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight
and again on Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 ft
downstream of the Gulf waters near 15N95W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast
through this week.

Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon
trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3
to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends from 32N133W to near 17N115W.
Except as previously mentioned in the above paragraphs, moderate
to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon
trough and W of 120W. N swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas is
currently observed along 32N between 125W and 132W will
propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, and reach
across the waters  of 24N W of 128W on Mon night with seas
associated with tropical cyclone Kenneth moving into the area
later in the week.

$$
Nelson



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