Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 230900

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 UTC Tue Jan 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong winds will increase to
gale force this evening, with a continuous period of sustained
gale force winds expected over the Gulf until Fri morning. Winds
should peak early Thu with maximum seas of 15 ft. Propagating N
to NE swell will cause seas to build to 8 ft or greater as far S
as 06N and as far W as 110W by Fri morning. Strong winds over the
Gulf should diminish briefly Sat evening as high pres centered
over the SE United States shifts E into the western Atlc. Another
gale is possible late in the weekend as a strong cold front
crosses the western Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the East
Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details.


A surface trough extends from 10N74W to 06N80W to 06N95W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 06N115W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is from 03N
to 08N between 76W and 80W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 13N between 127W and 140W.



Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds are expected across
the Gulf through tonight before diminishing by Wed evening as
high pres to the north is weakened by low pres moving into the
NW United States. Winds will increase once again this weekend as
high pressure builds to the northwest of the region.

Decaying NW swell are still maintaining seas of 8 to 10 ft off
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. This large swell is
producing high surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja
California and mainland Mexico. The area of seas greater than 8
ft will slowly subside through Wed. Then, a fresh set of NW
swell will propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja
California Norte Thu night. Seas associated with this swell will
peak near 12 ft Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW winds are
expected off the far NW waters of Baja California Norte late this
week as high pressure builds east toward the region.


Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong each night tonight through
Fri night as high pres ridges SE from the Gulf of Mexico over
the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle offshore
flow will prevail. Gentle southerly winds will prevail S of 09N
for the next few days.


The pressure gradient between high pressure centered just N of
the 30N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to strong winds from the ITCZ north to 25N and
west of 115W with peak seas of 13 ft, as confirmed by a pair of
recent altimeter passes. Combined seas of 12 ft or greater will
continue to prevail within the region of stronger trade winds
that are currently from 11N to 20N W of 120W, in a mix of
dominant long period NW swell and short period NE wind waves.
Seas 8 ft or greater cover nearly all the the open waters N of
05N and west of 106W. The area of fresh to strong trades and 12
ft seas prevailing north of the ITCZ will gradually erode
westward through early Wed as high pres N of the forecast waters
weakens, as a cold front crosses the NW waters. High pressure
building back in behind the cold front will once again cause the
coverage of the fresh to strong trades to increase early Thu
through Fri night.

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