Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
253 AM MST Mon Oct 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this
week. A trough of low pressure moving through western states
mainly north of us will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to
the area later today and tonight, but many locations will miss
out. Dry conditions return late Tuesday, with more near record
high temperatures possible the second half of the week.


.DISCUSSION...Modest moisture will combine with a mid level
impulse from the eastern Pacific to bring clouds and a few showers
later today and tonight. A few lightning strikes possible, but in
general expect limited rainfall amounts. Best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be north of our area.

Otherwise, we continue to see well above average heights and
thicknesses for late October as we bounce between zonal flows
under lows lifting through northern tier states alternating with
strong high pressure through the desert southwest and northern
Mexico. Recent record and near record high temperatures will back
off a few degrees with the current system, then high pressure
brings near record highs back the second half of the week.

Thursday looks like the hottest day with the latest 95 degree day
ever in the calendar year likely for Tucson International Airport.
98 is not out of the question, and we even have a small chance at
100 at TIA. That`s just unacceptable.

The soonest we would see a break in this unseasonably warm pattern
would be the first week in November. Until then, we will challenge
for the warmest October on record.


.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
FEW to SCT clouds at 10-15k ft AGL this morning, becoming SCT-BKN at
around 10k ft AGL this afternoon. ISOLD to SCT -TSRA/-SHRA mainly
this afternoon, with a slight chance of -SHRA into the early morning
hours Tuesday. Outside of any thunderstorm wind gusts, SFC wind
mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. A few lingering showers are
possible Tuesday afternoon in the White Mountains. Dry conditions
will prevail late Tuesday into the upcoming weekend. Above normal
daytime temperatures will continue through the period, with 20-foot
winds less than 15 mph outside of any thunderstorms.


.CLIMATE...Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
through the end of the month. The current forecast high of 96 degrees
at the Tucson airport for Thursday October 27th, if correct, would
mark the latest 95 on record by one day. Current record is October
26, 2001. The rest of the month will continue to see us challenge
for the warmest October on record.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Areal coverage of storms today extended a bit
further west than on Saturday. As of 9 pm, all activity had ended
across the area. The afternoon Tucson sounding was a smidge wetter
than 24 hours earlier with values just under 1". 24/02z layered
precipitable water imagery showed 1"+ values extending from Tucson
west into southern CA. Overnight should be precip free most of the
area thus will make adjustments to the forecast on the evening

A disturbance on the southern end of the upper level trof off the
west coast will approach the area Monday afternoon and then move
across the area Monday night into early Tuesday. Dynamics associated
with this feature will produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mid-afternoon Monday into Monday evening, especially
from Tucson east where there will be better upper level diffluence.
Highs Monday will be slightly cooler and will it end the extended
90+ degree streak in Tucson.






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