Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020348
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT EVEN STRONGER WINDS
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS
WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST AREAS EXPERIENCED A BREEZY AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND SAFFORD AIRPORT BOTH REPORTING A
MAX GUSTS OF 31 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...89 DEGREES AT TUCSON AND 81 DEGREES AT DOUGLAS.

CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A FEW CLOUDS STILL LINGERING IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND THE
TUCSON AREA...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A SHALLOW TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES DOWN 4 DEGREES IN TUCSON TOMORROW...WHILE EASTERN AREAS
SUCH AS DOUGLAS WILL SEE A FEW DEGREE BUMP IN TEMPERATURES. BRINGING
BOTH AREAS TO AROUND 7 OR 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDS THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING...STARTING 10 AM
THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS. EVEN STRONGER SURFACE WIND AFT 02/18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION..SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LATEST
MODELS TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF ARIZONA.
MODELS SHOWED A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWED A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A RETURN IN STRONG WINDS AND SIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
    AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
    DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

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