Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270911
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. WE`LL MANAGE TO
WARM UP QUICKLY WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

HIGH ENERGY PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. A FAIRLY WET 7 DAY PERIOD IS A GOOD CALL IF YOU LIVE IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
SOUTHERN LATITUDES SUCH AS OURS MAY BE AT THE MERCY OF A FULL
CUT-OFF LOW. TIMING AND TRAJECTORIES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITHIN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS AS WELL AS TRYING TO ARRIVE AT ANY
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS COMPARING OPERATIONAL RESOLUTIONS. THERE ARE
MANY TIMES WHEN WE CAN DO A SOLID JOB FORECASTING 6-10 DAYS EVEN
WITH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS AT OUR LATITUDE...BUT THIS IS NOT ONE OF
THEM. OVERALL THE TRENDS ARE GETTING DRIER AND DRIER THIS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AT 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY...OTHERWISE
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER




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