Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280216
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
716 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THIS DRYING
TREND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
AROUND THE CENTURY MARK IN WARMER LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY SO HAVE TRENDED POPS
DOWN...EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE LEFT ISOLATED MENTION
THRU 06Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN DRIER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MID/UPPER MOISTURE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP SOME CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS IN
PLACE. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
DRYING WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RH LEVELS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A MODERATION IN
RH LEVELS AS MOISTURE TRIES MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE AREA
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES AWAY FROM THE AREA. MINOR
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN WELL BEHAVED THUS FAR...WITH
ONLY BRIEF RAINFALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SOME STORMS MAY
MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY AREAS OVER
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL LIMIT STORM
POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF
DRY...STABLE...AND WARM WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK IN WARMER LOCATIONS BY
THE WEEKEND. MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS

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