Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

000
FXUS65 KTWC 311003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HAPPY HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER WARM DAY TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS BEING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF HALLOWEEN RECORD HIGHS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAND. SO EXPECT THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY VERSUS EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THIS AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH THE NEAR RECORD HALLOWEEN WARMTH COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

AS OCTOBER CLOSES OUT ON A NEAR RECORD WARMTH NOTE...NOVEMBER WILL
START OFF WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL
FINALLY. THE PACIFIC TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE A GIVEN THIS WEEKEND. WHAT IS NOT A GIVEN IS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKING THE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
BLENDED THE WETTER NAM/NAMDNG5 MODELS WITH THE NOT AS WET GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOR THE VALLEYS AND
A BETTER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE 1"-2" OF SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TUESDAY THE COLDEST MORNING AS A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS EAST OF
TUCSON GETTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEREAFTER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH RESPECTS TO
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INFLUENCING OUR
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY/WARMING TREND SOLUTION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 11-15K
FT AGL THRU 31/19Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/20Z. SELY SURFACE
WIND AT 5-15 KTS FROM KTUS WEST...WITH SELY SURFACE WIND AT 10-17 KTS
AND GUSTY EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY
TODAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL THEN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.CLIMATE...HALLOWEEN LATELY AS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY WARM ONE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR TUCSON...FROM 1894 TO 2007...THERE
WERE ONLY TWO HALLOWEENS /1916 AND 1999/ WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. COUNTING TODAYS FORECAST HIGH OF 92 DEGREES...THIS WILL BE THE
THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS /2008 AND 2011/ WITH HALLOWEEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.