Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270415

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 PM MST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Plenty of moisture around this week with an increasing
chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunders across
Southeast Arizona.


.DISCUSSION...Earlier this afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms developed generally from extreme southeastern Pima
county and across eastern Santa Cruz county. These showers and
storms then moved rapidly northwest across parts of the Tucson metro
where they caused damage, with power lines and trees down earlier
this evening, mainly in the area from 1st Ave to Campbell Ave and
from River to Prince. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall
occurred in this same general area, with amounts ranging from around
0.50 -0.80 inches, with only an isolated report above 1.25 inches.
The Tucson Intl Airport reported a total of 0.11 inches so far for
the day.

Radar mosaic from around the region is detecting a batch of light
rain that extends across much of northeast Pima county and further
to the southeast into extreme eastern Santa Cruz county and
southwest Cochise county. All of this activity will continue to
march to the northwest during the remainder of the evening and will
diminish in the process. The inherited POP forecast for the rest of
tonight is still in good shape, so no changes are planned at this
time. However, will continue to monitor satellite and radar trends
and will make adjustments if warranted.

As of 04Z (9 PM MST), temperatures across the region ranged from the
upper 60s to the mid 80s, with the Tucson Intl Airport reporting a
temp of 80 degs, after reaching an afternoon high temp of 102 degs,
which was exactly normal for this date. The rainfall resulted in
cooling temperatures in several locations, especially for the Tucson
metro, so will make some adjustments to the short term hourly
temperature grids to reflect the most recent trends.

For details beyond tonight, please refer to the previous discussion


Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA. The best timing for -TSRA/-SHRA
is mostly until around 27/08Z. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will still be
possible area-wide late tonight into early Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, cloud decks generally ranging from 10k-15K FT MSL, and
surface wind terrain driven mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through the rest of this evening and overnight. Greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should then occur Monday
through next Saturday. Otherwise, daytime minimum relative humidity
values will generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent
with fair to good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds into Monday as
well as Thursday through Saturday will be terrain driven at less
than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be
from the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph. The strongest
speeds Tuesday and Wednesday should prevail from shortly after
sunrise into the early afternoon hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Weak subsidence behind a minor mid level feature
shifting north of the area will probably limit thunderstorms to
mainly mountain areas Monday.

A deeper and stronger fetch around high pressure reconsolidating to
our east should push our thunderstorm coverage up as we reinforce
available moisture and draw in weak inflections around the high.






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