Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 092124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE 09/12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN...WHICH DEPICTED A RATHER WEAK DETACHED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH MODELS TEND TO AGREE WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE PREVAILING PATTERN. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNTIL TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COULD BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHERE THE MOST RECENT GFS OUTPUT SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ITS STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY THAT WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY AS THE 09/12Z
ECMWF CURRENTLY DOES NOT AGREE WITH THAT SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTAIN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BREEZES RANGING FROM 5 TO
15 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT AROUND KTUS STAYING A BIT ON THE HIGHER END.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST BREEZE PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE MORNING NEAR KTUS WITH SOME
EARLY TO LATE MORNING GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY LOW...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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