Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 041625
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND...AS IS TYPICAL FOR US ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH AND ALSO THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE 04/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING SHOWS A TEMPERATURE INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 4 DEGREES C
AT 700 MB AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ALLUDED TO...THERE MAY BE A VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT
THE CENTURY MARK AT KTUS TODAY...BUT UPPER 90S LOOK LIKE A BETTER
BET AT THIS TIME...MIGHT GET A LITTLE HELP FROM THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TODAY. SHOULD ALSO POP A FEW
CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
INTRUSION WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME GUSTY ESE/SE WINDS TO THE AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE MET
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELY/SELY AT
12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY
TODAY FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151...ALSO...A NEW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAPID WARM-UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
TODAY. 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES MAX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT
166.5DAM...ENOUGH TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT THE FIRST 100 AT
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL...BUT SOMETHING IN THE 97-99 RANGE IS MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MAY HELP PUSH THINGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO 100 THOUGH (WITH TIA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX THICKNESS CORE).

THE MAIN STORY WILL THEN BE THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN WINDY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FRIDAY. BLOWING DUST A CONCERN BOTH AFTERNOONS...BUT OUR PART OF THE
STATE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
POSSIBLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BUT WE WILL ALSO
SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...DROPPING 20 DEGREES
OR MORE COMPARED TO TODAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THE
BEST FOR OUR AREA...BUT WE MIGHT MANAGE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CUT OFF...SO IT WILL LINGER
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. WE`LL PICK UP THE FRONT
SIDE OF ANOTHER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ150-151.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ151>153.

&&

$$

CARLAW
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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