Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 292051
AFDTWC

ZCZC PHXWRKAFD 291903
TTAA00 KPHX DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF TUCSON THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOTTER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WERE SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT A
FEW HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS OF PIMA COUNTY
AROUND THE TOWNS OF WHY AND AJO. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAINED RATHER
LIGHT SO THE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSE LIKE IN NATURE WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT SO FAR. LATEST HRRR CONTINUED TO SHOW SMALL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. MUCH MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MORNING UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING AT KTWC. AT ANY RATE...LOOKING AT MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALREADY. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
RATHER ACTIVE DAY FOR SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN PULSE IN NATURE. THEREAFTER...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EACH DAY AS A DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL
READINGS AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12 KFT AGL. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDUG AND KOLS TERMINALS
LIKELY AFFECTED DIRECTLY.  FOR THE KTUS TERMINAL TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AROUND THE AREA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF ONE
AFFECTING THE TERMINAL 29/22Z THRU 30/02Z.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
STRONGER STORMS.  AFTER 30/05Z SKIES CLEARING WITH A REPEAT ON
SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD AND SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT.  OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS.  AFTER AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATE EVENING HOURS.  PRIME
CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW MOTIONS.  THIS
BASIC IDEA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED.  STARTING MONDAY STORMS WILL TEND TO BE
MORE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WET AND AS IS TYPICAL MAY PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH SUNDAY GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS ARIZONA.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE
150...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE.  THIS FLOW WILL ALSO STEADILY
PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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