Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 220940
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS IN SOME EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE LOW
NOW DIGGING JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO BEFORE CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR
TEXAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WITH PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES.

A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BASIN TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL DEEPEN INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. COLDER AIR
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL OVER INTO ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AS
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THIS COLDER AIR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE TEMPERATURES FOR COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. EASTERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROBABLY NOT HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH PUSH INTO THE STATE TO BRING A
FREEZE TO METRO TUCSON. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN OUTLYING AREAS AND
COLDER LOCATIONS AROUND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
GENERAL WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY BUT LOSES
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES SO. THE GFS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL IMPULSE THAT RIDES INTO THE BUCKLING RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
MORE CONSTANT PERFORMANCE FROM A LESS AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF AND HINTED
AT BY 144HR UKMET BLEND. THIS FEATURE MAY ONLY BE A PRECURSOR THAT
HELPS SET THE TABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN
REGION DAYS 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
WITH THE RECENT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND OVERNIGHT
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THRU
22/16Z AT KOLS. OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH 22/18Z. THEN A FEW
CU POSSIBLE THRU 23/03Z...PRIMARILY AT KOLS AND KDUG TERMINALS. SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE 20 KFT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 23/12Z. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CARLAW/MEADOWS




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