805
FXUS61 KALY 031029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
629 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase late
this morning through the afternoon ahead of a cold front and some of
the thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail. A drier and less humid air mass will build in for
Independence Day and the opening of the holiday weekend.  It will
become hotter and more humid on Sunday with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms early next week ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- SPC has included all of eastern NY and western New England in a
  Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will impact eastern
  NY and western New England today with damaging wind gusts and
  large hail the primary hazards.

As of 620 am EDT...

Convection ahead of a pre-frontal sfc trough continues to move
across the Tug Hill Plateau into the western Adirondacks. This
quick update is to speed up the PoPs this morning for isolated-
scattered showers/thunderstorms. Some small/sub-severe hail may
occur with these as the initial convective parcels are
elevated. The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis had Showalter
Stability indices of -1 to -4C over the southern Dacks and
western Mohawk Valley with MUCAPES 500-1000 J/kg.

The sfc trough is ahead of a cold front and a short- wave
trough. The mid and upper level trough centered just south of
James Bay continues to dig equatorward. The faster progression
of the front and short- wave may thwart the extent and coverage
of potential severe thunderstorms. The forecast area is now in a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) based on the latest SPC Day 1
Outlook. Our confidence continues to be the greatest from from
the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region/southern VT south and east for
the severe threat, but some threat continues northward.

Low and mid level heights will be falling ahead of the short-wave
and cold front.  H500 temps cool to about -12C to -16C based on the
NAM/GFS.  The left front quad of a cyclonically curved mid/upper
level jet streak will provide dynamical support. Mid level lapse
rates steepen to 6.5-7.5 C/km by the afternoon especially from
the Capital Region/Berkshires north and west. The latest 00Z
HREFS indicate mean SBCAPEs of 750-1250 J/kg are over eastern
NY and western New England in the very late morning into the
mid/late pm. MLCAPES vary from 500-1500 J/kg (highest values
close to I-84). 0-6 km mean bulk shear values are about 35-40
KT. The CAMs vary in the coverage and extent of convection. Also
the timing looks faster on the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest with areas
from ALY south and east having the best coverage. Sfc dewpoints
vary with the NAMnest showing sfc dewpoints as high as 70F near
KPOU. This looks a little high, as mid 50s to mid/upper 60s
look common across the region. Model soundings from the CAMS
indicate steep low-level lapse rates with notable DCAPE 600-1000
J/kg over the forecast area. Multi-cells forming into a cluster
or two and small lines look possible with damaging winds and
marginal severe hail. Can`t rule out an isolated low-topped
supercell, but hodographs are straight with weak low-level
veering. Some splitting cells and right moves are possible. We
included enhanced wording for small hail and gusty winds over
the entire area mainly noon to 6 pm.

The severe threat looks to diminish by 6-8 pm. Some lingering
isolated showers/thunderstorms may linger before the mid level
trough passage.  Highs today were favored close to NBM numbers with
lower to mid 80s in the valleys (a few upper 80s near KPOU) and
70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- High confidence for fair and dry weather for Independence Day
  with comfortable humidity levels and temps near to slightly
  below normal.

Discussion:

Tonight, lingering isold-sct showers and thunderstorms diminish
early with the trough passage and cyclonic flow continues with
strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front. The skies
will become mostly clear due to the strong subsidence due to the
frontal passage and the surface anticylone building in from
southeast Ontario and the Great Lakes Region. Lows fall back
into the 50s with some mid/upper 40s over the southern
Adirondacks.

Independence Day continues to look splendid and gorgeous with
low humidity levels and abundant sunshine with the surface high
building in over the region. A northwest breeze will persist at
5-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph. Max temps will run near to
a little below normal with upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 ft
in elevation and mid 60s to mid 70s above it. The fair and
tranquil wx continues 4th of July night for the fireworks and
festivities with light to calm winds and cool conditions.
Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall back into the 50s
with some 40s over the northern mtns.

The first half of the holiday weekend continues to look pleasant
with a slight uptick in humidity levels, as the sfc high ridges
in from the northern mid Atlantic Region and south of New
England. Mid and upper level heights rise over NY and New
England. Humidity levels look moderate with max temps near to
slightly above normal with highs ranging from the mid 70s over
the mtns to mid 80s in the lower elevations. Southerly winds
will pick up late in the day. Another tranquil night is
expected, but a tad more humid with lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Oppressive heat returns Sunday into Monday with heat indices
  potentially reaching the mid and upper 90s in the Hudson River
  and Mohawk Valleys.

Discussion:

The air mass becomes hotter and more humid to close the holiday
weekend. It should remain dry with just an increase of a few
clouds over the mountains north and west of Albany. H850/H500
temps rise +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal under the ridge. The
actual H850 temps rise to +17C to +20C. Dewpoints increase into
the 60s to around 70F in some of the valley areas. Heat indices
reach the mid 90s in portions of the Mohawk and Hudson River
Valleys (as far north as Lake George). Some heat flags may be
needed. The actual temps will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns.
Sunday night will be muggy with lows in the 60s to around 70F.
A few showers may get close to the southern Adirondacks ahead of
a frontal boundary.

More heat and humidity opens the week with possible heat
advisories for the mid Hudson Valley, Capital District, Saratoga
Glens Falls area, Mohawk Valley and possibly the CT River
Valley near southern VT with heat indices of 95-100F. A
prefrontal sfc trough ahead of the actual cold front will bring
some scattered showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will be +1 to +2
STDEVs above normal, so some locally heavy rainfall is
possible. The front sluggishly moves south and east across the
forecast area Mon night thru Tue based on the NBM, medium range
guidance and ensembles with more chances of showers and
thunderstorms. It does not look as hot on Tue with temps only
slightly above normal. The front settles south the region by
Tuesday evening with high pressure trying to build in mid week.
There was enough uncertainty with the frontal placement to keep
a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the
forecast area. Humidity levels should drop from the Capital
Region northward mid week with temps over eastern NY and western
New England being near normal for July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated patchy fog that developed at sunrise for KPSF and KGFL this
morning should continue to diminish this morning and conditions at
airfields continue to be mostly VFR through 13z.

VFR conditions are forecasted to continue today outside the chances
for thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Probabilities are
still less than 30 percent for impacts to TAF sites so continued to
mention in PROB30 groups IFR conditions with any thunderstorm that
could pass through TAF sites. One forecast change that latest
forecast models are showing is the thunderstorm activity could occur
as early as 15z. Continued consistency for end timing of 21-22z
for thunderstorms, but vicinity showers and thunderstorms could
continue through 23z with little to no impacts to TAF sites.
VFR conditions are in store for after 21-23z. Westerly winds are
still on track for this morning and afternoon becoming light
and variable for tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Webb