629
FXUS61 KALY 100205
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1005 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will gradually develop this evening into the overnight
with the greatest likelihood from around the Capital District
south and east, as low pressure passes to our south across the
mid Atlantic region. Mostly cloudy, cool and showery conditions
are expected Friday through the upcoming weekend, as a series of
upper level disturbances move across the area. Temperatures
will be below normal, with more clouds than sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lots of dry air over the region as seen in area 00Z soundings
and rain is slow to push into our area. Rain will overspread the
region through the night, but is just delayed a bit. Adjusted
timing of the rain. Once the rain arrives, temperatures will
fall to near wet bulb temperatures, which is near current
forecast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A wave of low pressure will track eastward along a west-east
oriented surface front across the mid Atlantic states this
evening, with an inverted surface trough extending north/west
from the low into central NY. This will provide enough forcing
for showers to develop from SW to NE this evening. Will mention
likely to categorical PoPs from around the Capital District
south/west. With surface ridging extending southward from Quebec
into northern/eastern New England, there will be a dry layer to
displace which could limit the showers from advancing farther
north/east than the Capital District where we will continue to
mention chance PoPs. While there is a cool air mass in place,
the clouds/showers will result in lows fairly close to normal
ranging from upper 30s in the coldest spots to upper 40s.

Showers continue into Friday, as another wave of low pressure
develops along the front in the mid Atlantic region, with the
inverted surface trough expected to shift slightly westward. So
this should result in the area of widespread showers gradually
moving west mostly into central NY. So there will likely be
drying for much of the area except for the western Mohawk Valley
and eastern Catskills where showers will linger the longest and
take most of the day for to shift west. Still, with an upper
level trough overhead there could be some light scattered
showers elsewhere along with mostly cloudy skies. Highs should
only range from the upper 40s to to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis moves through during the first half of
Fri night, then quickly shifts east off the coast overnight. So
there may be isolated to scattered showers around through around
midnight, with drying overnight due to some short wave ridging.
Lows should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s under partly/mostly
cloudy skies.

On Sat it looks like we will be between systems, with short
wave ridging in place ahead of a deepening upper low approaching
from the Great Lakes. As the leading short wave associated with
the trough moves in, chances for showers will gradually
increase from NW to SE mainly during the afternoon to early
evening hours. Most of the day looks dry for areas south/east of
Albany. Temperatures will remain cool, with 850 mb temperature
anomalies hovering near -1 to -2 STDEV. Highs look to mainly
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

As the upper trough moves in Sat night, scattered showers are
expected to develop again. The showers should be mainly light.
With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures will be similar to
recent nights ranging from upper 30s to upper 40s.

An associated surface wave will track from west/central PA Sat
night to near the Delmarva Sun morning. Another inverted surface
trough will extend north/west from the wave into central NY
during the day Sun. This provide additional chances for showers,
although the more widespread showers should be in closer
proximity to the trough in the western part of the area such as
the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. It will be
another cool day with mostly cloudy skies. Highs range from the
lower 50s to lower 60s.

The upper low shifts east off the coast Sun night, with some
short wave ridging moving in. This should result in clearing
skies with lows a bit cooler with upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures finally look to moderate to near normal levels on
Mon. A warm front approaching from the west may bring some
showers during the afternoon. The pattern is then expected to
turn more unsettled from Tue through Thu, although forecast
confidence decreases with regards to details. A
warmer/seasonable air mass should be in place by Tue, with a SW
flow aloft over region and an upper low tracking east across
central Quebec. At the surface, a cold front may bring showers
and some thunderstorms.

On Wed, the front pushes south, but another upper level trough
is expected to move east across the southern Appalachians, which
could spawn a surface cyclone near the old front. This system
may get close enough for some rainfall, but there are
differences in the guidance with regards to storm
track/evolution. Will continue to mention chance PoPs for now.

Forecast confidence remains low into Thursday, although the
latest guidance indicates it may end up being on the drier side
due to possible ridging. Temperatures expected to remain near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions this evening with ceilings well above 10000
feet. Rain will overspread the region through the night and some
MVFR visibilities in showers are expected after 06Z and
through about 12Z-15Z. Ceilings will lower to MVFR as well,
during the intervals of steadier showers. There may be little if
any rain at KGFL as the rain tracks south of that area but
including PROB30.

Coverage of showers will decrease between 12Z-15Z at KALB and
KPSF but including VCSH through Friday afternoon at those sites.
The coverage of showers looks to be the greatest at KPOU and
more steady intervals of showers will likely last all day Friday
at KPOU. Ceilings and visibilities should stay MVFR at KPOU all
day, while ceilings could lift to just into the VFR range just
above 3000 feet by 19Z-20Z at KGFL, KALB and KPSF.

Light north to northeast winds at 6 Kt or less tonight, but a
few gusts to 15 Kt at KPSF and KPOU. Then, northeast to
southeast winds at 6 Kt or less Friday morning and afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS