547
FXUS61 KBGM 141753
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
153 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward across the area
leading to additional showers and thunderstorms into this
evening. Storms will be slow moving and produce torrential
downpours. High pressure looks to briefly build into the region
on Tuesday before another frontal system approaches mid to late
week, with renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures
will remain above average, with very warm humid conditons
persisting through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
110 PM Update

The forecast remains on track in the near term period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are starting to pop up at this time
across NE PA and the NY southern tier. These showers and t`storms
should continue to develop, becoming numerous to widespread later
this afternoon and evening in these same areas. No changes were
made to the flood watch with this update, as the potential is
certainly still there. The showers and storms that are developing
are becoming anchored to terrain and are nearly stationary for
a time.

The bulk of the activity today is expected to be across NE
PA, the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. A flood watch remains
in effect covering these areas until midnight tonight.

Similarly to Sunday, SBCAPE is projected to be between 1500-3000
J/kg with low-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees C/km. Bulk
shear is still low but slightly higher than Sunday between 15
and 30 knots, so there is the potential for a couple of storms
to be on the stronger side with isolated damaging winds the main
concern and SPC has all of NE PA and an area from near Elmira
to Cooperstown southeast under a Marginal Risk for severe
storms. Any stronger storms would likely pulse up and down
pretty quickly due to the lower shear values. Flash flooding
will remain the greatest threat into the evening with PWATs of
1.7-1.9" as we continue to tap into moisture-rich air that has
origins from the Caribbean, Gulf and Atlantic. Forecast sounding
also feature tall, skinny CAPE sounding profiles across NE PA
and the southern Catskills. Thunderstorms are expected to be
slow-moving (or nearly stationary) and produce torrential
downpours that can train over the same locations multiple times
leading to flash flooding. Urban and low-lying areas will be
most susceptible. Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid
80s, with heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s at times.

Showers and storms will gradually come to an end this evening
and the frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag to the
south and east near or just pushing beyond the CWA borders by
early Tuesday. It will still be a muggy night with not much of
an air mass change behind the boundary with lows in the mid and
upper 60s. There is the potential for areas of fog to form.

Tuesday is expected to be a largely dry day under partly to
mostly sunny skies with ridging developing aloft and and high
pressure building in at the surface. With the weakening frontal
boundary still close by off to our south and east, a spotty
shower or thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out during the
afternoon around the Poconos and southern Catskills. Temperatures
will be trending back up with more sunshine; expect highs in
the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Afternoon dew points will be
between 65 to 70 for CNY, with upper 60s to low 70s across NE
PA...so still quite humid. Heat indices should peak between
90-95 for CNY and in the low to mid-90s for NE PA. This is just
below heat advisory criteria, but will need to be monitored closely.

High pressure will remain over the area Tuesday night keeping
conditions mainly dry under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Areas
of fog will again be possible. Staying muggy Tuesday night with
lows in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
120 PM Update

Wednesday is expected to start out dry, but a shortwave looks
to pass through the area in the afternoon, weakening the upper
ridge enough to trigger some scattered to numerous showers and
storms for the afternoon/evening hours. Some of these storms can
once again produce very heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 2" and
MUCAPE pushes 2500-3500 J/kg.

With plenty of instability ,and deep layer shear around 30 kts
projected Wednesday afternoon, some storms could produce locally
strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall. High temperatures
Wednesday range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Factoring in
dew points still in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are
expected to be in the mid 90s. As a result, heat headlines look
possible across portions of CNY, especially for valley and urban
areas. Lows Wednesday night range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Pieces of energy embedded in a relatively zonal 500mb flow will
keep scattered to numerous showers and storms around on Thursday,
especially during the afternoon. Again there will be the potential
for some locally heavy and gusty storms with plenty of instability
and PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8" on average. Temperatures, dew
points and heat indices remain very similar to Wednesday over
the region. A few showers or isolated t`stroms linger into
Thursday night as a stronger front approaches from the west.
Still muggy though with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
125 PM Update

The next cold front looks to cross the area Friday with additional
showers and storms. The best chance looks to be across the NY
southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and
location of the front. This front is trending stronger on the
latest model guidance, meaning that behind it, there will
actually be somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. Current
NBM guidance brings in lower humidity and dew points to CNY by
Friday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to around 80 expected.
The humidity lingers in NE PA Friday afternoon, with dew points
still in the upper 60s to low 70s....and high temps in the low
to mid 80s. Cooler, more comfortable and dry conditions Friday
night with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

High pressure and a drier trend seem to move in for the start
of the upcoming weekend before perhaps some precipitation tries
to return later Sunday into next Monday. Temperatures over the
weekend look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

150 PM Update

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be around
this afternoon and early evening, mainly from ELM, BGM south to
AVP. These will bring restrictions, especially to visibility as
some storms will be locally heavy.

BGM and AVP have the best chance of seeing this convection, but
it can`t be ruled out at ELM as well and TEMPO groups are in
the TAFs for the most likely timeframe, which is 18-22z. It
could linger longer at AVP, and the tempo will be extended if
necessary here.

Some locally gusty winds will be possible with incoming showers
and storms as well. Otherwise, winds will be rather light for
most of the period. As showers and storms wind down this
evening, areas of low clouds and fog are expected later tonight
into early Tuesday morning, especially around ITH, ELM and BGM
and AVP where higher low level moisture will be present. The fog
and stratus burns off by 12-13z and conditions return to VFR
heading into the rest of Tuesday morning and afternoon.


Outlook...

Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to
numerous showers and t`storms could bring occasional
restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK/MJM
LONG TERM...DK/MJM
AVIATION...MJM