349
FXUS61 KBGM 070009
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
809 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region tonight, bringing beautiful
weather conditions through Tuesday evening. An active weather
pattern returns Tuesday night through the weekend, with chances
for precipitation every day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
640 PM Update...

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. The
high level clouds are still progged to clear from NW to SE after
midnight and into the early predawn hours Tuesday. This will
allow for good radiational cooling and perhaps some patchy fog
along the immediate river valleys. Overnight lows were lowered a
touch in the normally colder locations...with Cortland, Norwich
and Morrisville area possibly reaching the upper 30s by
daybreak. Tuesday still looks like a phenomenal May day; with
ample sunshine all day and highs well into the 70s with low
humidity and light winds. A few valley locations could reach the
lower 80s with the full sunshine expected to boost temperatures
here...especially Chemung Valley, Binghamton metro area and
Wyoming valley region.

330 PM Update...

Low clouds have cleared out of the area, with high level cirrus
and some fair weather cumulus clouds popping up south of the
Finger Lakes. A few isolated showers will be possible over the
Wyoming Valley and Poconos this afternoon. Temperatures have
climbed into the mid 60s to low 70s, which is what was expected.

Tonight, a surface high moving into the region tonight will
bring clear skies, calm winds and dry conditions to the region.
Radiational cooling will develop, dropping temperatures into the
low to mid 40s across the region. Models are showing very dry
dewpoints sinking in from the north, with values in the mid to
upper 30s. None of the ensembles were showing temperatures
dropping below 40 so frost chances in the Finger Lakes growing
zones is very low. We will monitor this as the afternoon and
evening progresses. Some valley fog will be possible tonight
with radiational cooling and clear skies. The dry surface air
should limit this, but with leaves sprouting on the trees and
evapotranspiration occurring, fog cannot be ruled out.

Tuesday will be a wonderful spring day, with high pressure
overhead and temperatures in the 70s across the region. Sunny
skies will persist into the afternoon hours before clouds move
overhead from the SW ahead of an approaching warm front. NW
flow from the high shifts to SW during the evening hours as a
warm front approaches from the SW. Showers along this front will
have to battle dry air in place from the high, limiting
rainfall chances before midnight. After midnight, the center of
the low moves into the region and rain showers span the CWA.
There is some weak elevated instability modeled along and behind
the front so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, but
severe weather is not expected. Overnight temperatures will be
in the 50s , with some upper 40s over the Tug Hill and northern
Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will push through the area Wednesday morning. The
best lift and moisture should translate north and east of our
region. However, enough lift and moisture near the boundary look
to be present for a few showers and thunderstorms. The
environment looks highly sheared with some instability as well.
A fairly impressive wedge of mid-level dry air and steep low
level lapse rates could factor in with wind and hail potential.
So while coverage looks lackluster what develops could become
strong to perhaps severe. Wednesday should be the warmest day
well into the 70`s. After the cold frontal passage Wednesday
enough of a colder airmass should advect in for lows to fall to
around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very active pattern continues with another low pressure system
moving through with a broad trough in place. Widespread rain
looks to develop ahead of a warm front during the day Thursday
than taper off to showers as the main low pressure system moves
through Friday. Yet another system with some showers then
follows for the weekend. Cooler with highs in the 50`s and 60`s
and lows in the 40`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected this evening and overnight for much of
the region as high pressure begins to build into the region. With
clear skies and calm winds settling in, radiational cooling is going
to develop across much of NY. Important to note, clouds are a bit
slower to move out than previously forecasted, skies are now not
expected to clear out until 06Z. This could impact how much
temperatures drop tonight with a shorter window of radiational
cooling.

The big forecast challenge for tonight is the possibility of
radiation fog developing. While guidance is not showing temps
falling down to dewpoints, reliable aviation guidance still hints at
the possibility of fog developing at RME/ELM/ITH/BGM. This means
that there is a chance dewpoints do not fall as much as currently
forecast. If that occurs, fog formation and IFR chances will be much
higher than currently forecast. Given the chance for fog formation
at the airports mentioned above, TEMPO MVFR visby was included for
late tonight as confidence in IFR conditions is way too low.

If fog does not form, VFR conditions will be present through the TAF
period. If it does form, VFR conditions at the aforementioned
terminals will return mid morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely
with a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering
MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/JTC