975
FNUS73 KBIS 190850
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Lake Ilo 11...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
350 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of light showers at the burn
site today, but a wetting rain is not expected at this time. A
mostly cloudy sky can be expected through midday, with some
clearing possible in the afternoon. Winds this morning and early
afternoon will be out of the east-southeast around 8 to 13 mph,
followed by a gradual turning to the northeast around 10 to 15
mph later in the afternoon. Relative humidity should steadily
remain in the 40 to 50 percent range from planned ignition time
through the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy, with decreasing clouds late in
                    the afternoon. Slight chance of showers.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds around 8 to 13 mph,
                    shifting to the northeast around 10 to 15 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East-southeast around 17 to 22 mph shifting to
                    the northeast around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17000 knot-ft) in the morning increasing to
                    good (78400 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........85  81  75  72  63  56  51  48
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH     SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW      RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  10  20  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............53  56  59  61  64  65  65  66
RH..............54  49  45  42  41  41  43  42
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..9   10  12  12  13  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.14  17  18  19  19  19  19  19
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.1 3.6 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.8 5.1
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
Transp wind spd.18  22  22  21  16  15  14  14
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..17  41  69  78  64  66  69  61

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance
                    of thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 8 to 13 mph in the evening,
                    shifting to the northwest around 5 to 10 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 12 to 17 mph in the evening,
                    shifting to the northwest around 10 to 15 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........40     42     44     58     51     51
Weather cov.....       CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........       S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of pcpn (%).10     30     20     20     10     0
LAL.............1      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............65     62     53     49     47     44
RH..............45     50     71     83     83     89
20 ft wind......NE 12  NE 10  N 9    NW 7   NW 6   NW 6
20 ft wind gust.19     17     14     13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   1800   600    700    500    500
Transport wind..E 15   NE 13  N 13   N 13   NW 13  W 10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..54     20     6      7      6      4

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (117700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........34        25        35        58
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............43        47        58        63
RH..............93        83        54        41
20 FT wind......W 6G13    NW 8G13   NW 10G14  NW 10G14
Mix hgt (ft)....600       2100      5000      6900
Transport wind..W 13      NW 17     NW 18     W 18
Haines index....3         4         5         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..6         31        81        113

$$
Forecaster...HOLLAN
Requested by...Dustin Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414598.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dustin_mireles@fws.gov