153
FXUS64 KCRP 130756
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
256 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Key Messages:

 Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for most of South
Texas this afternoon

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave lifting across
the southeast US while an upper level low moves across OK/NE. At the
surface, a moist onshore flow continues across the region as a warm
front remains parked across our northern CWA border. As the upper
low lifts across the Plains, a shortwave moving through the
southwesterly flow aloft will tug a ribbon of H5 vorticity through
the southern part of the state. Meanwhile, instability will be on
the rise as diurnal heating kicks in. The main issue today will be
just how warm we get. The combination of a thick stratus deck and
smoke may keep our temps down a couple of degrees which would
decrease our convective potential slightly. However, model soundings
depict a highly unstable environment characterized by CAPEs near
5000 J/kg, DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, around 50 knots of bulk shear. It`s
worth noting that there is a healthy cap in place earlier in the
day, but recent trends hint at this cap decaying through the day. If
we break through the cap, we could see convection quickly become
strong to severe. There are some difference between some of the
recent CAM guidance. A few solutions keep most of the activity this
afternoon to our north and east. On the other hand, the HRRR and
NAM3/12km swing a line through our northern counties. All signs
point to supercells developing earlier in day near our northern
border where we would see more of a large hail risk. A MCS is likely
to take shape this afternoon as a weak boundary approaches from the
north. As this MCS moves south-southeast, will see more of a
damaging wind risk as well as an increased threat for an isolated
tornado or two. All activity will likely be offshore by 03Z or so.

Drier air will begin to move into the region overnight in the wake
of a weak boundary. There is a low to moderate chance of some patchy
fog across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as low level
moisture lingers. Weak upper level ridging will keep us dry on
Tuesday.

Taking a quick look at temps, we will see temps across the Brush
Country hit triple digits this afternoon. Further east, clouds
coverage will keep us in the upper 80s. Majority of the region will
be under a moderate risk of heat-related impacts today. Drier air
tomorrow will promote warmer temps but a reduced risk of heat
related impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Key Messages:
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
through the overnight hours.
- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
- Heat Advisory conditions possible on Thursday and Sunday for the
southern inland Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country.

Quiet weather is in store Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as
weak upper-level ridging and quasi zonal flow is in place. Low-level
moisture will begin to increase as onshore flow becomes dominant,
allowing for PWATs to reach between 1.5 - 2 inches by Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday night. By this time, mid-level shortwaves
will propagate into the region, acting as a lifting mechanism for
this increased moisture. This will result in a low chance (10-20%)
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening,
increasing to a low to medium chance (20-50%) through Thursday. The
overall coverage and intensity of the precipitation will depend on
the interaction between these disturbances and the available
moisture.

An upper-level trough is forecasted to move into the region on
Thursday, which will support the development of a surface low
pressure system over North Texas. This system will drag a cold front
into Central Texas, which is expected to pass through South Texas by
Friday and into the weekend. This frontal passage may trigger
additional convection, although the extent of its reach into South
Texas remains uncertain at this time.

As for the long-term temperature outlook, things will remain on the
warm side, with highs in the 90s along the coast and around 100
across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. The combination of
heat and humidity will lead to elevated heat index values Thursday
and Sunday, particularly across the southern inland Coastal Plains
and portions of the Brush Country, where values could rise to 110-
114 degrees.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Overnight the expectation is for the VSBYs to fall at the TAF
sites to MVFR, with only a <25% chance that they fall to IFR.
Otherwise, like the last few days CIGs will bottom out around
1000feet give or take a 200 feet, and primarily near VCT where the
chance of IFR conditions is 40-50%. ALI and CRP are 10-30%, and
LRD and COT are < 10%. Low confidence continues for the
convection with spotty convection possible, but with the cloud
cover/smoke, will we get warm enough to spark convection? Several
sites are look to have a 30% chance, so have gone with VCTS,
during the afternoon. The models are trying to clear things out
Monday evening, so there are more optimistic CIGs, with primarily
VFR CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue through much
of the day. A weak frontal boundary will move offshore this
evening, shifting the winds out of the northeast through Tuesday
morning. A east-southeasterly flow resumes Tuesday afternoon.
Increased moisture and an approaching upper disturbance will lead
to a 20-40% chance of showers and storms through this evening. An
isolated strong to severe storm moving offshore cannot be ruled
out. Drier conditions in store on Tuesday. Weak to moderate onshore
flow is expected to continue through much of the week. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible early
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  73  92  73 /  30  20   0   0
Victoria          89  68  93  68 /  50  30   0   0
Laredo           101  74 100  74 /  20   0   0   0
Alice             95  72  95  71 /  40  30   0   0
Rockport          88  74  89  75 /  40  30   0   0
Cotulla           95  72  98  72 /  40   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  73  93  71 /  30  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       90  77  89  77 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...JSL