709
FXUS64 KCRP 132049
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
349 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Key Messages:

 Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms through this
  early evening.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently tracking across
portions of the Victoria Crossroads into the northern Coastal
Bend. A few of these storms have become strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail reported. Conditions are conducive
for further severe weather development through the afternoon with
dewpoints in the 70s, steep lapse rates, MUCAPE values at or
around 4000-5000 J/kg and a weakening cap. The Severe Weather
Watch has been extended to now include the northern coastal
counties and adjacent bays/nearshore waters through 00Z. This
activity is forecast to continue on a southeastward progression
through the reminder of the afternoon with the highest convective
chances transitioning into the waters by early evening. A few
discrete cells have redeveloped out west near the Rio Grande
Plains along the location of a frontal boundary. Additional severe
weather concerns reside with these western storms as they enter a
more unstable environment. Very large hail is possible.

Conditions are forecast to improve tonight with drier air
filtering in behind the boundary. PWATs are progged to drop below
an inch by Tuesday while the shortwave trough exists the region
and surface high pressure briefly settles. Winds will shift to
the north and northeast tonight, and out of the east on Tuesday as
the high drifts eastward. Moisture will begin to increase again
Tuesday night with the low-level flow becoming more southeasterly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Key Messages:

 Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday

 Heat stress conditions possible Thursday, Sunday, and Monday in
  the Southern Coastal Plains and Brush Country

A shortwave will move across the Southwestern US Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will combine with well above normal PWAT values
(2.00-2.50 inches), which is flirting with the climatological max
for this time of year. The caveat for storm development will be the
uncertainty with the CIN values. Models are depicting moderate to
strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg), but aren`t in agreement with
how much of a cap will be over the area. Given the immense amount of
instability, it`s not out of the question to see some strong to
severe storms develop. SPC came to a similar conclusion on the
uncertainty with the CIN values which prevented them from issuing an
outlook. Models depict a surface trough developing during the day
Thursday in West/Central Texas. A chance for showers and
thunderstorms does exist nonetheless due to the presence of these
factors. This will likely need to be monitored as the situation
evolves.

Thursday, depending on the uncertainties with convection, could see
heat stress conditions across the Southern Coastal Plains and Brush
Country. With the abundance of moisture in the area it will be
pretty humid allowing for heat indices to increase to around 110. A
similar story will follow for Sunday and Monday. The need for a Heat
Advisory may come into play during these days and will also be
closely monitored as we transition through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle, with the
exception of TEMPO groups for MVFR levels this afternoon due to
convective potential. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
through 21Z including LRD/COT/VCT terminals. An extension farther
south into the the remaining sites is possible later this afternoon
as a line of thunderstorms (bowing segment) develops. Frequent
light to ground lightning, gusty winds, and large hail will be
possible through early this evening. A weak frontal boundary will
slide through by the evening, with drier conditions developing on
its wake. Another brief period for MVFR conditions is in the
forecast across the eastern terminals Tuesday morning in response
to potential fog formation. Winds will be variable this afternoon,
then shift northeast and east later this afternoon into the
overnight period. A weak easterly flow will prevail Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the coastal waters this
evening in response to a passing disturbance. A few storms could
become strong to severe at times, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. An associated weak frontal
boundary will move offshore this evening, shifting the winds out
of the northeast through Tuesday morning. A weak to moderate east-
southeasterly flow resumes Tuesday afternoon into the overnight
period. Drier conditions are in store on Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible early
Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Weak to moderate
onshore flow is expected to continue through much of the week and
the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  91  72  90 /  30   0   0   0
Victoria          65  91  67  91 /  30   0   0   0
Laredo            72 100  73  98 /  10   0   0  10
Alice             69  95  70  93 /  20   0   0   0
Rockport          72  87  75  87 /  40   0   0   0
Cotulla           69  97  70  98 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  94  71  91 /  30   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  88  77  87 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM/88