Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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134 FXUS63 KGLD 141740 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1140 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon through sunset. Primary hazards include wind gusts to 60 mph which may also produce some blowing dust followed by hail up to 1" in diameter. - Continued chances (20%-50%) for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday night. - Overall coverage of showers/thunderstorms remains low Thursday then Saturday night, Sunday night and Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Today-tonight...a subtle shortwave within/ahead of a broader upper level trough is forecast to emerge off the Colorado front range and into the forecast area this afternoon, supporting 20%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms. Primary hazards this afternoon/early evening will be wind gusts to 60 mph and perhaps some hail up to 1" in diameter. Local dust storm research findings suggest a few cells could produce some blowing dust given 0.5-1km wind speeds of at least 43kts using the hourly GFS model. As this feature continues slowly east overnight there will be 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with it, mainly north of a line from Yuma to Hill City. Yuma county remains in a slight chance for precipitation due to a bit of an increase in mid level moisture and lift ahead of the main upper trough axis. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts are generally in agreement with better moisture for showers and thunderstorms across the far western/southwestern parts of the forecast area during the day as the upper trough axis approaches the area. For now, have limited pops up to 30% for counties surrounding our neighboring offices. Overnight, NAM/ECMWF 850-500mb moisture and qpf remain across the far southwestern parts of the area while the GFS remains the boldest in producing higher pops (30%-50%) across the area, highest south of I-70. High temperatures wont be as warm with readings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Thursday-Thursday night...we`ll continue to have 20%-30% chances for rainfall during the day as the upper trough axis takes its time moving through the area with NAM/GFS showing sufficient moisture from 850-500mb for some light qpf. Overnight, a lack of moisture behind the upper trough suggests a dry forecast across the area. NBM paints some 20% pops across Yuma county for some reason. Will keep it in the forecast to match up with neighbors and wouldnt be surprised if its removed in later forecasts. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Will start the period warm and dry under shortwave ridging on Friday. Shortwave trough moves out of the northern Rockies on Saturday and into the northern plains, potentially sending a cold front down the plains and into the area. However, models in poor agreement on whether or not that will happen. There is some weak instability for any potential front to work with but overall shear is also rather weak. So, at worst might see a few isolated storms along any potential frontal boundary Saturday afternoon/evening. For Sunday and Monday, will start a prolonged period of southwest flow ahead of a deep trough which will be slow to move out of the southwest/Four Corners region. Occasional shortwave energy will be ejected from the trough axis and into the central plains providing synoptic scale lift for convection. Deep layer shear will be around 50 kts both days. Instability is forecast to be rather limited on Sunday which may negate any severe weather chances, but potentially better on Monday with a dry line and front at the surface and well-defined upper wave. However, confidence at seven days out in those kind of details remains low. Temperatures through the long term period change very little, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the forecast period. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals beginning later this afternoon and continuing into the evening and overnight hours. There is a possibility of two waves of storms, the first occurring this afternoon/evening, and the second occurring around daybreak. Any storms will result in wind shifts due to outflow and the possibility of some blowing dust. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Wekesser