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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251758
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1158 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather remains forecast for today
  (Thursday) with very large hail (1" - 3"+) and tornadoes
  (including the possibility of long-lived or significant
  tornadoes) as the main threats. The severe weather is forecast
  to impact the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
  There is a 20% chance that a cap or a different environmental
  factor will prevent severe weather.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday for Kit Carson,
  Cheyenne [CO], Wallace, and Greeley counties during the
  afternoon and early evening hours.

- Blowing dust chances have lowered, but could still see hazy
  skies and some degraded air quality this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Severe weather is expected across the Tri-State area this afternoon
into the overnight hours. The dryline looks to be setting up near I-
70 and Highway 27. Locations to the southwest of the line are drying
out as southerly winds will continue gusting above 25 MPH. Later
this afternoon, RH values behind the dryline will drop into the
lower teens. This will create critical fire weather conditions for
locations behind the dryline. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect
for the locations where prolonged critical fire weather conditions
are expected.

Blowing dust will also be possible (~15% chance) in locations along
and south of a line from Idalia, CO to Oakley, KS. Along the Kansas
Colorado border will see the best conditions for blowing dust.
Visibility reductions down to around 3 miles are possible in plumes
of blowing dust. Brown-out conditions cannot be ruled out near
source regions.

The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the
evening. SPC has kept an Enhanced risk in the southeastern 1/3 CWA
for Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant
hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this
event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail
hazards. There is still a 10% chance that the cap will prevent any
storms from firing, but confidence is lowing due to clearing skies.
If the cap does break, isolated discrete to clusters of severe
storms will form and all hazards will be possible becoming a mess of
storms later on. The main hazards will be tornadoes and hail. The
entire Tri-State area will have potential to see severe weather, but
chances increase in the Enhanced risk area.

Storms are expected to start firing around 19-21Z with the highlight
of the severe storms being 22Z-03Z. The prime location for the
severe storms will be in the Enhance risk area and the storms will
move to the northeast. After 03Z, the severe weather threat will
lower over the following 9 hours. During this time, we will begin to
get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are
expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded
within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system
with most of that falling north of highway 36.

As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong
northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are
already expected due to the pressure rises.

Temperatures overnight tonight will cool to the upper 40s. High
temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and the southern
CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, several rounds of
precipitation look to impact the region in the extended period.

For the upcoming weekend, a cutoff slow-moving 500mb low works off
the central Rockies on Saturday. With an amplified ridge over the
eastern portion of the country, this system is expected to make a
N/NE trek from western Kansas then lift into southwest Nebraska for
late Saturday night into Sunday.

At the surface, low pressure moves into southwest Kansas ahead of
the upper low, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward
towards eastern KS/NE. This low does kick a bit faster eastward than
the upper support. This will allow for an easterly upslope flow to
shift northerly as the low passes.

The result of this surface low/front moving through the area,
combined with upper level support, will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms to occur. Based on the surface low track from both the
GFS/ECMWF, highest pops/QPF chances favor locales along/north of I-
70 as 80-90% chance for precip will occur, tapering to a 40-60%
chance south of the Interstate.

QPF numbers are widely ranging over this event, from 0.20-0.30" east
and south, to 0.70-1.30" in northern/western locales. These higher
numbers are aided by the upslope easterly early on. The bulk of the
QPF will occur Sat/Sat night. With PW values approaching 0.80-1.00"
especially for N/NE zones, hydro concerns could crop up. This will
be on top of what areas have already received rain from Thu-Thu
night.

Looking for the surface gradient Saturday night into Sunday to
increase/tighten with gust potential into the 30-40 mph range before
tapering late Sunday.

Going into next week, zonal flow aloft expected through midweek with
some amplification late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a
couple weak shortwaves riding through the zonal flow that will help
to trigger a few rw/trw especially in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Surface
low/front across KS during this time will focus moisture/instability
mainly east of the CWA, but eastern zones could see 15-20% chance
for convection. ECMWF/GFS do differ on this as strong ridging aloft
does occur late for the ECMWF, so will stay close to the latest NBM
for precip potential. At most, above normal temperatures are
expected as 850 mb temps will range in +14c to +19c range but will
be highly dependent on cloud cover especially towards the midweek
timeframe.

For temps, going into the upcoming weekend, with a frontal boundary
over southern portions of the area Saturday a wide range in daytime
highs is expected with upper 50s to mid 60s west and upper 60s to
the upper 70s east. Warmest areas will be in the extreme E/SE
portions of the CWA. On Sunday, cooler with mid 50s to lower 60s
expected.

Going into next week, another warmup begins with highs on Monday
reaching into the 70s, upper 70s to mid 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday, peaking Thursday with 80s area-wide.

Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the mid 30s west into
the mid 40s east. Sunday night, mid to upper 30s expected. Next
week, overnight lows will range mainly in the 40s Monday and Tuesday
nights, trending warmer for Wednesday and Thursday nights with a
range from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong to significantly severe storms are expected to impact the
region tonight and could to reduce categories at both KGLD and
KMCK. Stratus will continue to impact both sites over the next
few hours, at least. Clearing is occurring at KGLD and
approaching KMCK. Around 21Z is when storms are expected to
start firing and last into the night, however lingering showers
and storms will last throughout the night and into tomorrow
morning. A low pressure system will be moving through and cause
winds to become northwesterly overnight. Strong winds are
expected tomorrow from the northwest and gusty winds will
continue today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially
impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an 84-
hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming weekend.
These chances will come in two rounds, one Thursday/Thursday night
and the other this weekend. Precipitation amounts will be highly
dependent on track and movement and overall coverage.

Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time have
around a half inch or less south and east of a line from Hill City
to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area. North and west
of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is possible. The
highest totals are currently focused west of a line from Burlington
Colorado to McCook Nebraska.

Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to handle
around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be monitored for
potential for any training of storms in localized areas, especially
for areas that may have seen a lot of rain today/tonight and may see
more storms over the weekend.

There are currently no Flood Watches in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for KSZ027-041.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...