851
FXUS63 KIWX 070435
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1235 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
  Damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes are
  possible in any severe storms that develop. Heavy rain and
  minor flooding is possible.

- Severe weather is possible again late Wednesday afternoon into
  the overnight, especially south of US 30. Damaging winds,
  hail, and localized flooding are the primary threats.
  Confidence is low at this time.

- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the
  weekend. Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Powerhouse upper wave over the cntrl Rockies will close off across
the wrn Dakotas before spinning out through the Great Lakes Thu-Fri.
Downstream warm sector will broaden north into the OH valley
tomorrow and support decaying plains leftovers Tue morning. Cloud
debris and potential clearing in wake of morning activity will
dictate possible late day svr risk but destabilization likely
hindered here and which subdues overall svr risk.

Ewd pinwheeling upper low and attendant cold front will progress
into wrn areas Wed evening and ewd overnight. Strong/sharp return
flow ahead of this along with proximity of sfc warm frontal zone
general south of US24 may pose a resultant higher risk but potential
outflow spoiler remnant from dy1 further south may squelch that risk.
Nevertheless high chance to low likely pops retained in more
favorable periods.

Thereafter cool and showery as wrn flank of elongating upper low
holds back through the srn lakes, reinforced by secondary
disturbances digging down across the lakes Sat and again late
Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A warm front will lift into northern IN late this morning and
afternoon with a couple rounds of convection expected. The first
will be associated with a decaying line of convection that will
track through from west to east late this morning into the early
afternoon. Moisture advection in advance should allow cigs to lower
into MVFR or low VFR with an hour or two of showers and embedded
thunder expected. Greater concern is for a round of more vigorous
surface based convection mid-late afternoon as instability
increases just in time for a MCV to track through with scattered
strong-severe storms possible. Opted to hold with a VCTS
mention for now given lingering uncertainties. VFR/dry otherwise
into tonight behind this feature.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Steinwedel