933
FXUS63 KIWX 140823
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
423 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered storms at times will persist through
  the weekend and into early next week.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but widespread flooding and
  severe storms are not expected.

- Temperatures will rise above normal with highs around 80
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A wet pattern is ahead as a series of upper level systems drift
across the CONUS and reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
The core of initial system was over northeast MO early this
morning with energy extending well south to near the Red River
over southern Oklahoma. This system will spread additional
showers and scattered storms across the area mainly this
afternoon and tonight. The environment ahead of this system will
consist of very low CAPE values with tall/thin CAPEs. Bulk shear
will remain low and should not be enough to support severe
storms. Saturation up to 300 mb is expected with high
precipitable water values (1.2 to 1.4") which will favor heavy
downpours which could lead to brief local flooding of poor
drainage areas and possible an isolated urban area. A second in
the series of upper level system will bring an additional round
of rain showers and scattered storms Thursday night through
Friday with lingering showers possible Saturday. The environment
ahead of this system will be similar to the one today and
favorable for heavy downpours. More energy arrive early next
week a support more showers and storms. Highs Sunday should be
close to 80 with dew points probably topping 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-level troughing continues to allow for scattered showers
however seems to be a very pronounced line over the western CWA
border where to the east of the line stays relatively
precipitation free and to the west showers continue to re-
develop. This has made the forecast a bit more complicated
because the lower levels are fairly moist and would not take
much for the showers to spread eastward. At this time have opted
to keep KSBN dry until after 12z and KFWA dry until after 17z
Tue. After these times MVFR conditions with light rain slightly
lowering vsbys/cigs. Have kept thunder out of the forecast for
now as confidence is not high. But an isolated thunderstorm or
two would not be a complete surprise.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen