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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281715
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will diminish after daybreak
  over southwest Michigan.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected
  during the Wednesday to Friday timeframe.

- Warm with highs in the 70s through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Vigorous warm advection in progress on nose of LLJ through the wrn
OH valley leading to a disorganized area of showers and embedded
thunder from cntrl IL newd through nrn IN. Expect this will continue
to lift north into srn MI by daybreak and diminish. Thereafter
turning warm and windy although cloud cover may be slow to shake
this aftn and curb even warmer temps than are currently forecast.

Potent shortwave over wrn NE will lift into ern SD tonight as cold
frontal zone washes out ewd across the lakes on Mon. Little more
than a band of decaying showers expected along this late tonight far
west and across the remainder of the cwa Mon. Next nrn stream wave
tracking through the nrn Rockies Mon-Tue turns left into Canada and
has trended north which now looks to favor a mainly dry period Tue-
early Thu before rain chances reappear ahead of a more substantial
sys ejecting out of the cntrl Rockies Fri. Will make targeted cuts
to overtly messy blended pops to account.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Dry conditions should hold across northern Indiana through much
of the night with some renewed chances of rain across northwest
Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan by early Monday morning.

The primary aviation weather concern this afternoon is the
continued strong winds. Diurnal mixing will continue to promote
some southwest gusts to around 30 knots through the remainder
of the afternoon, with these gusts tapering sharply toward 23Z.
A modest gradient will persist overnight that will keep south
winds up around 10 knots through the night. Large scale support
for showers and thunderstorms through this evening will remain
displaced well to the west across the Lower/Mid MS Rvr valley.
As the large scale trough shifts east overnight and an upper jet
streak lifts through downstream portion of this trough, would
expect better forcing to shift far enough east to bring rain
shower chances into NW Indiana late tonight. Confidence as far
east as KSBN is somewhat lower and will hold with VCSH mention
through Monday morning until better timing can be attained with
what should be a weakening line of showers and embedded storms.
Some brief MVFR cigs are possible NW Indiana after daybreak
Monday, but primarily VFR conditions should hold. A narrow
window of very marginal LLWS criteria is possible later tonight
ahead of the cold front, but this looks quite marginal in nature
and confidence remains low in meeting this criteria.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili