000
FXUS63 KIWX 270623
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
222 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds this
  afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm and unsettled with periodic rain and
  storms through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Decaying arc of convection advancing newd out of wrn/cntrl IN will
be out of ern areas around daybreak. Otherwise broad warm advection
continues downstream of sfc cyclone and potent parent wave aloft
over nw IA with modest theta-e riding poking into the srn lakes. LLJ
weakens through morning and this aftn before some modest
strengthening occurs tonight. Adequate low level theta-e ridge
remains in place and with substantial diurnal destabilization will
lead to redevelopment of showers/storms this aftn within sfc
confluence zone broadly pinned through nrn IN/nw OH. This is
expected to consolidate in time this evening as it shifts into nw
IN/srn MI and where it is likely to persist into early Sun morning
before lifting out. Some of these storms this aftn could be strong
to severe with marginal hail/gusty winds.

Sun expected to be dry and quite warm as heights build through the
wrn OH valley in response to next plains bowling ball wrecking havoc
out west. Expect widespread 80+ degree temps. Plains low will
release on a similar trajectory as the current sys, into sw ON by
late Mon as cold front washes out ewd. Still some chance for showers
late Sun night/but weakening low level flow/forcing portents little
more. Brief/shallow sfc ridge follows Tue before trailing cold front
in association with yet another potent nrn plains shortwave stalls
out locally early Wed.

Thereafter late period muddles considerably owing to stalled frontal
zone and continued parade of shortwave disturbances out of the wrn
US. Suffice it to say unsettled wx the expectation through DY7
(Fri). Otherwise area will stay on warm side of the flow aloft with
unseasonably warm temps persisting through the week before cooling
down next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After one round of rain yesterday evening, another round is on its
way in as seen on local radar. Showers (and potentially a few
embedded thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder) alongside increased
low level jet winds surge in the 06Z-12Z timeframe. This will bring
increased southerly winds with gusts near 25 to 35 kts at the
surface through the day, but especially before 18Z.
Have kept the previous mentions of LLWS. Mainly MVFR ceilings are
expected through the TAF forecast period. There may be a brief few
hours of VFR ceilings this late this morning/early afternoon, before
ceilings drop again this evening as vicinity showers become possible
once again.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Johnson