691
FXUS63 KLBF 152030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA
330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and storms rest of this afternoon to evening.

-Quiet and dry Thursday and much of Friday

-Active weather returns with periods of showers and storms this
 weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Lingering scattered rain showers continue this afternoon, as seen by
radar returns over portions of northern and eastern Nebraska.
Further surface analysis shows a cold front over eastern Nebraska
tied to a weak area of low pressure currently centered in eastern
South Dakota. Will see increasing chances for showers and storms as
a weak wave with the departing system passes across Nebraska this
afternoon into the early evening. Model soundings depict MLCAPE
values around 1500J/kg with effective shear values around 30 knots
and somewhat steep lapse rates paired with dry low levels. Overall
not expecting severe weather with this activity, though gusty winds
and periods of heavier showers with any storms are possible, though
some small hail cannot be ruled out. Little in the way of additional
rainfall is expected, with models generally agreeing on values less
than 0.25-0.50 inches, highest further east. Temperatures this
afternoon are expected to top out in the 60s to low 70s, along with
slightly breezy northwest winds. Clearing skies are expected into
the evening with winds turning light and temperatures dropping into
the 40s over the region.

Looking at a period of dry and pleasant weather Thursday as a small
ridge axis pushes across the region in between systems. Mostly sunny
skies Thursday with light westerly flow will allow for warmer
temperatures as highs are expected through the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

As the aforementioned ridge departs Friday, low level flow will
increase and turn more southwesterly, with warm air advection
surging into the state ahead of a large area of deepening
surface low pressure system tracking eastward across the far
northwestern CONUS Friday. This will result in temperatures
reaching into the mid to upper 80s into the afternoon. As the
negatively tilted upper level trough associated with the
previously mentioned surface low pivots across the Dakotas into
eastern Wyoming late Friday and into Saturday, a weak wave
moving into the state looks to bring the chance for showers and
storms. With much better forcing for convection further north
however, the potential for much activity within the CWA is
looking low end (<20% chance per most recent model guidance).
Overall not expecting severe weather with any activity that may
occur, but will continue to keep an eye on this potential over
the next few days.

Cold air advection pushes into the state following the departing
system, with high pressure following which will allow for dry and
quiet conditions for the remainder of Saturday. Highs will be cooler
as a result with values in the 70s. Active weather is expected to
increase by Sunday through early next week as a large upper level
low pressure system circulating over southern Canada eventually
phases with another trough lifting out of the Desert Southwest by
Tuesday. This will result in several waves of showers and storms to
push through the Central Plains, which per model guidance looks to
at least come with a better chance for at least some periods
stronger storms and more appreciable rainfall. Too far out to get
specific on the details however, so will be watching closely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Low clouds continue bring MVFR ceilings this afternoon at KVTN,
and are expected through about mid to late afternoon before
lifting. Expecting scattered showers and storms to develop over
the next few hours and push east across the terminals, which may
come with brief periods of lowered ceilings and visibility
restrictions with any heavy rainfall that may occur. Decreasing
clouds from west to east are expected after 00z, with VFR
conditions expected, along with decreasing winds into Thursday
out of the west-northwest.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bury
LONG TERM...Bury
AVIATION...Bury