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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281124
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
424 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1227 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures
this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the
coast cooler however.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1227 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High pressure will remain offshore as a weak cold front slowly
dissipates across the Bay Area today. The pressure gradient will
remain relatively robust, thus supporting breezy northerly winds
today particularly over the local waters and along the coast. Patches
of stratus will again develop within marine influenced areas before
mixing out during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High
temperatures will range from around 60 on the beaches to the mid 70s
for the warmest portions of interior Monterey County and for areas
bordering the Sacramento Valley. Lows tonight will dip into the 40s

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Longwave pattern shows more zonal flow setting up through at least
midweek. Zonal flow aloft will keep more of the same: subtle
warming (inland areas), dry conditions, patchy night and morning
stratus, and breezy onshore flow. Speaking of winds, probabilistic
guidance really highlights northerly winds over the coastal waters
Monday and Tuesday. Current forecast has trended upward with
regards to winds as well. Still not strong enough for a wind
advisory for the coast, but gusts of 40mph plus will possible.
Probably not the best beach days for Monday/Tuesday. Elsewhere
away from the coast there is a high likelihood (greater than 70%)
of seeing gusts over 25 mph.

The second half of the work week will feature additional warming
with far interior location eclipsing 80 degrees. Still breezy out
of the NW so temperatures will hold mostly steady along the coast
and bays. The warm up and breezy NW flow finally ease next weekend
as the zonal flow becomes more amplified with approaching upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 424 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Isolated patches of stratus exist from the Golden Gate southward to
Monterey County, with the evolution of stratus somewhat
unpredictable. Model output has pulled back on stratus coverage
at SJC this morning, with a TEMPO for MVFR stratus now. Clearing
of stratus should take place after sunrise. Breezy and gusty
westerly winds will set up this afternoon, with gusts up to around
20-30 knots at the terminals. Winds diminish late this evening,
with patchy stratus coverage developing Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO... Periods of MVFR ceilings through sunrise. Breezy
west-northwest winds will build through the day with gusts up to 35
knots, and around a 10-20% probability of gusts over 35 knots this
afternoon and evening. Winds diminish late this evening. Not
expecting stratus development in the terminal area this evening
into Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Patchy stratus occasionally impacting the
terminals, continuing through the morning. breezy onshore winds
developing this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 20 knots.
Patchy stratus returns to the region tonight and will migrate over
MRY through the nighttime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong northwesterly winds to will persist through the weekend
posing hazardous conditions for small crafts. Periods of gale
force gusts will occur through the weekend into the work-week,
especially over the coastal waters. Winds continue to increase
during the first half of the week lasting through Thursday.
Moderate period northwesterly swell will continue to move through
the waters through Thursday causing wave heights up to 12 feet.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Monday
     for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon
     Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...SPM

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