Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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758 FXUS66 KMTR 121144 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 444 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 A relatively quiet pattern will develop featuring overnight and morning coastal clouds with clear skies elsewhere. Inland temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with cool onshore breezes keeping coastal temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 The marine layer has deepened appreciably with an inversion height around 800 to 1200 feet per area profilers. Low stratus is widespread early this morning with greater inland penetration as compared to yesterday. For those hoping to view the Aurora your best bet is to either head inland or into the higher terrain above the marine inversion. Given the deeper marine layer we`re seeing much less in the way of fog as compared to yesterday as cloud bases are generally just a tad above the surface. The large-scale picture features weak troughing aloft over the West Coast with downstream ridging over the Desert Southwest region. This pattern will support the continued deepening of the marine layer with a repeat performance of low stratus tonight. For today, expect clouds to gradually clear towards the coast with inland warming. High temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast, to the 70s for the marine influenced valleys, to the 80s for the warmest inland locations. A few hot spots across southern Monterey County may even eclipse the 90 degree mark. Temperatures tonight will be mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with readings a bit warmer in the higher terrain inland. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 Temperatures will cool slightly with onshore flow and weak troughing aloft persisting. An upper ridge does build/strengthen over the northeast Pacific by mid week, but it appears our area will remain along its periphery with no strong signal for a warming trend. In general high temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast to the lower-mid 80s for the warmest inland areas. This will only produce a minor HeatRisk for the warmest locations. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards the coast each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 Currently seeing a mix of VFR-LIFR at the terminals as a marine layer of about 1,000 feet is being allowed to protrude inland. Aside from MRY, VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by this afternoon. LIFR-IFR conditions are slated to return to most terminals tonight with lower confidence at APC and SJC. LVK is the only terminal that will be VFR through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow, although IFR stratus is finally beginning to close in on the terminal. Winds will remain breezy out of the west through the TAF period. Conditions will improve to VFR by 18Z with IFR conditions slated to make a return again tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with breezy westerly flow at both terminals. Winds will remain breezy out of the west/northwest through the TAF period. While there may be brief, sporadic periods of VFR at MRY this afternoon as the low clouds retreat towards the Pacific Ocean, the terminal will likely be impacted by a low ceiling and/or reduced visibility through the duration of the TAF period. SNS has a better chance of truly clearing this afternoon with IFR conditions looking to make a comeback again tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 426 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to allow for fair weather and moderate northwesterly breezes to prevail today. As surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean begins to build and move east tonight, winds will strengthen from a moderate northwesterly breeze to a fresh northwesterly breeze. As a result, significant wave heights will build to 12-15 feet by Tuesday before gradually abating through the rest of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 719 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Long period southwest swell will lead to slightly elevated chances for sneaker wave and rip current development this weekend. Conditions are expected to stay below Beach Hazards Statement criteria as swell height will only be between 1-2 feet. However, in light of anomalously warm temperatures and increased likelihood of people traveling to the coast, visitors to the beach should remember to take safety precautions to prevent being caught by an unexpected large wave and to never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....SPM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea