532
FXUS65 KREV 290935
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
235 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Seasonable temperatures and breezy winds will prevail today and
Tuesday, except areas near the Oregon border will see cooler
conditions. This cooler air mass will spread southward across the
region Wednesday. Temperatures will then quickly rebound to above
average by Friday and Saturday. Increased breezes and a slight
chance of showers may also return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Near average temperatures to start the week, then a cool down
  Wednesday before rebounding to above average by Friday. However,
  areas near the OR border will remain cool through Wednesday.

* A storm track generally across the Pacific NW will bring periods
  of increased breezes early this week, and again next weekend.

* Dry conditions prevail this week, then low-end potential for
  showers returns for the first weekend of May.

A flat ridge over the southwest US and southern Great Basin will
keep a dry pattern in place for much of the upcoming week. Fast
moving shortwaves across the Pacific NW will push notably cooler
air across areas north of a Susanville-Gerlach line today and
Tuesday, where highs are only expected to reach the 50s.
Elsewhere, we`ll hang on to more seasonable temperatures in the
mid 60-lower 70s for lower elevations, and 55-65 degrees for
Sierra communities. Increased breezes will make it feel somewhat
like a mix of spring and fall, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range
(with potential gusts around 40 mph for wind prone areas near and
north of I-80) today, then slightly less wind on Tuesday. For
those heading outdoors the next 2 days, it may be comfortable for
shorts and t-shirts through mid-afternoon, but quickly transition
to jacket and jeans weather near and after sunset.

By Wednesday, a shallow back door cold front will bring a shift
to north winds, and spread the cooler air that was bottled up in
far northeast CA-northwest NV southward across the remainder of
the region. Highs across all of eastern CA-western NV will range
from the 50s-lower 60s, followed by a chilly Wednesday night with
lows well below freezing in Sierra valleys, and freezing temps
possibly extending into much of western NV/northeast CA away from
the main urban areas. For those who got spring gardens started
during the mid-April warmup, it would be a good idea to
protect/cover any cold-sensitive outdoor plants Wednesday night.

Temperatures will quickly rebound by Thursday into the start of
the weekend with mid to upper 70s returning for Western NV
valleys and mid 60s for Sierra valleys by Friday-Saturday. Dry
conditions will continue through at least Friday before some lower
chances for showers (15-30%) arrive across portions of northeast
CA/northwest NV and spread into the Sierra and parts of west
central NV late Saturday and into Sunday. While a majority of the
ensemble guidance keeps precip amounts light with weak troughing
along the west coast, a small number (about 10-20%) of the
simulations show a more aggressive scenario with a deeper closed
low near the west coast. In this case, a more notable push of
moisture would spread into the Sierra and northeast CA, along with
gusty winds and temps dropping to near/below average regionwide
by late weekend and the early part of next week (May 5-7). MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* Areas of FZFG are again likely at KTRK between 10-16Z this
  morning, but this fog potential will decrease on subsequent
  nights as drier air spreads across eastern CA/western NV.
  Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the next few days.

* Increasing west to northwest breezes with gusts of 25-30 kt are
  projected at the far western NV terminals today and Tuesday
  mainly between 20Z-03Z, with lighter gusts near 20 kt for the
  Sierra/Tahoe area terminals. Minor mountain wave turbulence can
  be expected, with potential for brief LLWS especially in the
  late morning/early PM before the increased winds mix down to the
  valleys.

* A dry cold front will then shift winds to the N-NE by Tuesday
  night-Wednesday, although gusts will be lighter (mainly 15-20
  kt).

MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$