847
FXUS64 KSHV 150138
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
838 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Cu field has just about dissipated completely across N LA and SC
AR this late evening hour as winds will continue to decouple and
this will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions
overnight. Forecast min temps already have a good handle on this
with overnight lows ranging in the middle 50s across our northern
zones to the lower 60s near the I-20 Corridor and points south.
Still have wide temp/dewpoint spreads attm but they will meet
eventually and thus, cannot rule out some patchy fog given wet
soils and light winds overnight. Fog potential will not be as
dense or widespread as what we witnessed across the western half
of the Four State Region this morning.

All other grids are within operational normals and thus no
forecast update is necessary this evening.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A welcome reprieve from rain will continue through this short-term
period as an upper-level trough slowly ejects eastward from the
Mid-MS Valley. Some wrap-around moisture continues to maintain a
fairly robust cu field across our northern and eastern zones, but
expect more rapid clearing through the evening hours after sunset.
Likewise, look for wind speeds to drop off rapidly as well as high
pressure builds firmly into the region. This will provide for more
conducive conditions favoring patchy fog development once again,
albeit not as dense or widespread as what was observed earlier
this morning. Low temperatures will generally range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warmer conditions
on Wednesday with winds eventually trending back S/SW throughout
the day. In response, high temperatures will surge into the mid
to upper 80s and even some lower 90s in a few isolated locations
as mostly sunny skies prevail. As light southerly flow persists on
Wednesday night, overnight temperatures will run several degrees
warmer compared to tonight with cloud cover also returning across
our western half. As a result, overnight lows will range through
the 60s across the entire region.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Unfortunately, the current stretch of dry weather will come to a
screeching halt by late Thursday and especially Thursday evening
through much of Friday. Medium-range model guidance still poses a
few different scenarios with the GFS suggesting the first round of
showers and thunderstorms associated with a lead shortwave by late
Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning, followed by another
potential round of heavy rainfall late Friday into Friday night,
primarily along and south of I-20 with the primary trough axis.

Given this potential of heavy rainfall coming in two waves, total
rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated 5+ inches still look
quite possible for areas mainly south of I-20 through Friday night.
For locations along and north of I-20, rain amounts should drop off
quite sharply with around a half inch in northernmost zones up to
near 1.5-2 inches possible closer to the I-20 corridor. Expect a
Flood Watch to likely follow in the near future based on the rain
amounts expected in our southern zones, but the exact placement of
the watch will largely depend on the model consistency with these
amounts mentioned above.

As the trough axis shifts east of the region Saturday afternoon,
any lingering light rain should rapidly come to an end with dry
weather expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend
and early next week. Upper-level ridging will expand across much
of the southern CONUS and help to propel high temperatures into
the upper 80s and lower 90s from Sunday through the remainder of
the extended period early next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Afternoon cu field will dissipate over the next couple hours with
SKC prevailing through the overnight hours. Cannot rule out some
patchy fog (mostly MVFR variety) at most area terminals given the
wet antecedent conditions, clear skies and light winds. Will
watch the LFK terminal for the possibility of dense fog developing
after midnight but for now, have advertised 1SM from 09-13z in
the morning. Otherwise, any VSBY restrictions should be short-
lived after sunrise with VFR conditions returning. Look for
increasing cirrus through the day Wednesday from the south and
west. Winds will decouple this evening, becoming mostly light and
variable with a southerly component returning to our E TX
terminals beyond 15z Wed. Elsewhere look for mostly variable winds
on Wed with speeds generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  91  69  86 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  61  89  64  87 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  54  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  59  89  66  87 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  58  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  62  89  67  81 /   0   0   0  60
GGG  61  89  67  83 /   0   0   0  50
LFK  61  90  66  83 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...13