000
FXUS63 KUNR 130858
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
258 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO DRY AIR
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW AND MID LEVEL WWA THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RESULTING INCREASED MIXING WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA OVER
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE AREA AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. FAST MOVING
RIDGE PASSES OVER ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPS. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH A MODEST
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77