Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 281127

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
527 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SK,
with warm front extending southeast through the central and
eastern Dakotas. A cold front extends southwest from the low
across MT into southern ID. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis
over the high plains, with low pressure remaining off the west
coast. Lots of high clouds streaming across the area this morning.
West to southwest winds over the area helping to keep temps very
mild early this morning, 50s and 60s right now.

Warm weather will continue across the area today, before cold front
to the northwest sags south across the area later today and tonight.
Highs will be in the 70s across much of the area, with some low to
mid 80s to the south and east of the Black Hills, where some near
record highs are possible. Quick moving shortwave will eject from
the upper low to the west and cross the region tonight into
Saturday. Short range models in pretty good agreement on timing
and track of the system, with the best chances for showers from
northeast WY to the Black Hills to northwest SD later tonight into
Saturday Morning. Some locations will see decent rainfall in these
areas, especially from far northeast WY into northwest SD, with
amounts tapering off quickly as you go south into southern SD. A
little snow could mix in across the highest elevations of the
Black Hills late tonight/early Saturday. Lows will mostly be in
the 40s, with some 30s across the Black Hills.

Showers will exit the area from west to east on Saturday, with most
of the activity likely out of the area by mid afternoon. However,
skies will remain rather cloudy through the day. Cooler air in place
with the clouds will keep highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
There will be some clearing across western portions of the cwa
Saturday night, with skies remaining mostly cloudy elsewhere,
especially to the east of the Black Hills. Temps will drop into the
mid 30s to lower 40s early Sunday as high pressure passes north
and east of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Mean eastern pac troughing will support active/progressive sw
flow over the region through the period, with split flow
tendencies. The strongest mid level trough and associated sfc
cyclone will progress through the region sun-mon, bringing another
round of very mild and possible record highs Sunday along with
chances for showers Monday. Monday/s precip looks to be
fgen/banded and over a confined area as opposed to more widespread
and at this time looks to favor the northern third of the fa.
Temperatures will remain fairly warm and mild for late oct/early
nov with highs in the 50s- 70s and lows in the 30s-40s. Staunch
waa will ensue sat night, supporting a very warm day Sunday under
sw ll flow. A cold front will support cooler temps Monday with
windy conds esp depending on the strength of the low pressure
system and linkage of flow. Beyond mid next week, mean western
conus ridging is continued to be favored in long range models,
which would support mild conds into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 521 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. A cold front
will bring increasing chances for rain tonight across much of the
area, esp the northern half. Ll upslope flow combined with
increased ll moisture will support the development of mvfr-ifr
cigs across the nw half tonight, with the the lowest cigs over ne
WY and invof the Black Hills where local lifr conds will be
possible early Sat morning.




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