Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 310824

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
224 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Monday Night)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Current surface map shows weak low across Montana, with trof
extending into Wyoming. Narrow band of thunderstorms located from
the Black Hills into south central South Dakota. This thunderstorm
activity will continue to move southeast and diminish around
daybreak. Surface trof moves into western Dakotas this afternoon.
Moisture pooling east of the trof will result in MLCAPE of
2000-3000J/KG. With weak shortwave moving through upper ridge,
scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Best
chance of thunderstorms will be from Black Hills into northwest
South Dakota. Sufficient shear for a few supercells. Activity
continues early tonight on nose of low level jet, with
thunderstorm pushing east of the forecast area late tonight.

Surface trof/cold front slides through western South Dakota Monday
morning and is located over south central South Dakota Monday
afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will be limited to vicinity of
front and over the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Zonal flow aloft early in the week will give way to
southwesterly flow Wednesday as an upper level low moves across the
Pacific NW and eventually into the southern Canadian Prairie
Provinces. Weak disturbances in the flow will bring mostly diurnally
driven shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Wednesday, with
the best chances across the Black Hills each afternoon. Above
average temperatures can be expected across much of the area Tuesday
and Wednesday, before a cold front moves through Wednesday night and
brings more seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week. Drier
westerly flow late in the week should bring mostly dry conditions,
but the models are starting to show another disturbance pushing
through the region for the weekend. This may bring a chance of
thunderstorms for some areas on Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 222 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Thunderstorms will continue to exit the area early
this morning, leaving behind an area of MVFR ceilings. VFR
conditions will quickly return by late morning; however, scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds
and MVFR cigs/vsby can be expected with storms.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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