Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 070547 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SH/TS. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
AT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT GUP/FMN. LOW CLOUDS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMONPLACE AT LVS/TCC/ROW AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ABQ/AEG/SAF DUE TO A NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MVFR CIGS COULD PLAGUE THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. SH/TS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. NEAR AWW WIND SPEEDS AT ABQ THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1010 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND WESTERN AREAS NEVER GOT GOING
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SOUTHEAST AREAS IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. DO NOT EXPECT
STORM INTENSITY TO REACH THAT OF EARLIER CONVECTION NOW THAT WE
HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO PERCOLATE OUT THERE AS WELL. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS FOR EARLY JULY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY AREAS NOT RISING OUT OF
THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY HOWEVER SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORMS ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EAST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2
AND 1.4 ARE INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING ALOFT FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HAMMERING THE EAST
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FFA
LOOKS VERY GOOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...HOWEVER
FARTHER WEST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ACTIVITY NOTED ON LATEST 18Z NAM/HRRR PRODUCTS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW SINCE STORMS MAY STILL FIRE UP LATER AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE ALONG THE DIVIDE.

MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
VERY COOL AIR FOR EARLY JULY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT THE RECYCLE PROCESS
AGAIN WITH A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM. A BIG
UPTICK IS SHOWN THURSDAY WITH A MONSOON BURST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS. A HUGE SLUG OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ELEVATED THREAT WINDOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT TREND WESTWARD TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM MOST ANY
STORM DUE TO THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. A GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TRACKS WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEATURED TUESDAY CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE
THE EAST SHOULD BE QUIETER. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE CONSIDERABLE DEW POINT DECREASE FORECASTED BY THE NAM. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BY THURSDAY GFS INDICATES AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL THETA E VALUES AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND KEEPS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY DRYING ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY GLITCH.
THE PLUME...AND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T CHANGE LOCATIONS SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT DOWN THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE EAST MIGHT BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE WETTING
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROJECTED STEERING FLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE...WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AND CLOSEST TO AVERAGE DAYS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE THE BEST OVERALL. AREA OF POOR
VENT RATES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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