Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 262343 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD NM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE DOWN THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MEAGER AT THIS TIME. DRIER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP
UPWARD...WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST PLACES
NOW...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO RACE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS PICKING
UP WINDS SOMEWHAT. IT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD...BUT WILL
COOL TEMPS UP TO 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SANGRES IN
THE AFTN...BUT NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THE FRONT WOULD PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SUNDAY EVENING...WITH AT BEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE FOR MONDAY. GFS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
SKIRTING THE MEXICO BORDER FROM CALI TO THE BOOTHEEL ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN BETTER DYNAMICS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT...THOUGH WETTING PRECIP
WOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND THE CANADIAN
SHOW A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WITH EVEN LESS QPF. MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPEAR TO FAVOR THE WEAKER EC/CANADIAN SO
HAVE KEPT POPS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

WEST TO WNW FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY. GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
PERTURATIONS IN THE FLOW WHICH SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT HAVE SOME MINIMAL
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WILL
BE THE RULES MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHORT LIVED
WIND SHIFTS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 TO 15 DEG
ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR MASS...MIN RH VALUES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NEARLY ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FAIR TO POOR OVER THE MAJORITY OF LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS...WITH SOME WORSENING FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE RGV WHERE FORECAST MAX RH IS ONLY NEAR 30 PERCENT.
RECOVERIES IMPROVE OVERALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY THE RGV...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE GFS IS THE MOST EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS NEARLY DAMPED OUT THE UPPER LOW FEATURE IT/S
BEEN INDICATING FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS. THEREAFTER...IT DOES APPEAR
SOME AFTERNOON WINDINESS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE START OF APRIL AS
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IF SO...RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY CRATER IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH ONLY FAIR TO POOR
RECOVERIES.

VENT RATES FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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