Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 280943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST
...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TODAY. DRY AIR
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO COME BY OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE STATE...INCLUDING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE EASTER PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR GET THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z NAM12 AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING IT
WILL GET AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE MIDDLE RGV BUT GFS KEEPS THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SANDIAS AND
MANZANOS. BOTH MODELS FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EWD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS IN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT CREATE
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ABOVE MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SWD THROUGH THE ERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE RGV AND POINTS WEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING WEDENSDAY OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG
WITH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NAM AND GFS FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN A LARGE SWATH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.25IN MOST AREAS. LATEST MODELS TRENDING
FARTHER EAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH AND AND A RESULT
ARE STRONGER WITH STORM STEERING FLOW. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FLASH
FLOODING FROM NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A CONCERN
THAN TRAINING. WILL HOLD OF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW TO SEE
IF FUTURE MODELS RUNS SETTLE ON STORM SPEED.

UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY. FLOW AT 700MB (~10K FT
MSL)...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO BE SLY AND A ROBUST ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND RESULTING UPTICK IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN THERE. THE FRONT WILL THEN
PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOAKING RAINS LIKELY OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO RAIN-COOLING AND ADDED CLOUD COVER.

A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE AFFECTS OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT DIMINISH AND THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS UP OVER THE STATE.
A GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
EC/SE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIT AND MISS SH/TS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SOME HIGHER BASED
SH CELLS TO THE SW OF ABQ BUT DONT BELIEVE THEY WILL IMPACT THE
AIRPORT AREA SO LEFT OUT VCSH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT. THE NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS WILL FIRE UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ERRATIC SO CANT
RULE OUT SOME CELL IMPACT TO ABQ/SAF. WILL USE VCSH AT THIS TIME.
LVS/TCC ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH MINIMAL POSSIBILITY AT
GUP/FMN. ROW IS A TOUGH ONE AND EXPECT SOME CELLS TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP NEARBY LATE TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY
USHER IN MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE TUESDAY EVE AND CANT RULE OUT SOME
INITIAL MVFR CIGS. LVS WOULD BE THE LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  58  89  58 /   5   5  20  20
DULCE...........................  85  52  80  52 /   5  10  50  40
CUBA............................  83  54  74  52 /  20  20  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  55  85  55 /   5   5  40  40
EL MORRO........................  84  53  78  52 /   5  10  70  60
GRANTS..........................  86  56  80  55 /   5  10  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  84  57  78  55 /  20  20  60  60
GLENWOOD........................  87  58  84  56 /  30  30  60  50
CHAMA...........................  78  50  71  50 /  10  10  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  60  74  57 /  40  20  70  60
PECOS...........................  81  57  71  54 /  50  50  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  54  70  53 /  50  20  80  50
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  59  47 /  70  20  80  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  50  60  50 /  70  40  80  60
TAOS............................  82  53  72  53 /  10  10  50  40
MORA............................  79  54  66  53 /  70  50  70  70
ESPANOLA........................  89  59  79  55 /  10  10  40  40
SANTA FE........................  83  61  75  57 /  40  30  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  60  78  57 /  20  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  64  83  60 /  30  30  50  70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  67  85  63 /  10  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  63  87  60 /  10  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  67  86  62 /  10  10  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  62  86  61 /  10  10  40  50
RIO RANCHO......................  93  66  85  62 /  10  20  40  60
SOCORRO.........................  94  65  91  65 /  10  20  50  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  58  74  56 /  50  30  50  70
TIJERAS.........................  86  56  76  55 /  40  30  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  87  52  77  53 /  30  20  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  57  73  56 /  50  30  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  85  59  81  58 /  40  30  60  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  88  63  87  62 /  40  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  78  59  76  57 /  60  40  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  81  56  64  56 /  40  60  80  50
RATON...........................  86  57  68  55 /  50  30  70  40
SPRINGER........................  87  58  69  56 /  40  30  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  55  70  54 /  50  40  70  70
CLAYTON.........................  90  61  75  60 /  30  60  40  50
ROY.............................  87  59  71  59 /  50  50  60  50
CONCHAS.........................  95  67  81  65 /  30  50  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  94  66  84  64 /  30  50  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  66  86  65 /  30  60  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  94  66  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
PORTALES........................  95  68  89  66 /  10  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  96  68  88  66 /  20  40  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  98  70  94  68 /  10  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  92  63  88  62 /  20  20  30  20
ELK.............................  84  60  80  59 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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