920
FXUS63 KABR 142054
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
tonight through midweek. There will be a 20-30 percent chance for
this activity tonight into early Tuesday before increasing to 50-90
percent chance on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- A slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather will be
possible tonight south and west of Pierre and along and south of a
line from Kennebec to Watertown on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather is possible
tonight for most of central South Dakota east to the James Valley
and for most of the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night with the
exception of north central South Dakota. The primary threats will be
damaging winds and large hail.

- Heavy rain is possible along and east of the James River into west
central Minnesota Tuesday into early Wednesday.

- There will be a noticeable cool-down midweek with highs
potentially 15 to 20 degrees below normal Wednesday and 10 to 15
degrees below normal Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Hot temperatures and relatively lower humidity values are more
commonplace across the Missouri Valley this afternoon versus farther
east, where it`s a bit cooler and more humid. A few higher clouds
are drifting into central SD and there`s some fair weather CU across
parts of east central SD this afternoon. Latest vsbl satl and radar
trends early this afternoon show convection firing across eastern WY
and the Black Hills region. It will be this activity that will
affect parts of this CWA later this evening into the overnight.

Sfc low pressure will continue to organize and shift out of eastern
WY into western SD tonight as a shortwave impulse tracks through the
region in westerly mid level flow. This will aid in continued
convective development with this convection anticipated to reach our
western zones by early to mid evening tonight. Instability and deep
layer shear along with steep low and mid level lapse rates will be
sufficient to maintain convection tonight across central SD. Also, a
low level jet does kick in across our west and this should also
favor storm maintenance going into the overnight. Damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph and large hail to quarter size will be the primary
threats. Some of this convection is expected to stumble east into
the James Valley and other parts of our northeast late tonight into
early Tuesday with perhaps more of a heavy rain threat developing.
There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather around
the Pierre area and points south and west with a marginal risk
(level 1 out of 5) for most of central and northeast SD tonight.

Another round of active weather is expected later in the day Tuesday
into Tuesday night as that sfc low tracks east-southeast toward the
SD/NE border area and a cold front slowly sags south into our
northern zones during the morning and midday hours. A ribbon of
favorable instability and deep layer shear will be pressure across
the southern half of our CWA by the afternoon. Steep low and mid
level lapse rates are also expected along and south of the cold
front prompting SPC to highlight our far southern zones, from
Kennebec to Watertown and points south and east with a slight risk
(level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats but can`t rule out a tornado or two across
across far south central SD and and points and east out of our
forecast area. Mid level impulses will still traverse the area
through midweek as the sfc low and cold front shifts farther away
from our area. This will continue to maintain the active pattern
with more garden variety showers and storms expected in a more
stable atmosphere. Parallel flow in the low to mid levels in
conjunction with that west to east splayed out sfc front Tuesday and
Wednesday may lead to training showers and storms with the potential
to produce locally heavy rainfall, especially across the James
Valley and points east where a slight risk for excessive rainfall
has been posted.

Drier conditions will move in by late Wednesday through early
Friday. Much cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s still look
likely during this time frame. A gradual warm up is anticipated late
in the week into the upcoming weekend where more seasonal readings
can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to be the prevailing conditions for
all terminals through this period. However, the development of
showers and thunderstorms tonight will spread into central SD and
affect KPIR/KMBG this evening and by late evening into the early
overnight as far east as KABR. Lower cigs/vsbys down to MVFR will
be possible at KPIR this evening as a result of thunderstorm
chances. KMBG could see a period of LLWS (low level wind shear) as
a low level jet develops overnight. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible at KABR/KMBG terminals toward the end of this TAF cycle
due to chances for thunderstorms and the passage of a cold front
slowly sagging south into northern South Dakota.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond