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000
FXUS63 KABR 132040
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
340 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE MONTANA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN THE WIND
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE NE CWA WHERE LLM MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT.

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH SOME LLM. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A NARROW BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC
POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
PLACEMENT IS AROUND A HALF AN INCH. PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END ON
SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE 12Z RUNS WITH REGARDS TO
SFC PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. REMOVED ALLBLEND CHANCES
OF PRECIP EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN CWA AS LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD KEEPING ANY SNOW NORTH AND EAST.

A MORE WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
ON MONDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS...THE RESULT IS THE SAME. RAIN AND SNOW
COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS
STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...MORE RESIDENCE TIME OVERNIGHT WILL EQUAL MORE SNOW.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN