Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280121 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
721 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Issued at 718 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Made a few adjustments to pops this evening as a band of virga has
set up from north of Pierre to just southwest of Aberdeen. The
only site reporting precip is Phillip, SD with a 5 degree dewpoint
spread. The Td spread at Pierre is still 18 degrees so saturation
has yet to occur. Started to fill in pops a bit more by 4z.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A warm front is currently located over northeastern SD and into west
central MN where temps have warmed into the upper 30s and mid 40s.
While decent WAA at 850 MB should push the front northward some more
yet this afternoon, weak CAA should begin to push into western SD
later this evening. With contrasting airmasses, a good SW to NE
frontogenetic band should develop over the central CWA tonight. This
front, along with an upper level jet streak and surface low crossing
the central plains will set the stage for banded pcpn. The pcpn
should begin as a mixture of rain and snow before changing over to
all snow for most locations. A few models are showings a tongue of
warmer air aloft in the SE portion of the CWA where freezing rain is
possible. Models soundings suggest any freezing rain will be brief
with only minor accumulations expected. Will hold off on headlines
as the confidence in freezing rain is low. Snowfall amounts of 1-3
inches are possible as well. Pcpn should progress into MN by 18Z
Tuesday with dry conditions expected the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The main system to affect the area during the period will come
through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. This clipper-like
low will track right across the eastern part of the ABR CWA. Progs
continue to indicate a swath of light snow with this storm, but
nothing too significant. Snow amounts should be less than an inch.

The rest of the period looks pretty much dry until perhaps late in
the weekend, or early next week as a stronger system makes its way
into the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be around or
slightly below normal at the beginning of the period, however
they`ll trend above normal for the rest of the forecast as a ridge
aloft builds north and then east over the area by week`s end.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A cold fropa will bring some light snow and mvfr/ifr cigs to the
region tonight. While snow will be short-lived with only light
accumulations from KPIR to KATY and KABR, lower cigs will linger
through Tuesday afternoon.




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