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000
FXUS63 KABR 071812 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1212 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL THE WIND CHILL
PRODUCTS. WHILE A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 25 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LAST AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO AT BEST. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED SKY COVER AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO
KABR AND KATY. ALSO...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING
ALONG I-90...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE SW CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS OUT OF MONTANA AND
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS
BELOW TO TWENTIES BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS
JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 5 MPH...SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
ENDED UP WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE THIRTY BELOW TO FORTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AS WELL AS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE THE WINDCHILL HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS EXPECTED. STILL SEEING THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
PIERRE AREA DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAKE OAHE...REGARDLESS OF THE
WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A
FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH KICKS OUT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BUT WILL QUICKLY GET PUSHED SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS ARE ALREADY BEING
SEEING THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SETTING UP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THIS AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
CWA...ONLY CARRIED FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT WORKS INTO
OUR CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
PRESENT. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS
CWA...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCH TO AND INCH AND HALF OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN
INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AND ARE ACTUALLY A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGH
DEPENDENCY ON CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN CLEAR...THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS IN THE
LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACKING NEAR THE AREA...ONE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS
TO BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE
IT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. WILL SEE A HINT OF A WARM UP DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND
20S ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KPIR AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS
LIGHT SNOW AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY STREAM OFF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. VSBY MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN