Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 041832
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1032 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL OFF OF THE 12Z ANALYSIS.
MINIMAL SPREAD WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM12...12Z GFS AND 00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF IN BOTH THE SHORT RANGE AND MID TERM. EXPECTED
AMOUNTS OF SPREAD WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE LONG
RANGE.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE A 576 DAM RIDGE AT 500 HPA CURRENTLY
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND 588 DAM RIDGE AT 500 HPA BUILDING
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE MERGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA MOVES
EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. A
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE
LOCATED ALONG A ANVIK TO NUNIVAK ISLAND LINE SUNDAY MORNING.

850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS CLIMB FROM AROUND 8.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS FOUND ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING TO AROUND 12 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 16 TO
18 DEGREES CELSIUS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PUT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR INTO THE MID 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR ALL OF
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER YK DELTA WHERE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST COST MONDAY AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YK DELTA AGAIN. THE
REST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THE DRY
CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL GIVE WAY
TO A COOLER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF OF THE BERING SEA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A FAIRBANKS TO KOTZEBUE LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT
WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE CAPPING INVERSION FROM THE 500 HPA
RIDGE ERODES.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A GALENA
TO DELTA JUNCTION LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH ALONG AND NEAR THIS TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S TODAY AND SUNDAY AND DROP INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR STRONG WINDS FOR
MONDAY FOR ZONES 219 AND 221 AND SUNDAY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION FOR STRONG WINDS. EXPECT COOLING TREND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH HIGHER RH VALUES BUT INCREASED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO ISSUES

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 15



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