Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 282206
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LIFT TO BOOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIORS.

SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN
ARCTIC THROUGH FRI. A 987 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIORS.

ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-15
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE LOW STRATIFORM
CLOUD REGIME AND AREAS OF FLURRIES AND FOG.

INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR WITH SURFACE CAPE TO 150-250 J/KG
AND SURFACE-500 MB LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -2.


HYDRO...AN ICE JAM IS LOCATED 10 MILES DOWNRIVER FROM EAGLE AND IS
CAUSING WATER AND ICE TO BACK UP INTO THE COMMUNITY. THE
YUKON RIVER IS BANKFULL AND FLOWING OVERBANK IN SOME LOCATIONS.
RESIDENTS HAVE REPORTED RISING WATER LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
THE COMMUNITY. THE ROAD BETWEEN EAGLE AND EAGLE VILLAGE IS
INUNDATED AND THERE IS WATER IN YARDS OF HOMES ALONG THE LOWER
RIVER BANKS. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH OR CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE UNTIL THE ICE JAM RELEASES.

FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO YESTERDAYS SHOWERS.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TODAY. IN
ALASKA RANGE PASSES...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

APR 16



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