Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 291215
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...00Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BASED ON THE NAM WITH A NUDGE
FROM THE SREF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST AS
RIDGING PUSHES BACK ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH A 559 DAM
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 DAM LOW NEAR THE SEA
OF OKHOTSK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC TO BANKS ISLAND
BY SATURDAY NOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING
STRAIT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE FROM
THE CURRENT 12 TO 22 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW. EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE
ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

SURFACE...1005MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST BUT
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. 1043MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS THIS MORNING WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
A 985MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC THIS
EVENING WITH A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE BERING
STRAIT TONIGHT AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA AND PERSISTING FOR AROUND 12 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER
THEN NORTHWEST COAST TO 30 TO 50 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205
STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE ANYTHING
FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST SO WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS
COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES...THOUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO TELL WITH
ALL THE WIND. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE
15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA
FROM KIVALINA NORTH IT WILL BE REALLY QUIET. EXPECT SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THAT AREA OF ZONE 207. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH HERE SOME FLURRIES EAST
OF THE TOK CUTOFF IN ZONE 226...OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE
SEE SOME NEAR 40 BELOW CELSIUS AIR AT 850 HPA MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS SPELL LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHORT WITH WARMER AIR AND
WEAK CHINOOK FLOW BEYOND THAT.

SATELLITE...A LITTLE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR
MICROPHYSICS AT 29/0904Z IS CONFIRMED BY THE BARROW OBSERVATION
IS MOVING EAST. A FEW MORE PATCHES EARLIER JUST NORTH OF PRUDHOE
BAY AND BARTER ISLAND LOOK TO BE MOVING EAST AS WELL. THERE IS
ALSO SOME STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AT 29/0725Z
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 15



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