Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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729
FXAK69 PAFG 202323
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft: A broad upper level low persists over much of the state
with a center of 495 dam over the Seward Peninsula. This low will
continue to track south along the West Coast of the state and is
expected to be centered near Emmonak overnight. This pattern is
producing active weather on the West Coast and allowing cold
temperatures to move into the Interior, bringing in the start of
winter time temperatures. Our forecast area will generally remain
under low pressure through the weekend, though a shift to more
zonal flow occurs early next week.

Surface: The upper low at 500mb is reflected as a 985mb low on the
surface with a center currently over Nome. As with the upper low,
this low will continue to move south overnight. This low will
fill as it moves south out of our forecast area later this
weekend, quieting the weather for much of the state.

Models: We continued with continuity from the previous forecast
and kept with a NAM solution for precip. The GFS went a little
heavy on snowfall for the West Coast so the former model seemed a
better solution. Model solutions diverge greatly next week so
uncertainty is high in the long term.

West Coast: The West Coast is where most attention has been
focused today. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for
forecast zone 213 along the Bering Strait and north coast of St.
Lawrence Island into Saturday night. Northerly flow will continue
to bring snow, wind and blowing snow to these locations, with the
possibility of some freezing spray accumulating on structures and
powerlines along the coast of St. Lawrence Island. Winds are not
as strong and temperatures not as cold as when this has happened
in previous events, so we are not expecting as severe of impacts
at this time. High surf is also a concern here. The winter weather
advisory for forecast zone 207 will be allowed to expire this
afternoon as conditions are improving there.

Interior: The coldest temperatures we have seen so far this year
will persist for the next couple of days with some fog expected
for the Yukon Flats and Tanana River Valley tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will warm a little over the Eastern Interior this
weekend as a bit of ridging pushes in from the Yukon. Otherwise,
weather will be pretty quiet for this region of the state.

North Slope: The low pressure system moving west across the coast
of the slope will exit the area tonight. Winds will diminish
around Barrow as a result, though some snow showers and fog will
linger overnight.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AVIATION...

PAFA...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for much of the
TAF period. Fog is expected to form on the airfield tonight,
though not as dense as it was this morning.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

$$

BJB Oct 17



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