Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 241419
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
519 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017
Models...Good agreement into the midrange with exception of the
timing of the shortwaves moving through the flow. Initialization
was good with the major features, but models did not pick up on
the development of a closed 1008 mb low over the northeast arctic
coast. Run to run continuity continues has been good in the
handling of the low now near Cold Bay. Run to run temperature
outputs continue to struggle with the rapid warm up.
Aloft...At 500 hpa...472 dam low remains high in the Siberian
arctic and the long wave trough lies west of the dateline south
over the central Bering Sea. A series of shortwaves will move up
the western flank of the ridging over the eastern interior and
southeast panhandle. A 496 dam low will develop near the dateline
in the central Bering Sea this evening and slowly drift over St
Matthew Island by Friday morning. Ridging over the eastern
interior will push northwest Wednesday with the axis lying from
Point Hope to Burwash Landing YT. The ridge will drift north to
lie over the arctic coast Thursday night. A strong shortwave will
move north over the Gulf of Alaska coast Thursday and into the
interior early Friday morning. South flow will persist over much
of the mainland through the weekend. At 850 hpa...The south flow
will persist bringing weak warm air advection to the area. A few
areas in the interior will see the temperature rise to around
zero celsius Thursday. Weak cold air advection into the area as
flow comes from the west starting Friday.
Surface...Weak ridging will persist across the central arctic
over the offshore waters. Broad area of cyclonic flow over the
state and the eastern half of the Bering Sea around a 974 mb low
near Cold Bay this morning. Cyclonic flow will persist as several
lows are absorbed into the center which remains in the vicinity of
Cold Bay through the week. A 1003 mb low developed near Barter
Island and expect it to dissipate by afternoon with weak troughing
persisting over the arctic coast and plain. Leeside trough in the
upper Tanana Valley this morning with gap winds in the central
and eastern Alaska Range that will diminish this evening as the
trough weakens. Tanana Valley jet winds around Delta Junction will
diminish as well late this evening.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some clouds moving through the
area as the cyclonic flow pushes north over the area today. Winds
will swing around out of the northeast as the ridging moves
offshore. Winds generally 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures warming as the
south flow aloft send warm air north. Some patchy stratus around
Barrow that is moving west will bring some lower clouds to areas
for a couple hours as it moves through.
West Coast and Western Interior...Patchy areas of snow across the
area with up to 4 inches possible in the Nulato Hills and the
southern Seward Peninsula. Low to the south will continue to send
warm air north so warmer temperatures again today. Strong gusty
winds on the Bering Strait coast and St Lawrence Island will
continue into Thursday.
Central and Eastern Interior...Over summits along the Dalton and
Elliott Highways winds into the evening gusting to 40 mph so will
keep Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow into the evening.
Continued warming as chinook flow continues into the interior.
Clouds moving through the area so periods of cloudy and partly
cloudy conditions through the day. Some snow developing along the
south slopes of the Brooks Range but less than 2 inches expected.
Gusty south winds in the Alaska Range passes with gusts to around
45 mph. Around Delta Junction Tanana Valley jet continues into
the evening with east winds gusting to around 40 mph. The
remainder of the area will have northeast to east winds at 5 to 15
Coastal Hazards Days 3 and 4...None.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.
Gale Warning for PKZ210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
SDB JAN 17