Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 281440
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
640 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016
The current suite of high surf advisories and high wind
warnings for the west coast areas remains in effect.
Minor changes have been to made to the expected ending
times of some of the advisories and warnings. Valid times
of the high surf advisories have been extended to cover
a second period of sea levels elevated to as much as
5 to 6 feet above normal tides.
Current model runs are now in good agreement in the short term
forecast period out through Saturday. A strong occluded front
currently extends from a 965 mb low 150 nm west of St Matthew
Island to 50 nm west of St Paul Island and southward across
the Aleutians into the Pacific Ocean. The 965 mb low will curve
northward and westward to become a weakening 962 mb center 200
nm west southwest of Cape Navarin by 6 am Saturday. A new 973 mb
low will develop on the front 50 to 100 nm south of St Paul Island
later this morning. By 6 am Saturday the new low will deepen to
around 960 mb centered 200 nm west of Point Hope, with the front
sweeping northward and eastward across the west coast. Development
of the new low will create a very strong pressure gradient across
the west coast as it moves westward, resulting in winds gusting to
as high as 60 to 75 mph in many areas. The strong winds combined a
storm surge of as much as 5 to 6 feet will create high surf
conditions along the southern Seward Peninsula coast and the
Chukchi Sea coast north of Cape Krusenstern. Strong wave action
will generate high surf on the south shore of St Lawrence Island,
although no significant storm surge is expected there.
Windy conditions will develop along the western Arctic coast
tonight and continue through Saturday.
Rain over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait coast
will spread to the remainder of the west coast and parts
of the western interior tonight, likely becoming snow
or mixed rain and snow over the western interior and
northern west coast areas. Snow will be likely tonight
over the extreme western Brooks Range and the Arctic
Coast west of Point Lay. There will be a chance of snow
over many parts of the central interior Saturday and
Southerly gap winds are expected to develop in Alaska
Range passes today and continue through tonight before slowly
decreasing Saturday. Wind gusts are expected to remain below
Current models indicate another significant low center moving
into outer Bristol Bay Sunday night then recurving northwest
to near Cape Navarin by Tuesday. This system could bring in
another period of southeast gales to the Yukon Delta and St
Lawrence Island as the low passes by these areas.
Coastal Hazard Potential...See main discussion.
High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.
High Wind Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
Storm Warning for PKZ210.
RF OCT 16