Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 262249 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE SAT AND
SUN.

THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO FEEDING
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH CONDITIONS MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL COOL BRIEFLY WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK STRONGLY
WEST OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-10 ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN COOLING A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST COAST FRI. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SAT AND SUN.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
100NM NE OF BARROW BY 3AM FRI...AND TO 100 NM NE OF BARTER ISLAND
BY 3PM FRI THEN CONTINUE EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT
CONNECTS THESE LOWS WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND
BERING STRAIT FRI THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXCEPT
10-18 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AND WEST OF
NOME. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN TODAY AND FRI IN ZONE 213. IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER OF AREA
THAT HAS PRECIPITATION SO THAT OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW.

A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI AND
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AS A 1007 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT...AND TO
NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO BANKS
ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM
SAT...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MCGRATH BY 3PM SAT...AND
TO BANKS ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 3AM SUN.

EXPECT 4-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF NOME AND KOTZEBUE. EXPECT 4
INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE
COLD FRONT CREATING BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST/ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE. IN ZONE 204 THIS IS A
SET UP FOR A SEVERE BLIZZARD WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 70
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ZONE 203. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 MPH
GUSTING 40 MPH IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE TREE LINE.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN. AT THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AT 18Z...BUT ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENTS THROUGH 3PM
FRI...THEN SEE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS AND ECMF MOVING THE
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL
USE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT ON LOW
TRACKING NE ACROSS ARCTIC SLOPE SINCE MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH
THAT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER 3PM FRI WITH ITS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH
MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SAT/SUN. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT FEATURE OCCURING BUT
THE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 6 HR EITHER SIDE OF WHAT GFS IS SHOWING.
SNOW AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY WEST OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 15



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