Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
528 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds
will pick up this afternoon starting out of the west around 18Z
and shifting more northwesterly by 21-22Z around 15 kts. Wind will
then become light and variable after 00Z Monday before becoming
southerly after 06Z Monday around 6-10 kts. Mostly clear skies
are expected throughout the TAF period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

Fire weather concerns continue to dominate the forecast.  No
precipitation expected next seven days.

Fairly progressive active flow aloft expected for the upcoming
days.  Unfortunately, moisture-starved atmosphere is not expected
to yield any precipitation.

A shortwave trof will help drive a weak cold front into the area
today, producing little more than a brief wind shift.  On Monday,
a deepening lee trof will causing south and southwest winds to
increase.  On Tuesday, a surface wave develops just northwest of
the forecast area, with a frontal boundary dropping south, perhaps
briefly intruding into the Oklahoma Panhandle Tuesday night and
early Wednesday.

Sharp shortwave trof passes on Wednesday, bringing the cold front
through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and
evening.  Cold front causes Thursday high temperatures to be
close to climo, with all other days of forecast warmer than

Next lee trof quickly sets up on Thursday, with south winds
resuming by afternoon.  On Friday, next system drives Pacific
cold front into Panhandles, with breezy to windy conditions
expected.  03


Elevated fire weather conditions expected today across southwest
one-third of forecast area, with far southwest (Deaf Smith County)
reaching critical fire weather conditions.

Fire weather watch continues for Monday across western two-thirds
of forecast area, where critical fire weather conditions look
likely to be reached, with elevated fire weather conditions in
remaining sections.

On Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
the western one-third of the Panhandles.

On Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions may develop across
the southern half of the Texas Panhandle ahead of the cold front.

No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected on
Thursday behind the cold front.

Friday may be the next day of critical fire weather conditions,
primarily across the western two-thirds of the Panhandles, as the
Pacific cold front passes.

Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on Saturday, mainly
across the western half of the Panhandles.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
     evening for the following zones: Deaf Smith.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.



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