Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271735
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...
KGUY may start for a brief period at MVFR conditions for the 18Z
TAF period. These brief MVFR conditions may occur at KGUY where
current obs and satellite trends have kept cigs around 2 kft all
morning to now. Eventually getting toward 20Z Saturday, all TAF
sites will be at VFR conditions. For a brief window between 00Z to
around 06Z Sunday, winds will be quite gusty out of the north
along and just behind the front with sustained winds around 20-25
kts with gusts as high as 35 kts possible. Although not mentioned,
LLWS may also be an issue at this time and will be updated with
the next TAF package. VCSH conditions along with a system just to
the north of the area may impact KGUY as well. Otherwise after 06Z
Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with winds subsiding to
10-15 kts out of the north with clearing skies.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items are limited for this forecast package, but will try
to highlight some of the more interesting developments during the
next 7 days.

A cold front will stall out across the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon before pushing through late Saturday night. Height rises
are pretty impressive behind the front at about 10-15 mb/6 hrs, for
mainly central and western parts of the Panhandles. This will create
a strong pressure gradient across the forecast area in the evening
hours. Wind speeds Saturday night will be around 25 to 35 mph for
central and western parts of the Panhandles while gusting in the 35
to 45 mph range before calming down around midnight. That being
said, it will still be breezy overnight with most areas around 20 to
25 mph sustained. With the frontal passage we also have a small
chance for rainfall across northern/northwestern parts of the
forecast area, mainly north of I-40.

After Saturday, we have several chances for rainfall again beginning
Monday and going through the week. Models are not in good agreement
through the work week, so confidence is somewhat low. There is a
little agreement between the European the GFS Wednesday through
Thursday for QPF output, but overall the extended has many factors to
limit confidence for rainfall coverage and timing.

Outside of today, temperatures will be pretty close to normal
through the rest of the seven days. Today`s highs will range greatly
across the panhandles with the cold front sitting across the Texas
Panhandle. Look for highs to range anywhere from the mid-to-upper
70s for northern parts of the forecast area...to the upper 90s
across the southern and southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle.
For far southeastern areas, in and around the Wellington area, dont
be surprised if it gets to 100 degrees this afternoon.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/89


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