Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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009
FXUS63 KAPX 130231
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
931 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY. MULTI-BANDED
STRUCTURE HAS SET UP NICELY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL DISRUPTION. A CLEAR UPSTREAM LINK TO LAKE
SUPERIOR IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DOMINANT BAND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
WRN ANTRIM...KALKASKA AND NE MISSAUKEE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES
ARE LIKELY UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR PER LATEST RADAR SNOWFALL
ESTIMATES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT LESS CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY
COLD AIRMASS NOT ALLOWING FOR LARGE DENDRITIC GROWTH. OVERALL...
LOTS OF VERY SMALL FLAKES ARE NOT EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE IN THIS BAND WITH RESPECT TO
LOCATION IMPACTED...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND SHORT-TERM RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO EXPECTED
SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA. WILL CERTAINLY MAINTAIN ALL HEADLINES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCLUDING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AS WELL AS WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. STILL EXPECTING
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO -20 TO
-30 F. STAY WARM FOLKS!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BECOMING
VERY COLD.

1010MB SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE IS NEAR M-55. NW TO N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS
BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL PASS TO OUR EAST...BUT 850MB TEMPS TO -30C WILL STILL CLIP
EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) IS
CHANGING IN CHARACTER BEHIND THE FRONT...FROM WNW TO NNW BANDING.
LES REMAINS VIGOROUS AT TIMES...BUT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD AIR IS LIMITING SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND THUS ACCUMS
(THOUGH AIDING VSBY REDUCTIONS IN STRONGER SHSN). PRECIP/TEMP/WIND
CHILL TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE WOBBLY SIDE TONIGHT...BOUNCING
BETWEEN NW AND NNW INTO NORTHERN LOWER (WILL BE A BIT MORE SOLIDLY
NNW INTO EASTERN UPPER). ONCE THE FRONT IS FULLY THRU THE AREA AND
THINGS SETTLE DOWN A BIT...LES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO PLACES W
OF I-75 IN NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...ALONG WITH PRESQUE ISLE AND
ALPENA COS. SNOWFLAKE SIZE LIMITATIONS WILL ONLY INCREASE AS WE GET
COLDER...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT A SNOW-LIQUID RATIO OF MORE
THAN 15:1. THAT WILL STILL SUPPORT 2-4 INCH ACCUMS TONIGHT IN
LEELANAU/GD TRAV/ANTRIM/KALKASKA COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL ON THE
BRISK/WINDY SIZE...ESPECIALLY EARLY...AND VSBYS WILL BE SHARPLY
RESTRICTED AT TIMES. SO CONTINUING THE WINTER WX ADVIS IN NW LOWER
(W OF I-75) IS VERY MUCH IN ORDER. DO EXPECT SHSN TO DIMINISH ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND AM HOPING
TO DROP OTSEGO/CRAWFORD COUNTIES ON SCHEDULE.

EASTERN UPPER MI HAS DUAL WINTER WX HEADLINES...WITH SNOW IN THE
WEST AND WIND CHILLS EAST. SNOW WILL NOT BE QUITE AS IMPACTFUL IN
FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK...WITH A SOMEWHAT SHORTER NNW FETCH...BUT
1-3 INCHES IS A POSSIBILITY. MEANWHILE...WIND CHILL CRITERIA
ADVISORY WILL BE SEE IN EASTERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT (PUSHING
-30F). THE BLANKET WINT WX ADVIS THAT IS ALREADY UP WITH COVER
BOTH HAZARDS...AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO SAT MORNING.

NE LOWER WILL HAVE EVEN LESS OF A FETCH TO WORK WITH. EXPECT
SOMETHING LIKE 1-2 INCHES IN EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE CO.

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE SNOWBELTS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE AS COLD AS THE LOWER MINUS TEENS F IN THE ST MARYS
VALLEY...AND AS COLD AS -10F IN NE LOWER MI (CHEBOYGAN/ATLANTA).
WHEN COMBINED WITH 5-15MPH WINDS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
(-20F) LOOKS TO ALSO BE MET IN OTSEGO/OSCODA COS. THOSE WILL BE
ADDED TO THE ONGOING HEADLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS A BRUTALLY COLD
WEEKEND WITH SOME SNOW...BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

SATURDAY...SFC SYSTEM WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A 500MB TROUGH WHICH SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS IN THIS UPPER PATTEN WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN -24C AND
-28C ACRS NRN MI. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP TO WELL BELOW ZERO (FOR LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM GREAT LAKE INFLUENCES).

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SATURDAY WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...AS 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE THROUGH 18Z
IN LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE
REGION (850/500 MB RH DROPPING TO BTWN 50 AND 60 PCT). LAKE EFFECTS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUENCE OVER NRN MI THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-850MB WINDS PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6K FT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
FOCUS THE SNOW MORE DIRECTLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
SHORELINES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE BECOME LIMITED SATURDAY EVENING...HINDERED BY LIMITED MSTR AND
VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES (BELOW THE INVERSION) AT TEMPS BETWEEN
-15C AND -20C.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
DRAGS A SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
GENERALLY A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR EXITS EAST. HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF
CLIPPER AND DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE
FROM SOUTH FLOW LAKE EFFECTS...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -13C.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 3K FT
AND SHIFTING WINDS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY 18Z MONDAY...SFC-850MB WINDS TREND MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 6K...ENHANCING
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN SUNDAY AS DEEP
UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO -16C SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING TO -12C MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS
FROM THE TEENS SUNDAY TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED. AFTER A VERY COLD
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT...POSSIBLY
GETTING JUST ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST AND A CLIPPER PASSING TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH WILL HELP TO DEVELOP MORE TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION...AND ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK. THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY
WAA AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW ONCE AGAIN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY GETTING WARM ENOUGH BY FRIDAY TO BRING SOME
RAIN SNOW MIX. THE COLD AIR OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT OVER
LAKE INSTABILITIES TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND FORCING DO NOT CURRENTLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD DENDRITIC FORMATION AND BIG ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LAKE EFFECT.
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TAPPING GULF MOISTURE...THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BE ONE TO WATCH. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
COURSE...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME P-TYPE ISSUES TO WORK OUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES VARY
ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NRN
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS RELATIVELY SMALL
SNOW FLAKES AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS COMBINE TO VERY
EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY REDUCE VSBYS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH GALE FORCE IN SPOTS...BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ008-015-
     019>021-025>027-031>033.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
     022>024-029-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JZ



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