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000
FXUS64 KBMX 071002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD CORE (-22 CELSIUS) 500MB LOW HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS BLANKET MUCH
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE CLEAR AREAS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9AM FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH OBSERVING SITES ARE NOT REPORTING
RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING WEAK ECHOES FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. NOW THAT THE UPPER
LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF ALABAMA...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY
ACCELERATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY NOONTIME TODAY. WITH ONLY WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65 CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
A REALLY NICE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. A FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL MEANS ANY
UPSTREAM SYSTEMS WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE SYSTEM
IS PHASED TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES...BUT THE
SOUTHERN IMPULSE BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE AS IT TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO..AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF
WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES ALABAMA...AND LEFT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO GETS EJECTED EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE
SHORT WAVE TROF FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND KEPT LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL APPROACH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS
CUT-OFF. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT COOLER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WELL THE PERSISTENCE IFR CEILINGS MATERIALIZED BUT WERE NOT
COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS ISSUANCE STILL ADVERTISES IFR
CEILINGS AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE AT
BM/ANB. THESE LOW CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR AND -DZ/-RA UNDER THE UPPER LOW.

THE UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING RIGHT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS
WRITING. THE KICKER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM EAST AND NORTHEAST SHORTLY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY HAS SOME CLEARING SKIES BACK IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS LEAVE THE AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
18Z. BY AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT HAS ALREADY STARTED SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH
IN A FEW SPOTS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. AS A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...WINDS MAY GAIN A LIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT OR GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  37  67  42  68 /  20   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    59  38  69  44  69 /  30   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  41  70  48  69 /  10   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  62  40  71  46  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      60  41  69  47  69 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      57  40  68  49  69 /  30   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  61  40  71  47  72 /  10   0   0  10  20
TROY        60  38  70  45  73 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: FAYETTE...LAMAR...MARION...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$