Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281135
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A weak frontal boundary was located near a Demopolis to Alexander
City line. Surface temperatures have fallen into the 50s north of
Interstate 20 early this morning, while readings were still in the
upper 60s to lower 70s south of the front. The air mass across
Alabama is relatively dry with little if any cloud cover near the
front. The surface front could trigger an isolated thunderstorm
across the far southeast this afternoon, otherwise mostly sunny
and less humid conditions today. West to southwest winds ahead of
the next cold front will result in above normal temperatures
today. A deep closed upper low over the Great Lakes region will
dig southeast today and send a reinforcing shot of cooler air into
central Alabama tonight. The system will bring some cloud cover
into the area tonight but the air mass will be too dry for any
rainfall.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

A large closed upper low moving southward through the Ohio Valley
will become cut off from the main jet stream on Thursday and
stall out over TN/KY. A several lobes of vorticity will rotate
around the low and drive a cold front southward across South
AL/GA and eventually offshore. A fairly strong temperature
gradient is expected across the CWA on Thursday with low/mid 70s
north to the mid 80s in the southeast counties. Light winds and
mostly clear skies should lead to lows ranging from the upper 40s
to mid 50s on Friday morning. Temperatures will moderate beginning
on Friday as the upper low reverses course and heads northward.
Widespread 80s are expected for Sunday through early next week,
and enhanced heating of the boundary layer due to the drought
could cause 90F readings in some locations.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

LCL LIFR conds at KTOI this morning due to fog. The fog should
burn off quickly with VFR conds by 1330Z. Elsewhere, VFR conds
expected thru the period. A dry cold front will approach Alabama
from the north tonight. Ahead of the front west to southwest sfc
winds will increase by 16z with gusts up to 18 knots possible at
the northern TAF sites. The winds will diminish after 00z. A
narrow band of deeper moisture across se Alabama could result in
isold TS between 18z and 22z, but confidence to low to mention at
KTOI.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from a slight chance of rain in Southeast AL today, dry
weather is expected through the next 7 days. No fire weather
concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  55  74  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
Anniston    86  56  75  51  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  59  75  53  77 /   0  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  58  77  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  58  76  53  77 /   0  10   0   0   0
Auburn      88  61  81  54  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  61  82  54  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Troy        90  61  84  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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