Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 301457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
957 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY SPINNING ACROSS THE AREA
ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS LOW AND EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 3-5 DEGREES.
EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LOW CIRCULATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AND CYCLE TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE
LOW...WE ARE SEEING RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SO...
NORTHEAST TAFS ANB/ASN HAVE SHRA FOR THE LONGEST TODAY BEFORE
TROUGH EXITS. DO HAVE A VCTS MENTIONED IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
PREVAILING SHRA FOR ANB/ASN/BHM...BUT THINK OVERALL MORE OF A
RAIN ISSUE THAN THUNDER. ACROSS THE SOUTH AT MGM/TOI...THEY ARE
PROBABLY DONE FOR THE RAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...SO I WON`T MENTION IN THEIR TAFS AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE LOW CIGS TO WORK
THEIR WAY OUT OF MGM AND TOI WITH CIG AND FOG UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TO START THE WORK
WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST AND
IS SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NUMEROUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NE THRU
THE DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RAIN/CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFTING MECHANISMS...MODELS HINTING AT SOME
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ENTERING CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE WEST...AND
THE HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO STAY WELL TO OUR SW EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
TRENDED A BIT LOWER WITH POPS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

IT STILL DOESN`T APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS...IF ANY...FROM WHAT WAS ONCE ERIKA. MODELS TAKE THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY ERIKA`S REMNANTS NORTH
AND THEN STALL IT OUT NEAR THE FL/GA LINE BY WED/THU. RAIN CHANCES
DO INCREASE A BIT BY THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES
NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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