Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 161150 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IT APPEARS THAT OUR PESKY SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED BACK A BIT
NORTH...BASED LARGELY ON DEW POINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG WAS EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLIER...AS A FEW SPOTS SHOWED VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE. BUT THE
WORST VISIBILITIES HAVE SINCE IMPROVED TO THE POINT WHERE A DFA IS
NOT NEEDED. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...AND IN THE
HWO...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER.

MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AREAS
OF THE SOUTH.

THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER...WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS. INTERESTINGLY...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS
TO THE PLUME OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IN THE
PACIFIC. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS BEEN BRINGING
VISIBILITIES UP AND DOWN WHICH HAS BEEN MORE TROUBLESOME ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE WESTERN HALF HAS HAD MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ANY LINGERING LOW CIGS/FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID MORNING WITH MIXING. A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE A MENTION OF TSRA TEMPOED IN
FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST POTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...IE EET/ANB/MGM/TOI.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  64  83  59  83 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    87  66  84  60  83 /  30  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  88  67  85  63  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  90  68  89  64  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      87  68  87  63  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      89  69  89  63  87 /  40  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  91  70  91  64  89 /  40  20   0   0  10
TROY        91  69  91  63  90 /  40  20  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61




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