National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBMX 071155 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OUR SURFACE FRONT IS JUST TO THE SE OF C AL TAFS TOWARD THE AL
COAST EXTENDING NE INTO GA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR
IS VERY SHALLOW WITH S FLOW JUST ALOFT OF THE SURFACE BECOMING SW
BY 925 MB. THUS...LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE US TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. VCSH CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE FOR MGM/TOI TAFS. AS THE
MOISTURE SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES
BACK TO THE N...SHOULD SEE THE RAIN AREA SPREAD BACK NWD ACROSS
MORE OF C AL BY TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTS STILL IFR CIGS BUT THOSE
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW AREAS GO TO
HIGHER STRATUS CIGS ABOVE VFR BUT THAT SHOULD NOT BE TIL
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BACK THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CREEPS BACK N AS WELL...TURNING WINDS FROM N/NE TODAY TO E/ESE
TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING. TODAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. A TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD...
NEARLY BISECTING THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO
BECOME MORE WELL- DEFINED WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FINAL TROUGH WILL
PUSH THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA AGAIN AND TEMPORARILY
END OUR RAIN CHANCES.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BIT OF A
SPREAD ON THAT SYSTEM STILL 7 TO 8 DAYS OUT.

AT NO POINT DO I SEE ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WINTER WEATHER BUT WILL
STILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST IN CASE THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT RETREAT/ADVANCE AS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OTHER THAN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL SET UP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL BUT NOT UNUSUALLY COLD NEXT
WEEK.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  44  54  50  53 /  10  80 100  90  80
ANNISTON    50  47  57  55  57 /  30  70 100  90  80
BIRMINGHAM  47  45  56  50  52 /  20  60 100  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  47  45  54  50  51 /  20  50 100  90  80
CALERA      48  46  57  53  54 /  40  50 100  90  80
AUBURN      52  49  62  58  66 /  60  40  60  70  70
MONTGOMERY  51  50  65  61  65 /  60  40  60  70  70
TROY        53  51  70  63  70 /  60  30  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/88