Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 271146
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Still no obvious major synoptic scale system coming to us over the
next 7 days, so our weather will remain largely driven by the
mesoscale. Westerly to southwesterly upper level flow will keep
all the main action to our west and north through most of the
period. Really hard to identify any time periods where chances of
convection are more enhanced compared to any other. Perhaps Friday
night or Saturday, when a weak upper level shortwave trough zips
through the region. Will also keep an eye on potential tropical or
sub-tropical development off the east coast, but that system (based
on latest computer model projections) would not be a direct factor
in our weather. So, will continue to go with 20 to 30 percent POPs
at most, largely diurnally driven. The bulk of the period will
also be dominated by temps that are above seasonal normals.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

With an increase in the mean relative humidity there will be more
clouds both high and mid level by the afternoon. Broken cumulus
around 5K feet will likely develop after 18Z. Some isolated TSRA
may also develop during the afternoon... especially eastern
sections of area...but the chance for any one taf site receiving a
storm too low to include in forecast at this time. Overall VFR
conditions and light south to southeast flow should be dominant
throughout the period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the weekend with only minimal rain chances. There are no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  64  86  63  89 /  30  20  20  10  10
Anniston    88  66  86  64  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  90  68  85  67  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  91  69  88  67  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
Calera      89  68  86  66  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      88  66  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  92  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        91  65  88  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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