Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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947
FXUS65 KBOI 132201
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL HELP PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT RANGING FROM 7000 FT IN THE FAR SOUTH TO
AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
SNOW LEVELS RISE AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEY RANGE FROM 8000 FT IN THE
SOUTH TO 6000 FT IN THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH WE WILL
HAVE A RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...WE HAVE NO
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES OUT BECAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE JUST TOO
HIGH. HOWEVER...FOR ANYONE GOING ABOVE 6000 FEET TOMORROW...YOU
WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...
EXPECT AROUND 0.20 INCH OF RAIN...WITH AROUND 0.10 IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE
WARM FRONT...EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND PRECIP WILL END FROM SW TO NE DURING THAT PERIOD.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN VALLEY COUNTY AND THE NE BOISE MTNS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PUSHING THE MOIST FLOW
TO THE NORTHEAST. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AS A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE SURFACE
MIXING. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5- 6K FEET MSL...AND WILL DROP TO 4-4.5K FEET MSL THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
BOISE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF AN INCOMING WEAK DISTURBANCE FOR THE REGION. HAVE
GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THURSDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS SUN/03Z UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE SUN/12Z...REACHING KBOI BY
SUN/09Z AND KTWF BY SUN/12Z. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5K FEET MSL.
SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH
10K FT MSL...WEST 20-30 KT...BECOMING NW 35-50 KTS BEFORE SUN/18Z.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AFTER
18Z TO ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE TO 5-7K FEET MSL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/DD
AVIATION.....AB



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