Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOI 050244
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACNW. SO FAR THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN SE OREGON AND A A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SW IDAHO. STILL
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO BETTER REFLECT THAT AREAL
COVERAGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SE OREGON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 35KT IN VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL...SSE 20-30KT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO TO
INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS.
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF ID ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL ENCOUNTER AN DECENT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
SUPPORT STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
HARNEY...BAKER...ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WITH THIS HAVE ADDED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
TROUGH FULLY SPLITS THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER CELLS TO DEVELOP. WHILE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY THEY
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OREGON AND
IDAHO ZONES. INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR
THE AREA OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THINGS START TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE JUST A SLIGHT MENTION OF IT
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL BE
2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.