Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 280951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
351 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Dry and mild conditions expected
today as high pressure builds aloft. Areas of high clouds will
limit the development of fog before sunrise, but may still see
some development in the more sheltered mountain valleys in Idaho.
Breezy conditions again today in areas of southwest Idaho, south
and east of Mountain Home; winds will diminish after sunset.
Southwest flow aloft Wednesday as the next Pacific system moves
into the region. The cloud deck will increase and light showers
will develop from the northwest to the southeast through the
course of the day. Temperatures will increase 3 to 8 degrees,
from about normal Tuesday to above normal Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...Warm and moist
southwesterly flow aloft is still on track to take aim on the region
Wednesday night through Thursday ahead of an approaching trough out
of the Gulf of Alaska. Snow levels during the period of heaviest
precipitation (Wednesday night through Thursday morning) will
average 8500 feet, thus snowfall will be limited to the highest
mountain peaks at first. Precipitation amounts are impressive with
this system, as the center of the upper level trough passes by
overhead, with the mountains easily receiving 1.0 to 1.5 inches of
liquid equivalent. This trough will become a closed upper low in
Nevada/Utah on Thursday, and some valley locations could see
upwards of an inch of precipitation. The exact track of the low
will determine the amount and extent of QPF. Snow levels fall to
around 4000 feet MSL Thursday night with accumulating snows likely
at higher elevations. A good chance that wrap around moisture
will produce moderate snow accumulations along the NV/ID border
late Thursday night into Friday. Windy conditions will develop
Thursday afternoon which will persist into Friday as the upper
level low shifts toward the Four Corners region. An upper ridge
builds into the Pacific NW on Saturday for dry weather, mild
temperatures, and light winds. Next Pacific system brings a chance
of showers and cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, although
forecast confidence is low on the timing and details of these


.AVIATION...VFR. Increasing mid/high level clouds this afternoon.
Surface winds: W to NW 5-15kt, strongest SE of KMUO toward the Magic
Valley. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 15-25kt, becoming Westerly 25-
35kt 12z/Wed.


.HYDROLOGY...Minor flooding still expected for the Boise River at
Glenwood for the next several days, with the flow remaining at
8100 cfs. Flood advisory continues for the near future in Camas
and northern Elmore Counties with flow still high on the Camas
Creek. Otherwise, rivers and streams are expected to remain below
flood stage, but will have to be monitored as the next system
moves in and new QPF and snowmelt increase flood potential once
more at the end of the week.





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