Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 200220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
920 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

A warm front will bring showers tonight. This will set the
stage for near record high temperatures Tuesday, and especially
Wednesday, so long as enough sunshine is realized. A cold front
moves through Wednesday night, followed by an additional
disturbance on Thursday. This will bring showers followed by
cooler temperatures, but still at or above seasonal normals.
Another weather system will pass to our west and north over the
weekend bringing another period of wet weather.


915 PM update...

Pre warm frontal showers in warm advection pattern moving
through SNE this evening. Upstream, showers are becoming more
scattered across western NY and expect a decrease in coverage
overnight as warm front lifts north into the region and mid
level drying moves in from the southwest. Areas of low clouds
and fog will likely develop late tonight, especially near the
south coast as the higher dewpoint air moves in over colder
water with SW flow. Locally dense fog is possible.

Temps steady or slowly rising in the 40s.



A few showers and patchy fog may linger along south coastal
areas early, then should push offshore by around midday.
However, clouds will likely linger across most areas through the

The big question will be whether the clouds will dissipate
during the midday and afternoon hours across the interior. If
the clouds do break more than currently forecast, max
temperatures will likely be higher than current forecast, too.

Tuesday night...

Anomalous southwest flow will continue across southern New
England. Low temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees above
the normal high temperature for this time of year. Still
thinking some low clouds and fog are possible, especially near
the Cape/Islands with high dewpoint air moving over the
relatively cool ocean.


Big Picture...

Upper ridge lingers over the Eastern USA while a deep trough holds
over the west. The ridge relaxes south a little Thursday, then a
little more over the weekend. Even so, 500-mb heights remain above
normal through the period.

The ridge relaxes as several shortwaves eject out of the western
trough and erode the heights on the north side of the ridge.
Contours are forecast to be well-packed. The trough axis will be
positively tilted. Expect the shortwaves to be fast-moving.

Good agreement among the model mass fields through Saturday morning.
Differences in shortwave detail, most notably on Sunday and Monday,
but the overall pattern is similar and suggests three disturbances
moving through during the long term period. Just differences in



Upper ridge over the Eastern USA brings deep warm advection into New
England. The question will be how deeply mixing will be able to tap
that warm air. The GFS shows mixing in the interior to 925 mb and
possibly 900 mb, while areas closer to the South Coast may be
buffered by the flow of the southwest wind off the ocean. Temps at
925 mb will be equiv to 5-9C at 850 mb, while temps at 900 mb will
be equiv to 8-11C. This suggests max sfc temps in the upper 60s and
lower 70s inland. Any locations that could eke out a mixed layer to
900 mb should reach low to mid 70s.

Model cross sections of moisture continue to show a layer of high-
moisture air below 925 mb. This could be indicating a low cloud
layer over the region that would reduce or eliminate sunshine and
resulting mixing. That would keep temperatures several degrees
lower. This will need to be monitored.

Mixing will also tap stronger winds aloft. Winds at 850 mb will be
40-50 knots. Within the mixed layer winds will be 25-30 knots, with
gusts to those speeds possible Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday...

Shortwave and associated surface low pass across Quebec and push a
cold front south across New England. Consensus between the GFS and
ECMWF brings the front across our area during the evening hours. The
ECMWF does so briskly with no hesitation, while the GFS shows
similar initial timing but then forms a couple of waves on the front
and slows its departure off the south coast. Moisture cross sections
from both models show low level moisture with minor lift Wednesday
night, then deep moisture and strong lift Thursday...overlying a dry
layer near the surface. Precip Water values continue to show well
above normal levels.

So some contradictions that cut back on confidence. But sufficient
elements to indicate a chance of showers, especially on Thursday as
the strong forcing moves through.

Expect cooling behind the cold front Wednesday night with temps
falling to the upper 30s and 40s. Mixing to 950 mb supports max sfc
temps Thursday in the 40s.

Friday through Monday...

High pressure from the Northern Plains moves east to New England,
bringing clearing skies for Thursday night. Clouds then move back in
during Friday.

As noted above, model consensus shows a couple of shortwaves moving
through the flow over the weekend. But the fast-moving pattern
reduces confidence in exactly timing the passage of each across New
England. The first should move through anywhere from Friday
afternoon to early Saturday, the second on Sunday.

High pressure over the Maritimes Friday is in position to hold cold
air over New England at the start of the first event. This would
mean a brief period of snow or ice before changing to rain Friday

If timing goes as forecast, high pressure builds Monday with dry
weather and near seasonable temperatures.


Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence in trends.
Moderate confidence in timing.

Tonight...Conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR. Areas of LIFR in
stratus and fog, locally dense, developing along the south
coast overnight. Showers will diminish overnight.

Tuesday...Mix of conditions. MVFR VSBYS/MVFR-IFR CIGS in
scattered -SHRA and patchy fog early, improving to VFR.
However, MVFR to local IFR conditions may linger along the S
coast through early afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Areas MVFR/IFR conditions should redevelop in
low clouds and patchy fog. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA toward the
S coast.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, slight
chance FZRA.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, chance
FZRA, patchy BR.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
slight chance FZRA, patchy BR.


Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.

Rough seas still expected to develop across the ocean-exposed
waters with the arrival of southerly swells. Will need to
continue the Small Craft Advisories across those waters.
Scattered showers and patchy fog will bring reduced visibility
tonight, then should improve on the eastern waters Tuesday.
Reduced visibility lingers Tuesday into Tuesday night on the
southern waters in patchy fog and isolated showers.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate to High

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.


Record Highest Observed Temperature for February...(since
records began)

Boston.........73 (2/24/2017)
Hartford.......73 (2/24/1985)
Providence.....72 (2/24/1985)
Worcester......69 (2/24/2017)

Record High Temperatures...


Boston.........68 (1930) 63 (1906)
Hartford.......69 (1930) 63 (1930)
Providence.....69 (1930) 63 (1930)
Worcester......65 (1930) 59 (1930)

Record Warmest Min Temperature...


Boston.........46 (1930) 45 (1994)
Hartford.......50 (1981) 49 (1981)
Providence.....48 (1981) 50 (1981)
Worcester......47 (1981) 43 (2002)

Extreme High Dew Points...
Dew Point forecast has values in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.


Boston.........54 (1991) 56 (1953)
Hartford.......53 (1981) 55 (1989)
Providence.....58 (1939) 56 (1989)
Worcester......53 (1981) 54 (1953)


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237-


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