Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 010603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA AS A RESULT OF THE WET GROUND
FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
IN ALL LOCATIONS.  ALSO...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A TIME.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THERE IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/NMB



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