Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 241008
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
308 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Upper low dominates the weather picture across our region with an
associated deformation zone extending from Idaho across southern
Montana and Wyoming. Weak easterly upslope is providing some lift
in the unstable lower and mid levels. As mentioned in previous
discussions, the weak factors driving the snow showers and bands
makes it difficult to pinpoint areas outside of the foothills for
the best chance of measurable snowfall. We will continue to broad
brush scattered to likely PoP`s over the central and western
sections based on blended guidance and anticipated terrain
influences, but additional snowfall should be limited. There is a
slow decreasing trend in PoP`s this afternoon and into tonight as
easterly flow ends and weak westerly flow takes over. For tonight
then, with little forcing, there should only be a few areas of
light snow around due to the proximity of the deformation zone.

A secondary trof axis moves across our region Saturday leading to
increasing areal coverage of light snow again. However, accumulations
at the lower elevations will be limited by a brisk westerly
downslope Saturday. At this point, its hard to imagine any
impacts or drastic changes in widespread travel conditions. Look
for precipitation to diminish Saturday night as that upper trof
axis slides southeast of the region.

As for the current Winter Weather Advisories in effect until noon
today...we do not expect much additional snowfall (around an inch
at best for most of these locations), but believe its prudent to
hang on to the highlights through the morning commute. BT


.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Unsettled northwesterly flow expected through most of the extended
period. On Monday, an upper low deepens and slides into the
western CONUS. We remain to the north of the low position keeping
our temperatures below normal through the mid part of the week.
Lee side surface low develops over northern Wyoming on Monday
morning with warm front sliding northward bringing scattered snow
showers to the Mountains, Foothills, and central Plains. Unsettled
flow keeps isolated snow chances in the Mountains and foothills
through the end of the week. Models suggest several rounds of low
pressure systems sliding west to east along the Canadian border
from the mid part of the week onward, with a ridge sitting over
southern Idaho. This pattern could yield several periods of gusty
winds from Livingston northeastward to Harlowton. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...


MVFR conditions prevail with low CIGS across much of the region
through the morning hours. Snow showers are expected across much
of the area through the morning. Locally heavy snow showers will
lower VIS to IFR/LIFR at times at LVM, SHR, and BIL. Walsh


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033 020/033 020/035 019/031 018/033 019/040 024/043
    5/J 43/J    11/B    33/J    22/J    11/N    22/W
LVM 027 012/026 013/029 012/027 012/028 016/034 022/040
    6/J 53/J    22/J    44/J    42/J    22/J    22/W
HDN 036 019/035 017/038 016/034 017/035 018/042 023/045
    3/J 33/J    11/B    33/J    22/J    21/B    22/W
MLS 036 023/036 021/038 020/035 021/034 019/041 023/042
    1/E 22/J    21/B    34/J    22/J    12/W    21/B
4BQ 036 020/035 019/038 017/037 020/035 017/041 023/044
    1/E 13/J    21/B    23/W    22/J    21/N    21/B
BHK 031 018/032 018/034 016/032 017/031 015/036 019/037
    0/E 12/J    21/B    23/J    22/J    22/W    21/B
SHR 029 013/030 010/033 010/032 013/030 013/038 019/043
    3/J 33/J    11/B    12/J    12/J    21/B    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR
      ZONES 38-41-56-65-66.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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