Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 290916
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...
No significant changes were made to the short term forecast
period for this package.
Water Vapor imagery tonight clearly shows a short wave moving
southeastward through Alberta. Its influence is responsible for
an area of convection currently moving across north central
Montana. Some of the short term proggs bring this activity into
northern Rosebud County this morning and vaguely shift it into the
southeast corner of Montana in the afternoon. Elsewhere...the high
country may see some convection from differential heating and
local convergence by afternoon. Otherwise...models not very
bullish on convection today, likely due to a lack of strong forcing.
I will keep a slight chance PoP across the entire CWA, but it does
not look very active relative to the earlier part of the week.
Shear looks rather limited so believe severe threat is rather
limited as well.
We will see some modest ridging on Saturday in response to a sharp
trough dropping down through British Columbia. Pre-frontal warming
will push temps well into the 90s and RH readings should dive into
the teens to lower 20s range. Models suggest some weak impulses
ahead of the main trough may fire off some convection Saturday
evening over our mountains. Inherited PoP forecast already handled
this well. BT
.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...
Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period. High pressure ridging will be in place over the forecast
area Sunday in response to an upper low and trough that will be
situated over southwest Canada. This will result in dry conditions
and hot temperatures with readings well into the 90s.
As the upper low and trough move across southern Canada it will
bring a weak front across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon/evening resulting in a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm. Otherwise, the front will not have much impact
except to lower temperatures just a few degrees for Monday.
Weak ridging builds Monday into Tuesday as a stronger upper low
and trough move onto the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system
moves north then east across southern Canada it will sweep a
stronger front across the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon or
evening along with a returned chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure ridging then slowly builds back again
Wednesday into Friday. Compressional warming ahead of the front
Tuesday will allow temperatures to warm well into the 90s before
cooling back to around normal values for Wednesday and Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail today. However, some patchy fog
will be in the KBHK area and along the Dakota borders through
20Z. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon
and evening that may produce a brief MVFR condition. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will be in store today. Hooley
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
BIL 089 063/095 066/095 061/090 062/094 059/085 057/086
2/T 20/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U
LVM 089 053/094 055/093 051/091 054/091 050/084 048/086
2/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 11/B 11/B 11/U
HDN 090 059/096 064/096 060/092 060/097 056/087 054/087
2/T 20/U 11/B 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 087 062/095 066/096 063/092 063/096 061/087 058/086
2/T 10/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
4BQ 088 061/095 066/097 063/093 063/097 061/087 057/088
2/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 083 057/091 062/094 060/088 059/091 058/084 055/084
2/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 088 055/095 060/095 058/091 057/095 055/086 053/087
2/T 21/U 13/T 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U