Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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