Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230847
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

CONVECTION WHICH IMPACTED SOUTHEAST MT YESTERDAY EVENING HAS
EXITED INTO WESTERN SD. RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING OVER OUR CWA WITH
LATEST H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING HEIGHTS TO 594DAM AT 2AM...AND AN
IMPRESSIVE 600DAM OVER COLORADO. WE WILL BE DRAWING HOT AIR OUT
OF THIS RIDGE AND 700MB TEMPS TO NEAR +17C WILL HAVE A SERIOUS
IMPACT ON OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SE
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN OUR EAST...WHERE CAPE/SHEAR VALUES COULD
EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER IF NOT FOR THE CAPPING MID LEVEL
WARM AIR. WITH HIGH HEIGHTS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF
ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY HAVE REMOVED TSTM CHANCES FOR OUR EAST
TODAY. KEPT ISOLD CHANCES IN OUR EAST AND FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND THERE SHOULD BE RIDGE RUNNER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLD
STORM IN FAR N/E PARTS OF OUR CWA. ELSEWHERE ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE AXIS TODAY...WE WILL BE HOT AND BETTER MIXED...MIXING DRY
AIR THAT IS...NOTE THE -10C 700MB DEWPT AT SLC AT 00Z YESTERDAY.
WE COULD SEE A FEW TSTMS IN OUR NW NEAR WESTERN MT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT. IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS
INCLUDING BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN...EXPECT CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES OF
14-15KFT IF WE BREAK THE CAP. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR VIRGA AND
IF LUCKY AN ISOLD SPRINKLE...BUT WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...WHEW...IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY YET OF
2014 AND SOME PLACES WILL REACH 100F. THIS MAY INCLUDE BILLINGS
AND SHERIDAN AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.
LIVINGSTON DAILY RECORD OF 101F WILL BE APPROACHED ESPECIALLY IF
SW WINDS ARE MIXED OUT...WHICH THEY SHOULD.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON THURSDAY REVOLVES AROUND FIRE WEATHER AS
PAC TROF BREAKS DOWN THE CURRENT RIDGE. COLD FRONTAL TIMING WILL
BE THE KEY AND MODELS REMAIN DIFFERENT HERE...THOUGH THE ECMWF
AND NAM HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER IN THEIR 00Z RUNS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE NAM STILL INTRODUCES STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND NW WINDS
IN THE MORNING...SO MUST STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY. THOUGH THE GFS IS
THE HOTTEST MODEL AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SO...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH COULD
SPEED UP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN OUR AREA...
SOMETHING THE GFS WOULD MISS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...WE WILL SEE TEMPS OVER 100F IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. SO
WILL STAY WITH A SOMEWHAT MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100F...ALONG WITH GUSTY/VEERING WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING...AND RHS IN THE TEENS AS WE CONTINUE TO DRAW DRY AIR OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE DANGEROUS FOR
ANY EXISTING FIRES AND POTENTIAL NEW STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE FWF/HWO/GRAPHIC.

THERE ALSO IS A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS. SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BRIEF PERIOD OF QG FORCING WARRANTS A MENTION OF
TSTMS...AND THERE MIGHT BE A WINDOW OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR FAR EAST OR NORTHEAST...THOUGH IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SEVERE WX ENDS UP TO OUR N/NE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S...MAYBE 40S IN OUR WEST.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH ENERGY FROM FROM A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ALOFT STAYING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY. RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GFS BRINGING A WEAK
TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
MAINTAINS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN MODEL
INCONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP JUST ISOLATED POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLAINS LOOK TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS
700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE +12C WITH BUILD RIDGE. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY. THE
ONLY FLIGHT HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EVENING OVER
EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 066/098 057/085 057/084 058/086 058/090 061/091
    1/B 12/T    11/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 100 056/091 047/082 048/083 049/087 051/090 054/091
    1/U 11/N    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 100 062/101 055/086 056/086 057/087 056/091 059/092
    1/B 12/T    11/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 098 067/097 058/084 058/084 058/085 058/087 061/089
    1/B 22/T    21/U    10/N    00/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 098 064/100 058/085 057/085 057/084 057/087 059/089
    1/U 12/T    21/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 091 062/096 056/082 053/082 053/082 052/083 055/085
    1/N 22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 099 059/100 053/085 053/084 053/084 053/089 055/090
    1/U 11/U    11/U    11/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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