Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 290612
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
212 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
A cold front will slowly push through the forecast area today,
stalling near the eastern FA. A reinforcing dry front will come
through Thursday night and Friday. Behind these features, drier and
cooler air will filter into the region. Fair weather expected over
the weekend, with weak high pressure and dry air over the region.
A gradual moisture increase possible next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some convection continuing over our E/NE forecast area (FA) along a
prefrontal trough. High resolution models suggest this activity
will gradually dissipate or push out of our FA late tonight.
Upper level low over the Ohio Valley. SW flow aloft over our region.
Slow moving surface trough appears to be stretched across the
central Carolinas, while main frontal boundary/dewpoint gradient
appears to be shiftng into our northern FA. The main front is
expected to merge with the prefrontal trough and shift towards the E
FA today, where a few showers and thunderstorms expected. Due to
dry air aloft and moderate instabilities, isolated severe cells
will be possible.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Closed upper level low will remain nearly stationary over the Ohio
valley. A reinforcing surface trough will slowly move through our
FA Thursday night and Friday, with weak high pressure shifting
into the region Saturday. Dry air appears will preclude any
significant precipitation. Cooler temps expected.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper closed low will shift east towards New England, while
surface high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. Some
premise for low level moisture recovery with possible low level
flow off the Atlantic developing. Accepted model blend of slight
chance pops, mainly E FA. Will be monitoring tropical cyclone
Matthew currently forecast to move west through the Caribbean,
then turn to the north. It is still too early to speculate on any
impacts for our FA next week.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Late evening convection occurring mainly north and east of the
terminals although OGB could be impacted by a scattered storm
during the 06z-07z time frame but did not include in the forecast
due to uncertainty. A slow moving cold front will cross the region
today with much drier air building into the region from the west
as an upper low meanders southeastward into the Tennessee Valley
and central Appalachians.
Probability of restrictions due to fog or stratus is lower
tonight given drier air working into the region and presence of a
low level jet. If any restrictions develop think AGS/OGB would be
most favored and conditions should return to VFR by 13z. Any
convection that develops with daytime heating likely to occur
north and east of the terminals. Deep mixing will support some
wind gusts 15-20 knots this afternoon with prevailing winds from
the southwest around 10 knots. Dry air should preclude fog
development early Friday morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.