Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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038
FXUS62 KCAE 121958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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