Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 291445
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
Upper level ridge off the southeast coast allowing an increase in
moisture for the weekend. Chances of thunderstorms will increase
through the weekend. Temperatures will lower a few degrees...however
afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s
through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridge off the southeast coast with southwest flow
aloft across our area. As an upper level trough digs into the MS
River Valley could see weak short wave cross the Upstate this
afternoon. Instability will be moderate across the Midlands and
CSRA this afternoon...however upper level support will still be
lacking. Continued slight chance pops across the area for this
afternoon into this evening. Potential for severe thunderstorms is
low but with some mid level dry air remaining there is potential
for damaging wind gusts. Short wave approaching the area this
evening could keep thunderstorms in the area through the evening
hours...however with the limited upper level support expect
convection to dissipate by midnight
Westerly low level flow providing downslope. Afternoon highs once
again forecast to range from the upper 90s to just over 100
degrees. Low temperatures to tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will continue moving eastward and be over the
eastern US Saturday evening trough Sunday. Moisture will continue
increasing with pwat values on Sunday around 2 inches and possibly
higher. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler with high in
the mid 90s instability will be strong...with the exception of
limited divergence aloft. Upper level temperatures will also be a
bit cooler with 700mb temperatures lowering to 7C to 8C and 500mb
around -6C. As such expect increasing chance of thunderstorms
each day and severe threat remaining low with damaging gusts the
main threat. Daytime high will be in the mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with a moist air mass and upper level
trough over the region through much of the long term. Upper level
ridge will begin building back into the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. This will keep chances of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the area with severe potential remaining low.
Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs in the
lower to middle 90s and overnight lows in the middle 70s.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Outside of isolated thunderstorms...high confidence in VFR
conditions through the 24 hour TAF period.
Upper level ridge to linger off the southeast coast with a trough
crossing the MS river valley into the TN valley. Increased
atmospheric moisture and convergence along a surface trough will
allow for isolated convection this afternoon. Low threat for
thunderstorms to impact terminals. Scattered cumulus clouds
forecast this afternoon with bases at for above 5000 feet.
W/WSW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots this
afternoon. Winds diminishing to light after 30/00z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.