Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 021035
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRYING WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS DEVELOP A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST THIS EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING AND MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AND LATE
TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPERATURES
-11 TO -12 C. THE NAM INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FAVOR HAIL.
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE GREATEST RAINFALL TONIGHT...MAINLY
THIS EVENING. THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED GENERAL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-
HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR. THE NAM
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING NEAR 1.8 ON AN INCH. THE HIGH
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS A FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA PLUS THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE THE
MODELS DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE MODERATE
INSTABILITY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATED TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY SHOW A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH
PART. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -25 C COULD
HELP SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL
MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY...MUCH BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MODERATION BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED IN THE CAE VCNTY. SOME
IFR STRATUS NOTED AT OGB OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.  ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION MAY
CREATE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN TAFS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. ALSO...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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