Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 310811
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
411 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnants of Bonnie will meander just off the coast today then
slowly to the northeast over the next few days. This will keep
plenty of moisture across the area along with chances of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls over the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander off the SC coast
today and tonight. Widespread low cloudiness was affecting much of
the Midlands this morning. These clouds will be slow to break up
given abundant low level moisture with dewpoints in the from the
mid 60s to around 70 and PWAT ranging from near 1.4 inches west to
around 2.00 inches east. By afternoon, as clouds break up, the
airmass will become more unstable. Isolated to scattered
convection is expected to develop...although most of the activity
will be over the northeastern part of South Carolina. Have ranged
pops from slight chance across the CSRA to around 40 percent over
the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee region.
Both the NAM and GFS models indicate a weak short wave moving into
the CSRA this evening and crossing the Midlands tonight. So we
could see at least isolated convection lingering overnight.
We kept the temperature forecast near consensus/persistence...with
highs ranging from around 90 west to the mid 80s east and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Bonnie will linger near the southeast coast of NC
Wednesday with upper level heights slightly increasing over our
area. The air mass is forecast to remain moist with PWAT at or
above 1.50 inches. Should see weak to moderate instability develop
with afternoon heating. Have continued chance pops for mainly
diurnal convection. Still expect afternoon highs around 90 with
nighttime lows near 70.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the southeastern states on Thursday will
will slip southeast Sunday as the upper pattern transitions to a
trough over the eastern states for early next week. A frontal
boundary is expected to linger in the area through the weekend in
to early next week. Kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day. Still expect daytime highs around 90 with nighttime lows
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remains of Bonnie will move slowly east northeast during the
taf period. Clouds will linger overnight...especially across the
eastern Midlands with light and variable winds. High levels of
low level moisture presents the potential for restrictions
overnight. The absence of a strong inversion may favor CIG
restrictions across the Midlands. However cloud cover should be
more scattered at AGS/DNL raising the fog potential. MVFR CIGS at
CAE/CUB and OGB are expected late tonight/toward morning...
potentially dropping into IFR.
Today with deeper moisture moving to the northeast there will be
a chance of scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Best
chance will once again be across the extreme eastern portion of
the cwa and Grand Strand. North winds around 6 kts will continue
into the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning restrictions
possible each morning. Low confidence in restrictions in afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday...with
increasing chances Friday and Saturday.