Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
NW WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. COOL ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOME BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TWEAKED MAX TEMP TODAY
UP JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO ONGOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND SHOULD BECOME CALM LATE AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. WE USED THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
WIND WILL BE LIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD REACH THE AREA
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
WEST. EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WIND STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BECAUSE OF MORE
HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AIR MASS MODIFICATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WEST PART CLOSE TO
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 AM MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DURING
THE 100 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR WITH H85
WIND NEAR 50 KNOTS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN
LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE NAM SURFACE-
BASED LI PATTERN DISPLAYS INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRYING BY MIDDAY
MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL INDICATED GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DRY RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND AVERAGE
OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR. VFR CONTINUING
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
FOG PRONE AGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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