Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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