Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 211749
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
149 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
A cold front will continue to cross the eastern portion of the
state through the afternoon. An upper-level trough will begin to
cross the region later this afternoon as the trough axis moves
east of the area by Saturday. Much cooler...drier and more
seasonably cool air will move in behind the front for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Remainder of the afternoon...the cold front will continue to push
eastward across the state and winds will increase from the west
northwest. Wind gusts between 20 and 25 mph will be possible with
higher gusts over area lakes. A Lake Wind Advisory begins across
the area at 5 pm and continues through 8 am Saturday morning.
Late this afternoon through tonight...good cold air advection will
develop over the area. This will enhance the winds over the
warmer lakes waters and thus the reason for the Lake Wind
Advisory. The current lake temperatures are in the lower/middle
70s and overnight lows dipping into the 40s. With good caa and
clear skies...expect temperature to drop off close to guidance.
Leaned more toward the slightly warmer mav guidance with good
mixing. Most areas should see minimum temperatures in the middle
to upper 40s...except the lower 50s over the lakes.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure from the Plains will be building in behind departing
upper trough. Mainly clear sky. Air mass will be dry through the
period with dew points in the 30s and 40s. Weakening cold
advection pattern Saturday expect temperatures slightly below
normal. Local temperature scheme indicating mainly 60s in line
with Mos. With downslope flow and weak cold
advection...temperatures may rise to near 70 in a few locations.
Moderately strong radiation cooling conditions Saturday night so
tweaked temperatures down from Mos. Temperatures in the mid 30s to
around 40 expected.
Southwest winds/weak warm advection Sunday as trough develops in
the mountains and ridge along the coast. Maximum temperatures
should warm to near normal values in the low 70s. With low-level
jet stronger...temperatures Sunday night should moderate somewhat.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another re-enforcing dry weak cold front moves through the area
late Monday afternoon or evening. High pressure will build
southeast from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region early in
the period. A clipper system will move across the Great Lakes and
Ohio valley late in the period...and drive a cold front through
the region late Thursday. Models indicate moisture will be
limited although 12z GFS appears stronger and further south with
surface/upper level closed low in the Ohio valley than ECMWF. GFS
indicating less run-run consistency. With ensemble pops low will
continue dry forecast. Expect highs mainly in the 70s and lows in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front has moved east of the taf sites and winds have
begun to increase. Winds will be from west-northwest around 15
knots with gusts from 20 to 25 knots through the afternoon into
the early evening hours. Winds will remain elevated through the
overnight period and moisture will be limited, so do not expect a
fog threat early Saturday morning. By mid morning Saturday winds
will begin to pick up slightly again from the northwest around 10
knots with gusts around 15 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.