Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 270655
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE LIFR CIGS WOULD BE OGB. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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