Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 220754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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