Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
939 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RADAR WAS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR ERIE PA
ALMOST TO CLE AND THEN TO NEAR BOWLING GREEN. IT SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. SOME SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT EAST OF CLEVELAND. THE ORIGINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT WAS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVED EAST. A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE TRIED TO INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A TROF
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY
6 PM TONIGHT. WILL GET GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL
GET BACK INTO THE 50S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY TYPICAL THIS SUMMER...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

WEEKEND LEFT UNSETTLED...ALTHOUGH NOT A WASHOUT. WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED BROAD BRUSHED LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHS SATURDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY IS A TRICKY FORECAST DAY. THE SHOWERS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR SLIDING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND THIS WARMER AIR COULD BRUSH
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SO THERE MAY BE A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT THE ACTUAL TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE OR BELOW THAT DEPENDING ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT COOL DOWN
SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70 IF IT IS
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER BY TUESDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 6C. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO NNW. SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR (010-020) SOON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS INITIALLY
AND THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY AT TIMES TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WINDS AND WAVES TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RISES SHOULD BOOST THE NORTH WINDS TO
ABOUT 20 KNOTS OR SO. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS/KOSARIK






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