Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 140609
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
209 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND IT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE
HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE
60S...HOWEVER IN THE MID LEVELS THE MOISTURE CONTENT HAS DROPPED
OFF NOTABLY. THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT
AS A RESULT. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING HIGH WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE BETTER IMPACT IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FOCUSED MORE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
UNFORTUNATELY STILL HUGGED 50 POPS...NOT SURE ABOUT COVERAGE AND
MOISTURE.

MONDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE...RIGHT AROUND 80 BUT WILL
BE NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ONLY NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD MAY BE
ABLE TO BRING ABOUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR TWO. LESS THUNDER
CHANCES. HAVE CONTINUED THE 20/30 POPS MAINLY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAKES US WONDER IF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD FALL INTO THE DRIER LOWER LEVELS. IF IT CAN OCCUR IT WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.

AFTER A COOL START IN THE 50S THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE AREA WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO GET CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MAY END UP PRODUCING A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. SO WITH THAT SAID WE DID
NOT GET OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MEANTIME
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. IT SEEMS REASONABLE...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR WHETHER THEY SPREAD EAST. FOR NE OH SOME LOW CLOUDS...IFR...ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO CLE AND ERI.
THEY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN CEILINGS AROUND
5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE MOIST AIR.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS KICKED WAVES UP ENOUGH TO GET THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE INTO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
FAIRLY FAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 9 PM END TIME POSSIBLY A BIT
LONGER THAN NEEDED. LATER SHIFTS WILL REEVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WE WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BUILD WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER THE
LAKE. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR EVEN TOWERING CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD GENERATE WATERSPOUTS. DID NOT
ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS YET BUT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ADDED AT SOME
POINT BY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN






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