Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300830
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY. KEEPING AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT THUS FAR HOLDING WITH A STRATUS DECK INSTEAD. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
NOT EXPECTING TO NEED AN ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE AROUND 6 AM.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN OVER WISCONSIN WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. A DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE NEAR 800MB
WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CAPE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE SO JUST EXPECTING GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN BUT SHOULD BE MOVING ENOUGH THAT THREAT FOR NEW FLOODING IS
MINIMAL. DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS PUSHING EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SOME PEAKS OF SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...LOW 70S IN NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS NW OHIO. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP
IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER LAKE ERIE...OR PUSHING INTO NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE PRETTY
LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. ONE LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FEATURE. LEFT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGH
EXPANDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TO END THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 70S TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD A CHANGE WHERE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME.L SOME SMALL PERTURBATIONS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW BUT NO DEEP TROUGHINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHAPING
UP TO HEAD BACK INTO THE TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST AND LARGE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.

IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS WILL NOT BE SPOILED BY
RAIN. THE TREND IS PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME SO WILL BE DROPPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
SATURDAY. A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
COULD BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL GO
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW SUNDAY AND UP POPS TO
A CHANCE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL TAKE PLACE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
SHAPE. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST OF THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP AND DOWN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS ARE POISED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION GOING.
EXPECTING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART LATER TONIGHT.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET SOME BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE MAY GET RILED UP A BIT STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY
BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST BURST OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THEN.  GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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