Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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484
FXUS61 KCTP 200354
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1054 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with well above
normal temperatures is expected through the end of the upcoming
week. A weak cool front will push through the state late Tuesday
and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Satellite loop at 03Z showing broken stratus across southern
Somerset County and clear skies across the rest of central Pa.
Fair weather will continue overnight, as surface ridge builds
east from the Grt Lks. Model soundings do indicate the chance of
some low clouds developing after midnight across the northern
mountains, in addition to southern Somerset County, under the
weak upslope flow and strengthening subsidence inversion. Across
southern Somerset, diminishing wind and higher dewpoints will
also likely lead to patchy fog later tonight. The dewpoint
depression at Somerset Co Airport is just 2F at 03Z.

NationalBlend lows, ranging from the upper 20s northern
mountains to upper 30s in the south, still appear on track based
on latest observations and LAMP guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Patchy low clouds are possible to start Monday over the
northern mountains and part of Somerset County. However, SREF
probability data strongly suggests this low level moisture will
mix out by late morning, resulting in a mostly sunny day for the
entire region.

A shortwave diving southeast toward New England this evening
will push another dying back door cold front into northeast Pa
on Monday. The northeast part of the CWA will feel the greatest
change, with highs potentially more than 10F cooler than today.
However, based on recent performance of model guidance and an
expectation of mostly sunny skies, have leaned toward the warmer
ECE numbers, with highs ranging from the upper 40s over the
mountains north of IPT, to around 60F across the southwest
counties of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.

Upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the state Tuesday
night. The accompanying rather strong sfc ridge slides to the
Mid Atlantic/Southern New England Coast on Tuesday, followed by
a weak cold frontal boundary and a brief period or two of
showers for late Tuesday (West) and over the Central and Eastern
parts of PA Tuesday night into the mid morning hours of
Wednesday.

Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to
suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above
average).

The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to
rebound.

The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still breezy at the office here.

03Z TAFS sent.

Mainly VFR conditions into Monday.

MVFR/IFR ceilings may redevelop, mainly over northern areas
down into the Laurels later this evening into Monday morning.
Similar to today, clouds will mix out by late morning, leading
to VFR conditions.

As the main patch of clouds are south of JST as of 6 PM, and
nothing well to the north, hard to see a lot going on late, but
left forecast close to what the earlier package had.

Outlook...

Tue...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain.

Wed...No Sig Wx.

Thu-Fri...reduced conditions with rain showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Today was the second warm day in the row.

Several records were broken across the region.

The high of 69 degrees at Williamsport today broke the
old record of 60 degrees set in 1997.

The high of 69 degrees at Harrisburg today broke the
old record of 66 degrees set in 1997.

The high of 64 degrees at Altoona today broke the
old record of 61 degrees set in 1994.

The high of 62 degrees at Bradford today broke the
old record of 56 set in 1994.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Martin



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