Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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