Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252153
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCOMING STORM FOR EARLY
FRIDAY AND WHAT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES RATHER IMPRESSIVE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, SUPPORTING SNOW DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EVEN WITH LITTLE FORCING. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK AND BROAD IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH FRIDAY BUT, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLD LAYER IN PLACE. WE USED A CONSERVATIVE
APPRAOCH TO QPF IN COMBINATION WITH THE NAM 12-16:1 SNOW RATIOS TO
DEVELOP A REASONABLE SNOW FORECAST WHICH TURNED OUT IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH AND A HALF FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A HAYS TO
LIBERAL LINE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ASSUMED
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS (LOCATIONS FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY).
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW EPISODE, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IN MANY CASES, ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTOT HE 20 KNOT RANGE. GERANLLY LOWER
WIND SPEEDS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHLTY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE HOURLY TREND OF THE GFS MOS LAMP PRODUCT WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED
FOR FRIDAYS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE WEST WHILE EARLY HIGHS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER NORTH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES. PRECIP CHANCES MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTING UP A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING H85
TEMPERATURES UNDER 5C BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE LOWER 30S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF SNOWPACK LINGER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
UP INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 30S(F) TO NEAR 40F
IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE MAJOR CHANGE IMPACT-WISE IN THE TAFS WILL BE AFTER 06 UTC
FRIDAY WHEN CEILINGS AROUND 500 FT BECOME A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
LOW CEILINGS ARE SUGGESTED BY THE ESRL RAPID REFRESH MODEL AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT
IMPACT THESE TERMINALS (GCK/HYS/DDC) WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
VISIBILITIES (BELOW 3 MILES) UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  28  18  30 /  10  50  60   0
GCK  23  27  14  29 /  10  70  60   0
EHA  23  30  16  29 /  20  70  30   0
LBL  23  28  19  30 /  10  50  40   0
HYS  23  29  16  28 /  10  70  70   0
P28  30  41  21  32 /  10  30  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 4 PM CST /3
PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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