Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070505
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR HAS SETTLED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE TEENS(F) AND LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, LOCATED OVER ALBERTA EARLIER THIS
MORNING, CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME SLIGHT COOLER AIR
RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HOWEVER
INDICATED ANY COOL AIR THAT DOES INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE BRIEF COOL DOWN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS EARLY
SATURDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR TO BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING
FROM +6C TO NEAR +9C.

TONIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMTH IS THE MAIN STORY HERE. WITH COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORS, DECIDED TO GO ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THIS GUIDANCE
IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MEX. THE NET RESULT IS THAT
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, AND 70+ DEGREE HIGHS LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST
DAY IS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL. STILL, THINK
THAT EVEN WITH INCREASING THE FORECAST HIGHS, THE CURRENT GRIDS MAXS
ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE. THE MEX SHOWS 77 FOR DODGE CITY,
VERSUS THE ALTERED 72 IN THE NOW. THE ECE GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN THE
MEX. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL TURN NORTHERLY 5 TO
10KT LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  63  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  63  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  62  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  63  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  64  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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