Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 251805 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS FAIRLY MILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATO
CUMULUS ACROSS NW ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE MONTANA INTO SW MN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPS/WIND AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS EARLY
MORNING...AS COOLER H85 TEMPS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
BOARD. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WE SHOULD HAVE VERY EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. WINDS AT H85 ARE IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU DROP
INTO THE FAR ARROWHEAD...AND THE AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST MAY ACTUALLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE CWA FOR A
TIME. OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

WAA WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A SMALL POP ACROSS NC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A BROAD H85 LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT POSITIONED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING H50 WAVE...WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER.  THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MAIN UPPER LVL WAVE CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H50 LOW MIGRATES EAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HAVE BROADBRUSH CHC POPS WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE H50
TROUGH PASSAGE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE ONLY TWO IMPACTFUL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG
LATER TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS HAVE RESPONDED TO RATHER
STRONG WNW GRADIENT AND MIXING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-18KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 22-28KT RANGE AS OF
17Z. HOWEVER..PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY BE NEAR THEIR PEAK WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BETWEEN 22-01Z WITH THE RAPID
ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING..AND FURTHER TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER THE
04-06Z TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH
LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AND GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TIME OF YEAR..THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEEMINGLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
KHYR/KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  56  44 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  27  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
BRD  60  34  61  46 /   0   0  20  20
HYR  60  31  59  45 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  60  34  57  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$







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