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000
FXUS66 KEKA 192239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION IS BRINGING THE AREA WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THOSE LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH SOME CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE MONDAY AND
BEING REPLACED BY A TROUGH BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH FROM
ROUGHLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ARE LOOKING VERY LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE TROUGH. RAISED POPS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO TO REFLECT THIS, BUT KEPT THEM BELOW CLIMO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE DAY
AND THE POPS GENERALLY REFLECT THIS. A FEW HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THESE SHOWERS. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS MODELS HAVE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
DOWN TO 2500 FEET WITH THIS LOW. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN IT`S
LATE MAY AND SOME SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS, RAISING THE
TEMPERATURES. SO WHILE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT,
THINK IT WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, MAINLY ABOVE 5000
FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATED THE REGION MOST OF TODAY EXCEPT
FOR VICINITY OF EEL RIVER BASIN AND EAST OF HUMBOLDT BAY. FEW LOW
CLOUDS FORMED VERY BRIEFLY NEAR ACV TO CAUSE SOME CONCERN THAT A
BRIEF TEMPO BKN015 MIGHT OCCUR...I WAS WRONG. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. YESTERDAY WINDS A UKI
WERE GUSTY...BUT HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZED AS OF MID-AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY A.M. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE BRING MVFR VCNTY TO
HUMBOLDT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ACV.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS
INTERACTING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF
CALIFORNIA CAUSING NEAR GALE TO STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWING A SHARP RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS, AS EXPECTED. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY THEN EASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER
LOW CROSSING OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KT WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER MAY NEED TO LOWER WINDS EVEN
MORE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED DUE TO THE DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE OTHER STORY IS A LARGE STORM IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC IS GENERATING WAVES THAT WILL MAKE IT TO OUR SHORES ON
THURSDAY. THE ARRIVING WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET AT 15 TO
18 SECONDS. THIS MAY POSE A SHOALING HAZARD IN THE NEAR SHORE
ENVIRONMENT, AS WELL AS 6 TO 8 FT SURF HEIGHT ALONG WEST FACING
BEACHES. THAT SAID, THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF NW WIND ON TOP OF
THIS SWELL. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND ENDS UP BEING, THE
SPECTRUM COULD BE SKEWED TOWARD THE SHORTER PERIOD WAVES. IN THE
ABSENCE OF BUOY 06, WE WILL NOT HAVE BUOY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL ABOUT
12 HOURS BEFORE ARRIVAL. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAY.
BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470-475.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455.

&&

$$

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