Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 211126 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE A BROKEN DECK 050-070
THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN SCATTERING OUT. KDRT DOES HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z-18Z THEN BECOMING VFR.
EASTERN SITES ONLY HAVE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE 17Z-23Z PERIOD. KDRT WILL HAVE
SCATTERED CONVECTION SO HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY IN THE TAF THROUGH
17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. E/SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. WINDS AT KDRT WILL BE
EASTERLY AFTER 02Z AT SPEEDS OF 5-8 KNOTS. THE I-35 TERMINALS WILL
SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AFTER 02Z-04Z. FOR THE 30 HOUR SITES
KAUS/KSAT WILL SEE A N/NE WIND AT 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z MONDAY AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
PW STILL REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES IN THE EAST AND A LITTLE OVER
2 INCHES IN THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND WILL PULL DOWN REMNANT MOIST
AIR FROM ODILE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...THE TREND OF STEPPING
DOWN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM UNMENTIONED 10 PERCENT IN THE
NORTHEAST TO 30 PERCENT ON THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED. MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THOSE RECEIVING RAIN SHOULD
AVERAGE 1/4 INCH OR LESS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON OUR NORTHEASTERN BORDER COUNTIES BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...AND ALL MODELS INDICATE PW CONVERGING AND POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE OR NO CAP...SO WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WE RETAINED POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA. AFTER THAT...THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THUS WE DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AND
PLEASANT MORNINGS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND
WARM AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90.
LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY...AND WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER
TEXAS...WE BROUGHT BACK POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW FEATURED SOMEWHERE
NEAR TEXAS...BUT THE EVOLUTIONS RANGE FROM ONE CENTERED MORE ON
OUR AREA (GFS) TO ONE CENTERED MORE ON THE SABINE RIVER (ECMWF).
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY PLACEMENT...WITH
AREAS EAST OF THE CENTER LIKELY IN AN UNCAPPED...TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER RELATIVELY
DRY. WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  70  89  68  85 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  68  89  67  85 /  10  10  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  69  92  69  89 /  10  10  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  69  88  66  86 /  10  10  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  71  90  70  87 /  30  30  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  70  89  66  86 /  10  10  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  69  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  69  90  69  86 /  10  10  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  71  91  71  87 /  10  10  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  71  93  71  89 /  20  10  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  71  93  71  89 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26




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