National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KEWX 200115
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE ALONG A LANGTRY TO JUST EAST OF SONORA LINE MOVING BACK
WEST. THE FEW MODERATE CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG IT HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RE-ESTABLISHED
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 18Z MODELS STILL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. HIGH
CAPES...AMPLE SHEAR...AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 5KFT ARE DEPICTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
ALONG I35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 05Z
TO 17Z MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE I35 TERMINALS. AFTER 17Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU WERE BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS THE
WRN/NWRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED EVENING STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SPC HAS ALSO BROUGHT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA DOWN INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED THE HWO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THRU MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY
LINE SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER AIR TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL TX DURING MAX HEATING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WITH UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL PAST
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SILENT 5-10 PERCENT POPS AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  94  73  94  72 /  -   -   10  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  72  94  71 /  -   -   10  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  94  71  94  70 /  -   -   10  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  93  71  92  70 /  -   10  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76 100  75  99  75 /  -   10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  93  71  93  71 /  -   -   10  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  95  72  96  72 /  -   -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  72  93  71 /  -   -   10  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  93  75  93  74 /  -   -   10  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  94  72 /  -   -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  73  95  73 /  -   -   10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33