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000
FXUS64 KEWX 071125 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
525 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS THAT ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY NOON. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW END MVFR
CIGS RETURN AS STRATUS MOVES INTO ALL FOUR TAF SITES AROUND 07Z
SATURDAY. CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP TO IFR BY 10Z AND SHOULD REMAIN
LOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. BY 17Z CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT THE END OF THE 30
HOUR TAFS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AND
SPOTTY COVERAGE DID NOT WARRANT THEM BEING MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES FROM
THE WEST AND SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...ENDING THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL STORM TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
AND UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUCH AS
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY TO COOL THINGS FOR FEW
DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  51  65  40  59 /   0   0  40  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  47  64  38  56 /   0   0  40  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  49  65  40  56 /   0   0  40  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  46  60  35  56 /   0   0  30  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  53  72  43  61 /   0   0  20  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  47  63  36  57 /   0   0  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  50  70  42  61 /   0   0  40  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  49  64  39  55 /   0   0  40  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  52  67  43  56 /   0  10  40  60  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  53  68  43  59 /   0   0  40  50  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  52  69  43  57 /   0   0  40  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17