Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 060939
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE SERN EDGE OF OUR
COASTAL PRAIRIE COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK...MOVING EAST. THE REST OF
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
HUGGING CLOSER TO A DEPARTING UPPER LOW...OR ALONG AND EAST OF
HWY 16. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER DUSK...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT COOLING TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED BE MUCH BROADER AND DEEPER...BUT
WILL ONLY PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THIS PART OF TX WITH A STRONG
FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TX IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER NORTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...BASED ON SOME THE HIGHER RES MODELS THAT
REACH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THE TIMING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT SHOULD
THE FRONT ACCELERATE AND ARRIVE WHILE MIXING IS STILL ABLE TO KEEP
RH VALUES LOW. FOR NOW THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOR
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED BELOW. THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE
BROAD ERN US TROUGH FARTHER EAST WITH EACH RUN...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN FURTHER SOFTENING OF THE TEMPERATURE IMPACT BEHIND
THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN AND MAKE FOR ANOTHER
COLD MORNING TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL GET A
QUICK START AS THE UPPER RIDGE REPLACING THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER TX WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...GOOD FOR SOME
DOWNSLOPING. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE WELL ABOVE
EARLY FEB NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE DAYTIME...WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY NIGHTTIME WINDS TO GRADUALLY CATCH UP MIN TEMPS AND RH
VALUES AS WELL BY LATE NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND...LOW CLOUDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABUNDANT...WHILE A DEVELOPING PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS PROMISING TO BRING SOME NEEDED RAIN CHANCES NEXT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS AREA...OR FROM HWY 16 TO
NEAR A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO CUERO LINE. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
BEFORE LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE OBSERVED...SO DO NOT BELIEVE A RFW IS
WARRANTED. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INITIALLY DUE TO HIGHER
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES...BUT THE STRONGER MIXING AND WINDS DURING
THE DAYTIME MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  36  68  37  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  30  66  37  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  33  66  37  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  32  67  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  33  71  40  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  31  66  36  58 /  -    0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  29  69  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  32  66  37  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  35  65  38  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  34  68  38  63 /  -    0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  34  69  39  64 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS


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