National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 292033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PWAT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
