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000
FXUS64 KEWX 221739 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013


.AVIATION...A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAKENING FRONT
RETURNS NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THE MOST PART IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERN AREAS NEAR KDRT SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINING TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS IN THE KSAT
REGION TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND 20Z WITH BKN CIGS AT AROUND 5K FEET.
LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF KAUS WITH
VFR TO PREVAIL. THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
KSAT TO KAUS AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. CLOUDS TO HANG IN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BETTER MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS AND HELP
CIGS RISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING
KDRT WHILE VFR FEW-SCT STRATUS PREVAILS NORTH OF KUVA TO KPEZ TO
K3T5 LINE AND SCT-BKN STRATUS PREVAILS SOUTH OF LINE. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR VSBYS EAST OF A KILE TO KT35 TO K11R LINE AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS SOUTHEAST OF A K11R TO KCOT LINE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. VFR SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE RIO
GRANDE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME S TO SE AT 5
TO 12 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            88  68  91  70  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  97  73  94 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  69  91  71  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  92  71  91 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  72  91  73  91 /  -    0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  73  93  74  92 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  72  93  72  91 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99