954
FXUS64 KEWX 160254
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
954 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The Flood Watch has been extended to 2 AM CDT to account for
continued isolated shower and storm activity moving north from the
San Antonio area into the Hill Country. These storms have developed
along a strip of moist convergence and slightly greater instability
and moisture aloft, with some kinematic support from the nearby mid-
level trough to the west. While coverage has decreased since the
initial development of storms earlier in the evening, the environment
continues to support locally heavy rain rates. Additionally, soils
remain saturated and susceptible to quick runoff from heavy
downpours. Most of the high- resolution guidance shows showers
dissipating by about 2 AM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

An unusually moist airmass remains in place this afternoon, and
the weakened upper level disturbance is drifting over Central
Texas. There are isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
western half of the CWA. There is still a possibility of
locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. The Flood Watch remains
in effect until 9 pm for the Southern Edwards Plateau and the
Hill Country. Up to 3 inches of rain are possible in heavier
showers which could lead to quick runoff. Models are showing
drier weather beginning tonight. No rain is forecast for the
rest of the short term period. Drier weather and more sunshine
will lead to warming temperatures Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will build over TX and generally
support an increase in daytime temperatures during the late
week with mostly dry conditions. The upper ridge will continue
to dominate through the long term. The only chance for rain is
Friday over the Coastal Plains along the seabreeze. Otherwise,
there will be a more typical summertime pattern. Temperatures
will warm over the weekend, but only to a little above normal.

One caveat to the long term is the possibility of tropical
development in the northeastern Gulf. At this time, anything
that develops is forecast to move into the central Gulf coast
and not get near TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA are ongoing mainly over the Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande Plains. They will dissipate this
evening after sunset with loss of heating. No impacts are expected at
the TAF sites. Otherwise, a flying weather pattern more typical of
summer prevails tonight through Wednesday night. VFR skies turn MVFR
overnight into early morning, then mix to VFR by midday. S to SE
winds prevail with breezy/gusty conditions mid morning through the
evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  73  96 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  71  93 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  75  97 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  96  72  95 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  71  94 /  20   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  73  97 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for Bandera-Edwards-Gillespie-
Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-Uvalde.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04