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000
FXUS64 KEWX 251741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST HIGH
CIRRUS OVERHEAD. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES...AND WILL RESULT IN A NW WIND 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18 KTS. WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
CHANGE OTHER THAN BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE
WILL RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TEMPS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN ON
THURSDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MOIST RETURN GULF FLOW...WILL
INCREASE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDCOVER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/PROGRESSION OF A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVEN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE NOT OF GREAT ASSISTANCE WITH CUTOFF LOWS...SHOWING QUITE A
SPREAD...THAT MAY NOT EVEN COVER THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION. ANOTHER
ISSUE WILL BE PHASING OF THIS LOW WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE BEST BET IS TO STICK WITH A STEADY
TREND TOWARD THE MOST LIKELY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO RESULT.
SPECIFICALLY...THAT WILL BE FOR CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED
SHOWERS... LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF...AND A SWING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS PLANNING GOES...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE
BEST COMPLETED BY THURSDAY THIS NEXT WEEK TO AVOID RAIN/COLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  43  71  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  40  71  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  41  71  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  40  70  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  40  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  41  71  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  38  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  41  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  42  68  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  43  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  42  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00