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000
FXUS63 KFGF 210218
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
918 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A WALHALLA
TO NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH SOME GROUND TRUTH CONFIRMING RAIN IS
MAKING THE SURFACE IN BOTH LANGDON AND DEVILS LAKE. WEB CAMS
SHOWING ENOUGH TO WET THE STREETS IN DEVILS LAKE...SO INCREASED
POPS TO SCT SHRA. RAP13 DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING THE
PRECIP...WHICH THE MODEL SHOWS PETERING OUT AROUND 09Z. SO IN
ADDITION TO SOME INCREASED POPS THROUGH 06Z...WILL ALSO REMOVE
POPS AFTER 09Z AND KEEP THE ISOLATED MENTION IN FROM 06Z TO 09Z.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...DID LOWER THE TEMPS IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT NOW (SOUTH) AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT BY MORNING (WEST) AS DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IS POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE
10 PM UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VIS SAT SHOWING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
ND. WV SHOWING UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF SE SASK INTO MB...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MB AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL ND. VERY
DRY LOW LAYERS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE RH VALUES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 PER CENT. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO THE SFC...BUT WILL KEEP IDEA OF ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. WILL INCREASE SKY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND NORTHERN
VALLEY...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SCALED BACK ON EXTENT OF PCPN TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RISE IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN. THE NORTHWEST
IS ALSO GETTING A LITTLE MORE CIRRUS NOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ND. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW BACK TOWARD
KDIK WITH DECENT WEST-NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THERE HAVE BEEN ECHOES
ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST ND BUT HAVE YET TO SEE SOMETHING
ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND. AS THE FRONT MARCHES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG IT...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KDVL ABOUT 00Z...THE NORTHERN VALLEY ABOUT 03Z
AND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS CLOSER TO 06Z. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM KDVL TO KHCO MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID TO LATE EVENING. TEMPS WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT SO
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN ON MON MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOOKING AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR MOST OF TUE WITH SOME
LIGHT RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING BY AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT AND EVEN THEN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT
SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY SO KEPT THE PCPN TYPE AS JUST SHOWERS. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST ON WED BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRI. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN WED AND
CONTINUE WED NIGHT...THEREFORE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION WITH INSTABILITY VERY WEAK AS WE REMAIN
IN THE COOL SECTOR. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 1 INCH THROUGH THU
MORNING. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
MN ARROWHEAD...WITH DEFORMATION TYPE PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL AGREE
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION AS WELL...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP IN THE NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW PRECIP RATES DEVELOP...BUT DON/T PUT
THE SHOVELS AWAY JUST YET. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRI...AND MODERATE SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA AT GFK ROUGHLY 03Z TO 04Z TIMEFRAME AS
A BAND OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVES EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR.
CURRENTLY OVER DVL...WHICH I WILL CLEAR OUT IN TWO TO THREE HOURS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH
TVF...SO WILL KEEP DRY AND REASSESS WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER