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000
FXUS63 KFGF 310544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CLEAR SPOT IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IS STILL FILLING IN AND TEMPS ARE STILL FALLING INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR TOMORROW...PUT IN SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OUTSIDE
THE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A FEW SPITS SHOWING UP IN
CANADA AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH KGFK AND
KTVF HAVE BRIEFLY GONE UP TO VFR. THINK THIS WILL FILL BACK IN AS
THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME CLEARING IN THE WINNIPEG AREA TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT
MOVES BUT FOR NOW THINK WE WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKING UP OF STRATUS BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH WESTERN ND.
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN THE 4000-7000 FT RANGE BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERED CIGS A BIT AT KDVL AND KFAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SNOW BAND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR