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000
FXUS63 KFGF 160446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.  NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUD DECK IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WAS MOVING
EAST ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS. BROUGHT MORE CLOUDS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK WAS ABOUT 50
MILES WEST OF THE BENSON COUNTY LINE. HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE CLOUD DECK WAS DISSIPATING OVER ND BUT NOT SO OVER CANADA. LOOK
FOR TREND TO REVERSE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WITH RETURN
FLOW.  HAVE GENERALLY RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES VALLEY WIDE AND
MORE SO IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUN
AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. UPPER WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINTER STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE
MON/TUE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH/FARTHER NORTH
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE POTENTIAL.
THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WINTER STORM
THREAT. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION...BUT
STILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH MANY THINGS TO IRON.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FAR EAST.

ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND WILL GUST OVER 30
MPH IN THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MOST BULLISH
WITH A BAND OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 290K SFC LOOKS PRETTY STRONG...FOR A
WINDOW OF 3-6HR OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN WAA ZONE. THERE COULD BE
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING PERHAPS SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND WILL
MENTION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY EVEN
BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

FOR MONDAY/MON NIGHT..ALL MODELS DIG A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
HYBRID LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SD. DIFFERENCES APPEAR HERE WITH THE
GFS WRAPPING MORE WARM AIR TO THE NORTH...AND THE BEST FORCING FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP/RAIN SOUTH AND SNOW FAR NORTH. PWATS
WILL INCREASE OVER 0.50 INCHES...SO AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. ALL BUT THE GFS THEN FOCUS PRECIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW/ICE IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD
IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY AND NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTH...SO A
TRICKY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

ON TUESDAY...COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING. BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE IT
DOES SNOW...WITH SOMEONE IN THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
GETTING 6 OR MORE INCHES. WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...STAY TUNED.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA COMING
OUT OF A PCPN EVENT TUES NIGHT...WITH MARKEDLY DIFFERING SOLNS
BTWN GFS AND ECMWF/GEM. FORMER PORTRAYS A BLIZZARD EVENT FOR MUCH
OF CWA WHILE LATTER TWO RESTRICT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TO SOUTH
AND LAKES COUNTRY AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD SETTLE INTO
REASONABLE TRANQUILITY...WITH SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. NET ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE WEEKEND
WOULD NORMALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS IN MID TO
UPPER 30S...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT SNOW COVER...NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME...WHICH PRECLUDES MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR
NOT WE/LL ACHIEVE THESE TEMPS OR REMAIN CLOSER TO FREEZING. AT
THIS TIME BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR ONLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
LEADING EDGE CONTINUES MOVING EAST AT 10-15 KNOTS IN CANADA, LESS SO
IN ND. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 THOUSAND FT ON THE TRAILING EDGE
AND AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT ON THE LEADING EDGE. LITTLE CHANGES TO
CURRENT TAFS. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW FOR SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES