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000
FXUS63 KFGF 070539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

PATCHY SC HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DVL BASIN
SEEPING SOUTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS WINDS ENOUGH TO PUT
APPARENT T CLOSE TO WARNING ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE STILL A WAYS TO GO
TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WARNING
GOING. DID HAVE TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE FA
WITH LACK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TEMPERATURES ON TRACK ALTHOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE DVL BASIN WINDS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
TO APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES.
TRIMMED BACK ON CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPS THIS PAST MORNING GOT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS
LED TO CURRENT MAX TEMPS -5F TO -10F. CONSIDERING VALUES THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD START...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. THE COLDER GUIDANCE VERIFIED BEST LAST NIGHT...AND
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL USE THIS COLDER
GUIDANCE. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5MPH TO 15MPH...WILL
NEED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FA
UNTIL NOON ON SATURDAY.

WILL HAVE TO AGAIN EVALUATE WIND CHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL
INVADE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
AND 12Z MODELS INDICATE LIGHT QPF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FORCING APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND PWATS ARE ONLY AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE 20:1 TO 25:1...SO ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. A BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL BRING A COMPACT
CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. A QUICK PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH. AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE WILL
KEEP HIGHS VERY COLD...EITHER SIDE OF ZERO FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW MAY DEAMPLIFY A BIT
BY LATER NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SOME DEGREE OF MODERATION IN TEMPS
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY ANY WEAK IMPULSE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A PATCH OF VFR/MVFR SC HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN DVL BASIN
AND COULD REACH DVL TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SE SO LEFT OUT OF
NEIGHBORING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER