Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 645 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Updated sky to reflect current trends and the latest model
data. Only minor changes made with this update...forecast on


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Temperatures and precip chances in NW MN will be the main issues
for the period.

Water vapor loop shows the main upper trough over the Rockies,
with a decent embedded shortwave entering Saskatchewan. The
surface trough axis has moved mostly east of the CWA with
northwest winds behind it. Precip over the southeastern counties
has tapered off, and cloud cover has decreased a bit over mainly
the northern and western counties. More clouds will arrive as the
upper trough approaches later tonight, but there should be enough
clear spots at least across the north to get into the single
digits to low teens tonight. With a warmer start and more clouds
the southern counties will stay closer to 20 degrees.

The shortwave moving through Canada will approach our northeastern
counties later tonight and tomorrow morning, and a few of the
models put out some light QPF near Lake of the Woods. Amounts look
very light and there is some question of how much will reach the
ground at all, but there seems to be enough model consistency to
include at least some low POPs in northwestern MN. There will be a
surge of cold air advection behind the upper trough tomorrow. This
should knock back temperatures into the teens and 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Quiet weather will dominate the end of the weekend and beginning of
the work week as northwesterly flow aloft transitions into upper
level ridging over the next couple of days. A colder airmass is
expected to move in place over the Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday morning with overnight lows dropping to the low teens
across the region. By Sunday afternoon winds are expected to become
more southwesterly, brining warmer air to the region and allowing
afternoon temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 30s.

On Monday, an upper level trough is expected to progress across
central Canada. An attendant surface low in central Canada will
induce southerly flow across the area allowing for enough low level
warm advection for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 40s for
much of the region. Precipitation chances will increase along the
cold front for northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. With temperatures expected to
be near or just above freezing at the surface and low levels, a
wintry mix of snow and rain is likely, especially near the Lake of
the Woods region.

Another arctic airmass will move in place behind this low with
strong northwesterly winds possible Monday night into Tuesday. These
winds, along with temperatures in the low 20s, could lead to wind
chill values down to ten degrees below zero for portions of
northeast North Dakota.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours...followed
by some MVFR ceilings moving in from the northwest. It looks like
the cigs would hit DVL and GFK around 09Z and then TVF and BJI
later. FAR likelihood of MVFR is did not include at
this time. Otherwise...the cigs likely will improve by late
morning west and afternoon east.




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