Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251152 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Adjusted rain chances for today through tomorrow as higher
resolution models are becoming more precise and in better
agreement with coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Expect the best chances for rain today in the Devils Lake basin and
along and north of US Highway 2 this morning as lower level dry air
gradually saturates under some weak upper impulses and a strong
850mb jet. Additionally small chances for a few light showers will
persist through the day and evening as these disturbances eject out
ahead of the main system, a strong stacked surface/upper low in
southern Saskatchewan. As this system drifts east into Manitoba, the
greater impact today will be breezy southeast winds at 15 to 25
mph and gusts to 35 mph, with the strongest winds in the
afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s today,
inhibited a bit by cloud cover.

For tonight, the surface low will move northeast into central
Manitoba, dragging a weak cold front through the forecast area from
west to east. Small chances of showers will continue along and ahead
of the front overnight. Winds will shift west behind the front,
which should pass the Red River Valley early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

For Friday and Saturday, the aforementioned system over Manitoba
slowly meanders eastward toward the Great Lakes region. With
west/northwest low level flow and forcing behind the front, the
latest model runs suggest mostly dry periods with a mix of clouds
and sun for Friday through Saturday morning. As a weak upper
disturbance moves around the main system Saturday afternoon and
night, slight chances for some isolated light showers return.
Temperatures will be near normal values through the weekend.

For Sunday through Wednesday, split flow over North America
consolidates into northwest flow aloft as short waves roll over
upper level ridge and carve out a trough over eastern North
America during the period. Longwave upper ridge over the west
coast will shift a little east into western North America this
period. A broad longwave trough over the Northern Plains will
sharpen and shift to eastern North America by the end of the
period. However operational models disagree and maintain a split
flow.

Upper level low pressure system forecast to be over western Ontario
Sun with short waves rotating around system. Diurnally driven
showers can also be expected for Sun through Tue. Showers will shift
east on Tue as upper low shifts east. An upper level trough over the
Aleutians will roll over the ridge. The upper low will move over the
forecast area about Mon and produce showers.

High temperatures were generally increased one to three degree for
Sun. Little change to Mon. High temps were decreased two to four
degrees for Tue and decreased one to two degrees for Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions expected for much of the upcoming forecast period.
Some potential for MVFR cigs near BJI overnight with some showers
but confidence is low at this time. Southeast winds will be
sustained at 10 to 20 kts today with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds
will begin to diminish this evening and will shift to the west
overnight as a front passes through.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JH/BP
AVIATION...BP


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