Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 101653 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF A
KLZZ /LAMPASAS/ TO KACT /WACO/ TO KPSN /PALESTINE/ LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WACO TAF SITE.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING BUT IT HAS SENT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES
MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BE
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALREADY BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGER TODAY AND ANY ACTIVITY COULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE. BELIEVE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND HAVE EXPANDED THE
AFTERNOON POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LOCATION. ALSO RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 30 PERCENT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE RIVER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH...DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS...CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH BUT DO NOT THINK THE BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE IT TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TRENDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST BY
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS HOT AND DRY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW...MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY...WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND...THEN DRIFT SOUTH INTO UPPER MIDWEST
AND AMPLIFY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS SECOND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO WEAK THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY/ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...AND 20-30
POPS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS AS COLD AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE...THEN HIGH TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES
COOLER...OR UP TO 15 DEGREES COOLER WHERE INSOLATION IS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102 THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL THEM IN TO
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78  99  78 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              97  73  97  74  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  75  97 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            96  75  98  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  77  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  78  99  78 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           97  77  96  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         97  73  96  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  71  96  72  98 /  20  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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