Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231754
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF
MVFR STRATUS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION NEAR A LINE FROM VERNON TO ABILENE AROUND 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH OR SO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRANSITIONING FROM SURFACE BASED TO
ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PROVIDE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS IMPACTING DFW AREA AIRPORTS HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO MENTION
A VCTS IN THE 09 TO 12Z WINDOW. ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...GENERALLY LOWER THAN 40 MPH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT BEST...THEREFORE STORMS MAY DIRECTLY
IMPACT SOME AREA AIRPORTS WHILE MISSING OTHERS. THE BEST FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE DFW AREA AFTER 12Z.

A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SEND SOME SHALLOW STRATUS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WACO BY 10Z...REACHING THE DFW AREA TAF SITES AROUND
12Z. STRATUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT QUICKLY FOR DFW AREA
TAF SITES AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS FORECASTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
WEST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE UPPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. STORM MOTIONS TODAY SHOULD
BE IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
FORECASTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INCREASING CIN THIS
EVENING WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO
THE CWA...BUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS...ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7.5C/KM AND CANT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE MID-
LEVELS WILL DRY AFTER 12Z...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LITTLE FORCING. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG. TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...VERSUS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED TODAY.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. THIS NEXT
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...BUT
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE DRYLINE ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE IN WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...LIMITING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST AND THIS IS OUR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PUSHING
THE DRYLINE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. AT 12Z SUNDAY ITS FORECASTED
POSITION IS NEAR ABILENE AND BY 18Z IT IS FORECASTING THE DRYLINE
TO BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS A COMMON PROBLEM WITH ITS
FORECASTS OF DRYLINES AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN WHAT IT IS FORECASTING. TO COMPARE...THE ECMWF HAS THE DRYLINE
ALONG I-35 AND THE CANADIAN POSITIONS IT WEST OF I-35 AT 18Z
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ELIMINATION OF THE CAP BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION FOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE MONDAY MORNING AND COOLER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN OMEGA
BLOCK WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW TO STALL AND DEEPEN EAST OF
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTH FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  67  82  61  85 /   0  30  20   0   0
WACO, TX              86  66  83  60  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             82  63  78  55  82 /   0  20  30   5   5
DENTON, TX            86  67  82  55  84 /   0  30  20   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  66  81  52  84 /   0  20  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  67  82  63  84 /   0  20  20   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  65  81  58  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  65  82  62  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  65  83  61  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  64  83  55  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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