Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291144 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Earlier severe convection has now moved east of all TAF sites with
just lingering trailing stratiform precip off to the east of KDAL
and KACT. An earlier meso/wake low near the Metroplex and also
near Waco appears to be dissolving into the background flow this
hour, with winds more or less uniformly returning to a
southeasterly direction. Winds today will gradually veer ahead of
an approaching cold front with decreasing cloud cover through the
mid-morning hours. Precipitation chances with the incoming front
are much too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs, but breezy
west-northwest winds are in store this evening with its passage.
In addition, some VFR cloud cover appears possible as the core of
the parent upper-low passes just to the north. The breezy west-
northwest winds will then continue through the remainder of the
DFW extended TAF.

Carlaw

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
Squall line continues to move east through North and Central Texas
but should be exiting the region by 6 am. This line of storms is
making steady progress east and dewpoints in the 50s are spreading
across the region behind the front. Most models still convect
storms in our far eastern counties this afternoon and will keep
high PoPs there for now, but the atmosphere may not recover. This
will be the main challenge to monitor and assess today. If storms
do redevelop, they could be severe with a threat for damaging
winds and hail, and possibly a tornado. There remains a low chance
for rain/storms generally along and north of I-20 tonight as the
upper level low crosses the Plains. The track of the upper level
low is now farther north than previous days, so the potential for
additional storms tonight looks to be low. A front will move
through the region tonight bringing cooler temperatures. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Thursday and Friday will be quiet days. Thursday will be cool
with highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s. We will quickly warm up
in the upper 70s and upper 80s on Friday as an upper level ridge
moves over the region, and southwest to west flow in the lower to
mid levels of the atmosphere brings warmer temperatures. Another
upper level low will move into New Mexico on Friday bringing a
chance for rain to the region this weekend.

Unfortunately the model runs tonight are less consistent with the
track of the upper level low than they have been the past few
days. On Saturday, convection is expected to develop along the
dryline to our west during the afternoon hours. This convection
will likely move into our area Saturday evening and night. Beyond
Saturday night, differences in the models muddle the forecast,
however we do still expect rain and storms to occur. The
uncertainty lies in where the heaviest rain and possible severe
weather concerns may be. The GFS and Euro appear to be the closest
in agreement with the heaviest rains still located across our
Central Texas counties and points east and southeast of there.
Have continued with the highest PoPs in these areas during the day
on Sunday, and we will continue to assess to the severe threat
and heavy rain/flooding threat.

The weekend rains should end on Monday, if not sooner, and then a
few more days of quiet weather is expected. Some storms may be
possible along another front around the middle of the week.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  52  72  53  82 /  20  20   5   5   0
Waco                82  52  75  51  84 /  20   5   5   5   0
Paris               76  50  66  48  78 /  70  30  10  10   5
Denton              79  49  70  48  82 /  20  20   5   5   0
McKinney            78  50  68  48  80 /  50  20  10   5   0
Dallas              81  53  72  53  82 /  30  20  10   5   0
Terrell             80  51  71  49  81 /  70  20  10   5   0
Corsicana           79  52  73  52  83 /  60  20  10   5   0
Temple              82  51  76  53  84 /  20   5   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       77  49  72  49  87 /  10  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/82



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