Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240431 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

No significant changes were made from the previous TAF. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the period at the DFW
airports, but KACT will experience a few hours of MVFR cigs
Wednesday morning. Stratus clouds causing MVFR cigs between 1-2
kft will affect KACT between 12-16Z. Will prevail BKN cigs but
most of the stratus may remain outside the airport with just
SCT015 observed at KACT. Some of the stratus may creep into the
DFW area after sunrise, but is not expected to result in BKN
conditions at this time. South and southeast winds between 5-11
kts overnight will increase to 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon with
gusts around 20 kts. Wind speeds will decrease again near sunset.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/
Deep ridging throughout the U.S. Gulf Coast has returned sunshine
to water-logged areas, finally shunting the fiendish plume of
tropical moisture off to the northwest. Within the remaining
stream of moisture, showers and storms will impact portions of
West Texas and Oklahoma, but this activity will remain primarily
northwest of our area. Across Southeast and East Texas, rich
moisture remains beneath the mid-level ridge, and some diurnally
driven showers and storms have developed this afternoon. Although
surface dew points across our CWA might imply a similar moisture
profile, we are in a relative dry slot between the two areas of
convection. When combined with little forcing for ascent, the
cumulus field across North and Central Texas is showing little
depth despite little if any inhibition. Aside from a slight chance
in northwest zones, expect the remainder of the afternoon will be
quiet.

Large-scale subsidence should preclude any convective development
on Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures gain a degree or two.
On Thursday, the ridge will begin to weaken, opening the door for
some scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms across East
Texas. Rain chances will climb further on Friday as an easterly
component to the low-level flow allows moisture to surge in from
the east and tropical moisture aloft invades on the underbelly of
the decaying ridge. Weak forcing should limit the severe
potential, but rich moisture and unidirectional shear promoting
training could reintroduce some flooding concerns. The renewed
influx of deep tropical moisture will keep precipitable water
values above seasonal normals, maintaining daytime rain chances
during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

25



&&

.CLIMATE...

Days with high temperatures below 90 degrees this month:
   DFW Airport  5
   Waco         6
(most since August 2004)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  75  93  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
Waco                74  92  73  93  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Paris               73  92  72  92  73 /   5   5  10  20  10
Denton              74  93  72  94  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
McKinney            74  93  73  93  73 /   5   5   5  20  10
Dallas              76  94  76  94  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
Terrell             74  93  74  93  74 /   5   5   5  20  10
Corsicana           74  92  73  92  74 /   5   5   5  20  10
Temple              72  93  71  92  71 /   5   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       72  93  71  93  71 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/58


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