Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231055
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

The next in a succession of low pressure troughs was moving
eastward across the Great Basin early this morning. Light snow was
falling over portions of west-central and northwest Colorado early
this morning bringing an inch or so of snowfall to some valley
locations.

Models shift the low pressure trough eastward over western Utah
today, then over eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight. Lift
associated with the approaching trough combined with steep lapse
rates will result in widespread snowfall with localized
thundersnow a possibility. Modest moisture associated with this
system will limit snow amounts, but appears that persistence of
low density snowfall in the mountains will yield advisory level
snowfall over the next 24 hours. Valley accumulations will
generally be light, but as pointed out in the previous discussion,
potential convective snowfall bands may bring greater amounts to
some valleys. This mesoscale phenomena is typically poorly
positioned in mesoscale models so inadvisable to attempt to
identify specific valleys for WWA at this time. Day shift will
need to monitor closely for localized significant valley snowfall.
Instability and lingering moisture in northwest flow in the wake
of the trough should sustain snow showers along the divide
Saturday morning and concur with holding onto WWA`s until midday.
Most snow shower activity will diminish Saturday afternoon.

The unsettled pattern the region has fallen under will keep
temperatures unseasonably cool today and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Still some discrepancies showing up in the long term with the next
storm system. Some light snow showers will kick off over the
Continental Divide Saturday evening and increase in coverage and
intensity by midnight. This precipitation will continue as the
upper level trough moves overhead by daybreak Sunday with precip
finally ending by about noon. The EC has the same thoughts as far
as evolution of the system is concerned. However, the timing is
slower with light precip starting by early Sunday morning and the
heavier precip beginning around daybreak Sunday. Am sure a happy
medium will be reached but for now, suffice to say an unsettled
weekend.

Monday looks to be dry as yet another system drops down from the
Pacific Northwest. The EC and GFS are getting into better
agreement with this system but still plenty of time for these
solutions to change. For now, best chance for any significant
precipitation looks to be Wednesday through late Thursday night.
Plenty of time to get a better handle on this storm so please,
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Areas of snow will fall across the region over the next 24 hours
as the next in a series of storm systems moves across the area.
All TAF sites face a good chance of experiencing periods of
snowfall resulting in MVFR ceilings and visibility. CIGS below ILS
breakpoints will be frequent for KRIL, KEGE and KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Saturday for COZ003-004-
     009-010-012-013-017>019.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for UTZ023-
     025.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Saturday for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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