Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 310440
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1040 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

As high pressure slowly flattens out due to a passing trough this
evening, moisture will transport into the Four Corners from the
west and southwest. The 12z GFS initialized on the wet side from
the actual 12z GJT sounding with the NAM much more
representative. That being said, the NAM increases precipitable
water well in excess of an inch by Sunday while the GFS hangs
back about one third of an inch less. That`s a huge discrepancy
and seems to be an issue with handling the passing trough. The
SREF takes more of a middle ground, so thinking the NAM may be a
bit rambunctious with its solution. In any case, expecting showers
and thunderstorms to continue through the night tonight and focus
to be more in western Colorado and to the Continental Divide on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Low amplitude high pressure will remain over the southcentral US
through the week. Conditions will remain pretty similar Monday and
Tuesday with afternoon convection with wetting rains across the
Four Corners region and high-based convection across northeastern
Utah and northwestern Colorado. Temperatures will remain around or
just above normal for this time of year.

Moisture starts to increase again late Wednesday into Thursday as
an incoming trough from the west pushes the high pressure in place
to the east. A more classic monsoonal tap will increase available moisture
by the end of the work week. Moderate confidence on this solution,
since day to day model runs have been struggling with the onset of
this monsoonal tap.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will persist through the overnight hours
mainly across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado with mainly
light rain and gusty winds to 30 mph. VFR conditions are expected
at most TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday
afternoon and evening as deeper moisture and a disturbance works
its way across the region. This will lead to brief heavy rain in
stronger storms with brief MVFR conditions and lowered CIGS/VSBY
at times. Some activity will continue through the overnight
hours.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MDA


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