Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260559
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1159 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED A WEAK TRANSITIONAL RIDGE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
GENERAL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SO GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HAVE
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING...FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SMALL HAIL AND GUST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS. SNOW
LEVELS COULD BE LOCALLY AS LOW AS 9KFT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 10KFT TUESDAY. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW
EXPECTED WITH MAIN ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 10KFT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NRN UT/CO BORDER REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITHOUT A BONAFIDE CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
PRECEDING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL IT
PASSES EAST LATE FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WED
AND THU...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INTENSITY
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR OVERALL VERY
HIGH...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY UNDER THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 11KFT SO ONLY
IMPACTS OF SNOW WILL BE ON HIGHEST PEAKS AND ABOVE PASSES.

LONG TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY SUNDAY AND MOVING OVER OUR
REGION NEXT MONDAY. WILL SHOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND TOWARD THE
END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. IF THIS RIDGE MATERIALIZES AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST IT WOULD BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS SPRING TO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

-SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BUT ACTIVITY STILL PERSISTS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE. CIGS FROM -SHRA WILL BE BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL BR MAY FORM
ALONG RIVER/VALLEY BOTTOMS AROUND DAYBREAK IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING
OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 19Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE WEST YIELDS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WITH LOCALIZED TSRAGS. CIGS
FROM STORMS WILL BE BELOW ILS BREAKPOINT FOR MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY
TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...PF



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