Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 062213
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE N CA COAST TROUGH TUE WITH A FLAT
MOISTURE-INFUSED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MOISTURE IS DOWN A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 3 PM...THESE STORMS WERE MOSTLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BUT EXPECT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN AGAIN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
STORMS AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.

ON TUESDAY THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL START OUT AROUND AN INCH...AND
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WILL BE
FAVORED AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THAT AREA...AND MODELS SHOW THE
BEST MOISTURE OVER NW CO/NE UT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE WEST COAST LOW COMES ONSHORE ON WED/WED NIGHT. THE LOW THEN
OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN EVENTUALLY
BRUSHING THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY LATE FRI FOR A DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE...AND
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...THIS
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE KASE AND KEGE WITH A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF -TSRA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ILS
BREAKPOINTS MAY BE BRIEFLY BROKEN IN STORMS. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS
IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE



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