Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 221707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1007 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mid and high level moisture moving through an amplified ridge of
high pressure over the western U.S. will continue to bring clouds
and isolated to scattered light showers over the the Elkhead and
Park Mountains today. Snow accumulations in the higher reaches is
expected to be less than 2 inches and localized. The remainder of
the area will experience filtered sunshine and dry weather with
light diurnal winds. Weak warm air advection is expected to
continue to moderate temperatures across the region with afternoon
highs rising to between 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Showers diminish late in the afternoon as the ridge axis shifts
eastward over the area tonight. The ridge will remain `dirty` with
cirrus continuing to sweep overhead, especially across the north.
The ridge is flattened on Thanksgiving Day, but this isn`t
expected to have much impact on sensible weather across the area
with dry, partly sunny and mild conditions persisting.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Little change to forecast thinking through the weekend as high
pressure remains firmly in control. We`ll see some high clouds
from time to time and maybe a quick shower for our northern zones
Friday evening into Saturday morning but, outside of that, very
pleasant weather will continue. High temperatures will remain warm
reaching the low 60s for almost all valley locales.

Models still having a hard time trying to figure out what to do
with the next trough next Monday and Tuesday. The GFS pushes it
through the area starting Monday morning with the cold front
passing through late Monday night. If this occurs, some decent
precipitation is possible for the northern mountains and, to a
lesser extent, the central mountains. Temperatures will also drop
about 20 degrees once the front moves through. The EC? Nothing
doing as the trough pushes through but the energy supporting the
trough stays in Wyoming which will keep us very dry. Obviously,
too far out to tell which model is right so we`ll keep an eye on
things as we get closer to next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1004 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mid level and high clouds will continue pouring over the northern
CO mountains today with isolated mountaintop snow showers
expected, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
and over the entire area for the next 24 hours.




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