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000
FXUS63 KGRR 151929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/CLIMATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BRINGING MANY AREA NEAR TO BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST AFTERNOON SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WERE NEAR 20.
YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
NEAR ZERO YET AGAIN.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM AIR WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO
BRING A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT TO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO
BE RAIN. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST IS JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET BOTH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT PLUS HOW COLD IT WILL STAY ON SUNDAY. THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN WILL BLOCK THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM COMING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA SUNDAY.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. AT 1 PM IT WAS 18 DEGREES AT PELLSTON MICHIGAN...
22 DEGREES AT HOUGHTON LAKE AND 34 AT GRAND RAPIDS. GIVEN NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL GET
COLDER... EVEN WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE.

MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A SHALLOW INVERSION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT... BELOW 900 MB. FOR SUNDAY THE AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS
NOT ALL THAT WARM SO EVEN IF WE MIXED TO 900 MB HIGHS WOULD ONLY
BE IN THE LOWER 20S. MY 1000/925 MB THICKNESS RULE HAS A HIGH NEAR
20 DEGREES. THE NAM MOS IS FORECASTING ONLY 15 DEGREE AT GRR...
THAT WILL LIKELY BE TO COLD. THE ECMWF MOS HAS 21 DEGREE AT GRR
AND THE ECMWF SOUNDING WOULD GIVE MID 20S. SO GIVEN THE SNOW COVER
AND INVERSION BEING SHALLOW I WILL GO WITH LOW 20S FOR A HIGH
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY HIGH WILL START WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SO EXPECT
ANOTHER NEAR TO BELOW ZERO MORNING ON MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST AS THE STORM OVER THE PLAINS GETS CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKE SO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL
MUCH MONDAY NIGHT... MOSTLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IN THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. ONE SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH DURING
THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. THE OTHER WILL BE COMING THROUGH
DURING THE FRI/FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE FIRST SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME LOOKS TO
PRODUCE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW FOR THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DECENT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM ON TUE. THIS WAVE GETS PICKED UP BY A NRN STREAM TROUGH IN
CANADA AND LIFTS NE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO JUST
MISS US TO THE WEST...AND ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF
IT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WED...BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK IN ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING
TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE.

WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BEFORE THE
NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON FRI. THE UPPER FLOW
WILL HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL BY THIS TIME...AND WE WILL SEE AN
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WAVE IS
LOOKING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER SE THAN THE TUE NIGHT/WED WAVE AS
THERE IS NO NRN WAVE TO DIRECT IT TO THE NE UNTIL IT MOVES BY THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD MEAN P-TYPE MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN. THE TRACK AND P-TYPE RESULT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
FOR THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL HOLD WITH THE RA/SN MENTION IN THE FCST
FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

A BIT MORE COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN RATHER QUICK...SO PCPN CHCS LOOK FAIRLY LOW NEXT
SAT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE RELATIVELY MINIMAL.
LOWER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME
THIN BANDS OF STRATO CUMULUS RESULTING FROM BOTH A DIURNAL BOOST
AND SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD BRIEFLY SEE BKN CLOUDS. MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS.

SOME MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 08Z EVERYWHERE AND LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THERE ARE NOW FOUR FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...HASTING...EAGLE...HOLT
AND IONIA. MOST OF OUR RIVER POINTS ARE SHOWING SLOW RISES BUT
WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THAT
SHOULD SLOW DOWN ANY SNOW MELTING. ON TUESDAY THE SURGE OF WARM
AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANOTHER SURGE OF MELTING SNOW AND PUSH
MORE OF OUR RIVER POINTS TO ACTION STAGE. STILL I DO NOT SEE A
SHARP MELT OFF OF THE REMAINING SNOW AS IT ONCE AGAIN COOLS OFF
QUICKLY AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

IT APPEARS THAT SOME RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN
FOR SUN MARCH 16TH ACROSS THE AREA. OF OUR THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES WITH A LONG RECORD...GRAND RAPIDS HAS THE ONLY LEGITIMATE
CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD MIN. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR 3/16.

GRAND RAPIDS  3 DEGREES - 1900
MUSKEGON    -11 DEGREES - 1897
LANSING     -14 DEGREES - 1877



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...WDM
CLIMATE...NJJ