Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 070226
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM...CIRRUS MOVING EAST LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS DROPPING OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE MTNS. STILL...GIVEN ALL THESE FEATURES...
LOW TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TONIGHT. CHANGES MAINLY TO BLEND CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS INTO THE GOING FCST.

AS OF 630 PM...SOME CIRRUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. THE MTN CU HAS DISSIPATED AS WELL. TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE MODIFIED THE
TRENDS. HOWEVER...CURRENT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
DEVELOPING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

AS OF 230 PM...A VERY QUIET NEAR TERM FCST ON TAP FOR THE CWFA...AS
DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER CONFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A FEW PUFFS OF STRATOCU TRYING TO HOLD ON ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GA MTNS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SW NC. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE AREA IS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH CHILLY TEMPS FOR
EARLY MARCH.

TONIGHT...AS THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S IN THE MTNS AND MAINLY MID-UPPER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH RISING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE NWLY 850 MB FLOW SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH MAINLY 50S MTNS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
LLVL RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT MORNING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST SUN AM.
HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM STEADILY THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PEAK IN THE LOW 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

MONDAY...H5 TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS TX INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...RESULTING IN BROAD LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
WILL FALL UNDER OF A BAND OF JET DIVERGENCE FROM A 140 KT JET
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
TOP-DOWN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND NEAR THE TN
BORDER MAY SUPPORT LIGHT WET SNOW...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR RA WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EST FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE REGION AND A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROF OVER THE TX/NEW MEXICO REGION. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THE LONG RANGE MODELS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CLOSED H5 LOW...YET IT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO DEEPEN VERY MUCH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN LARGELY PERSISTS OVER THE FCST AREA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND BEYOND NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...DEEP LYR MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE NW GULF OF MEX...HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE UNTIL WE MOVE INTO THURS AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH MOVES A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A CAD PATTERN SETS UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE CAD WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS WILL THE DEEP LYR MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE CWFA ON TUES AND KEPT SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF WED
WITH SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THURS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK GOOD FOR FRI SO I INCREASED VALUES FROM HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW
END LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LVL
PATTERN AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE CAD LATER IN THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD START JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE PERIOD
WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME CIRRUS THIS EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. CALM WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMES SSW
AROUND 7 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT. KAVL WILL SEE N TO NW WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY WINDS ELSEWHERE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH



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