Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 281017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A RATHER SUMMERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS...BUT FORECAST
THINKING GENERALLY UNCHANGED FOR TODAY. MORE CLOUDS IN THE MTNS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

PREVIOUSLY FOR TODAY...500MB TROUGH SAG SE TOWARD WHATS LEFT OF
CRISTOBAL...AND WILL SEE UPPER LVL TROUGH SWING THROUGH...THIS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE MTNS. ALSO WILL SEE BORDERLINE BREEZY CONDS TODAY WITH NW
WINDS 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THE NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
UPSLOPE...LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER E...AND EVERYWHERE CLEARS OUT
FOR THE MOST PART. ENOUGH OF A PRES GRAD EXISTS...AT LEAST INTO
THE EVE...TO KEEP SOME LIGHT NW WINDS GOING...AND PREVENT PERFECT
RAD COOLING CONDS...SO LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP BETWEEN THE MID
40S N...TO THE MID 50S S. A FEW OF THE SHELTERED ELEVATED MTN VLYS
COULD DIP TO AROUND 40.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION...LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK E-NE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL
SIDE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70-75 ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND A MEAN JET POSITION TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...WILL LKLY SEE KLEB IN OUT OF FOG THROUGH
DAYBREAK...AND MIGHT SEE SOME DEVELOP AT AUG OR RKD. THINKING
EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL SEE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LYR MIXING TO PREVENT IT.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TODAY...WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KTS AT TIMES. EXPECT VLY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS TONIGHT. VFR
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

SUN - MON...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE LEFT THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WHERE IT IS FOR NOW.
LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST SWELL OF 5-7 FT
FROM CRISTOBAL LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY.
STILL COULD COME FURTHER W BY TONIGHT. NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SURGE TONIGHT...AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AS
WELL...BUT LOOKS TO STAY BLO ATTM.


.LONG TERM...

SAT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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