Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 271845
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
245 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area by early this evening.
This will result in scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will nose into the region
Friday and into the weekend as a low pressure moves south of the
area. This high will remain established over the Northeast
through early next week with an extended period of pleasant
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A cold front is moving into the area from the west this
afternoon. A line of showers has developed ahead of it, with the
possibility for a few thunderstorms as it tracks across the
northern part of the forecast area. Instability is fairly weak
so we are not expecting much excitement other than a few rumbles
of thunder and perhaps a heavy downpour and brief wind gust.
Behind the front, an area of cold advection showers has begun
developing over Quebec and may bring a few more showers to
northern areas before dissipating this evening, but the more
focused convection will be along the front. Any rain should be
dissipating this evening and over by midnight. Lows fall into
the upper 50s to low 60s. Fog may form especially in areas that
see some rain this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Light offshore northwest wind expected on Friday behind the
front with slightly drier air moving in. Wind speeds will be
light enough to allow a sea breeze to push inland from the coast
in the afternoon. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper
70s to near 80 degrees under substantial sunshine.

Low pressure tracks eastward to the south of New England Friday
night. Any rain with this feature should stay to our south,
while most of our area remains in the clear with temperatures
falling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the upper levels of the atmosphere an east coast trough/cut off
low will be present for much of the extended. The position of
this feature appears to be just far enough south and east of
Northern New England to keep us out of the bulk of the unsettled
weather.

Early in the period global models continue to show good
consistency with the evolution and track of low pressure
tracking just south of New England. With the forecast track
being east northeast, the northern extent of the rain shield
should stay just south of the region. A slight drift to the
north in track could result in some rain grazing south coastal
areas. With the models being consistent with keeping the rain
just south we will continue with a dry forecast for Saturday.
The latest 12km NAM also supports keeping the rain south of the
area.

For Sunday the the area of low pressure will continue to move east
over the Atlantic. High pressure will build over the area Sunday
into Monday. A second area of Low pressure will form along the mid
Atlantic Coast early next week. Models once again keep this system
mostly just south and east of the region...however southern and
coastal areas may get clipped by the precipitation shield late
Monday Night into Tuesday.

Weak high pressure will be over the area Wednesday. A weak front may
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This could trigger a
few showers/thunderstorms especially over the Mountains.

High temperatures will gradually warm from the 70`s this weekend
to the 80s early next week.

&&A

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...An area of showers and possibly an embedded
thunderstorm will move across the area this evening. The best
chance of thunderstorms will be from Whitefield (HIE) to Augusta
(AUG), though the chance was too low for inclusion in the TAF.
Rain this evening could moisten the low levels just enough to
produce some fog overnight, but there remains some uncertainty
on this. MVFR ceilings may persist through the night at
Whitefield and Lebanon which would limit the low level cooling
necessary for fog formation. Thus the potential for fog in our
usual locations is more uncertain than normal. Any fog will
dissipate Friday morning with VFR conditions becoming the rule
areawide. A sea breeze is likely along the immediate coastline
around midday Friday.

Long Term...
Expect VFR to MVFR Saturday through Monday. Patchy valley fog is
possible Saturday Night. A system approaching from the Mid
Atlantic Region on Tuesday may result in MVFR to IFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...South to southwest flow should remain just under
advisory levels this evening. A cold front moves into the Gulf
of Maine tonight with a shift to west or northwest winds. This
will fizzle out with the developing sea breeze circulation on
Friday.

Long Term...
Saturday into Sunday slow moving low pressure to our south will
produce winds just below SCA levels over the southern waters.
The slow movement of this system may result in waves building to
SCA levels later Saturday into Sunday.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Lulofs
AVIATION...Kimble/Lulofs
MARINE...Kimble/Lulofs



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