Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 020126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH
OR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN A
STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALOFT...SOME OF THE
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE COORDINATED POPS
WITH WFO BOX.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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